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Poker Hand Analysis
Hotter55 FT spot
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Topic: Hotter55 FT spot (Read 4122 times)
lucky_scrote
Hero Member
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Posts: 3531
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #15 on:
December 09, 2013, 10:57:56 AM »
Quote from: Oxford_HRV on December 09, 2013, 02:45:19 AM
we've gotta gamble, i'm happy calling, can be ahead a fair chunk of the time and dominating more than were dominated.
question for you guys, anyone going with T9s here? or folding?
If you want to lose money, yes. If he jams any two cards calling with t9s is bad.
(17.9%) 66+,A4s+,A7o+,K9s+,KTo+,QTs+ Is around about right because there is a chance villain isn't ATC but v v wide
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Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
action man
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Posts: 10673
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #16 on:
December 09, 2013, 01:48:45 PM »
im calling here vs any reg
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youthnkzR
Hero Member
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Posts: 2406
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #17 on:
December 09, 2013, 02:51:15 PM »
Think its good to call here.
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dwayne110
Sr. Member
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Posts: 673
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #18 on:
December 09, 2013, 06:58:32 PM »
What's the average hand, J-7, Q-7ish? surely have to call against the big stack bully who's shoving 9-5ss b-v-b (as he should!) ... Given the blinds are going through us, huge antes, low M, I'm calling fairly quickly in still spot... It's so the type of scenario where you find the fold then bleed away quickly... To me it's a great opportunity to get a healthy stack where we're likely +ev to win the hand and start thinking about the bigger money.
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paulhouk03
Cliqueless
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Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #19 on:
December 09, 2013, 07:21:49 PM »
pretty meh
I think I prefer to fold here and then jam atc next hand
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Just me
George2Loose
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Posts: 15214
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #20 on:
December 09, 2013, 07:49:49 PM »
Quote from: paulhouk03 on December 09, 2013, 07:21:49 PM
pretty meh
I think I prefer to fold here and then jam atc next hand
What if the big blind calls you with QJo?
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Ole Ole Ole Ole!
Doobs
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Posts: 16591
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #21 on:
December 09, 2013, 08:17:15 PM »
Quote from: dwayne110 on December 09, 2013, 06:58:32 PM
What's the average hand, J-7, Q-7ish? surely have to call against the big stack bully who's shoving 9-5ss b-v-b (as he should!) ... Given the blinds are going through us, huge antes, low M, I'm calling fairly quickly in still spot... It's so the type of scenario where you find the fold then bleed away quickly... To me it's a great opportunity to get a healthy stack where we're likely +ev to win the hand and start thinking about the bigger money.
Dan had already done the maths, so saying we are frequently ahead of his range is already covered. it seems that even though we are like EV in terms of our chip stack, we are losing because of ICM. There may be good reasons to ignore ICM, but not sure anyone is covering them. In game I frequently call and then kick myself for not sporting the unfavourable stacks.
I am struggling to think why we should overuse ICM. When I used to play STTs, if you played frequently against the same people, you could call wider to try and force SB to tighten his range. But I think if you do that what happens instead is that you end up in spite calling wars and it doesn't help either of you.
Sorry if this is as unhelpful as everyone else, I think the maths just always wins in these spots.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
paulhouk03
Cliqueless
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Posts: 7733
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #22 on:
December 09, 2013, 08:43:24 PM »
Quote from: George2Loose on December 09, 2013, 07:49:49 PM
Quote from: paulhouk03 on December 09, 2013, 07:21:49 PM
pretty meh
I think I prefer to fold here and then jam atc next hand
What if the big blind calls you with QJo?
We get there ?
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Just me
lolwutwasthat
Full Member
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Posts: 139
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #23 on:
December 10, 2013, 11:13:41 PM »
Snap ainec
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Posts: 8045
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #24 on:
December 10, 2013, 11:28:03 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on December 09, 2013, 01:55:53 AM
i wanna call.
+1
, we need to get all the chips right? some guy has 5mil, some more icm stuff pls
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lucky_scrote
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Posts: 3531
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #25 on:
December 11, 2013, 01:33:54 AM »
Quote from: AlexMartin on December 10, 2013, 11:28:03 PM
Quote from: pleno1 on December 09, 2013, 01:55:53 AM
i wanna call.
+1
, we need to get all the chips right? some guy has 5mil, some more icm stuff pls
Alex the "Tourneys are top heavy gotta come 1st" was a thoughts process that stopped when 5/10nl couldn't be beated for 10bb/100. ICM calc says that this is just a call if he is jamming 100% here. You can fold if the other players are really bad and likely to make horrid ICM plays so you can ladder for free but if the table is reggy then you need to make correct ICM calls.
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Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
mondatoo
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Posts: 22638
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #26 on:
December 11, 2013, 02:14:05 AM »
Quote from: lolwutwasthat on December 10, 2013, 11:13:41 PM
Snap ainec
I really don't understand this, someone has gone to the effort of showing that if villain is jamming 80% it's not a call, so on what planet is it not even close ?
Loads of variables that haven't been mentioned itt.
It's a fun spot.
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Derbylad
Sr. Member
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Posts: 320
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #27 on:
December 11, 2013, 03:33:17 AM »
Watched this hand play out... Confirmed final 3 were all supernova regs. Personally I'd prefer to fold and shove vs the short stack next hand (if we get the opportunity) or ladder up if someone shoves before and he/she is forced to call it off. Likely to find better spots considering and the potential 3k ladder + potential deals slightly alters the spot for me here.
Final 3 split ~ 24k 19k 19k when CL had ~5.5 compared to 2.5 and 2.4
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lucky_scrote
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Posts: 3531
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #28 on:
December 11, 2013, 11:55:36 AM »
Ahh interesting, I never thought about the likelihood of a deal. If it were close before, it feels that this would swing it towards a fold even more.
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Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
lucky_scrote
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3531
Re: Hotter55 FT spot
«
Reply #29 on:
December 11, 2013, 02:16:08 PM »
I think in game, with a few moments to act I'm right on the line with QJo. I am probably more like to fold. After all this discussion I think my calling range is pretty much anything better than QJo.
Logged
Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
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