FOBT's

[redarmi]

I have seen punters collect a ticket for £800 from a £20 stake and then shove the lot back in and the other score they had in their pocket at the outset. How much did he need to win to make him happy for £40?

The same people will get stuck 2k in live 1/1 ROE games then win it all back and carry on playing? Everyone else is sat with 200 or maybe a couple of nits with a monkey but even though that is -EV he will blow it all back. Do the gambling courses actually try to educate people about this? Like saying you are sat with 20 buy ins that you have bought lets get the fuck out of here?

I have worked in betting all my life apart from the last 4 months and I miss it loads. The Masters was painful to watch as it was always a big betting event and seemed not so much fun. I would say that 30,000 on the dole queue and 6,000 empty shops overnight would not be any politicians plan except Don Foster. It's his last term and he is gunning for these machines. Oh, and the treasury will get 800 million as well with the status quo.

Easily two thirds of shops will close and cripple a big lump of the stock market. It's fascinating. Big Campbell u turn coming soon or brushed under the carpet.

There is literally no chance that 2/3rds of shops would close.  They haven't tripled since the introduction of fobts and whilst a few things have changed the firms aren't going to just start shutting profitable shops even if they are only marginally profitable.  The firms are scaremongering to protect profits and it isn't as though there is any chance that they will be banned.  They may be regulated tighter but that is probably all.

[mulhuzz]

Don't think the banning of FOBTs would cause more than the merest of ripples on the market either.

[samurai]

Surely a hefty reduction in the maximum stake on roulette is the most likely scenario. Not a bad thing but obviously won't stop the slots addicts who plough just as much through the machines in a lot of cases. Which makes the whole exercise somewhat futile.

[arbboy]

Don't think the banning of FOBTs would cause more than the merest of ripples on the market either.

It would take 25% off ladbrokes share price overnight imo if they were banned completely.

[gouty]

I have seen punters collect a ticket for £800 from a £20 stake and then shove the lot back in and the other score they had in their pocket at the outset. How much did he need to win to make him happy for £40?

The same people will get stuck 2k in live 1/1 ROE games then win it all back and carry on playing? Everyone else is sat with 200 or maybe a couple of nits with a monkey but even though that is -EV he will blow it all back. Do the gambling courses actually try to educate people about this? Like saying you are sat with 20 buy ins that you have bought lets get the fuck out of here?

I have worked in betting all my life apart from the last 4 months and I miss it loads. The Masters was painful to watch as it was always a big betting event and seemed not so much fun. I would say that 30,000 on the dole queue and 6,000 empty shops overnight would not be any politicians plan except Don Foster. It's his last term and he is gunning for these machines. Oh, and the treasury will get 800 million as well with the status quo.

Easily two thirds of shops will close and cripple a big lump of the stock market. It's fascinating. Big Campbell u turn coming soon or brushed under the carpet.

There is literally no chance that 2/3rds of shops would close.  They haven't tripled since the introduction of fobts and whilst a few things have changed the firms aren't going to just start shutting profitable shops even if they are only marginally profitable.  The firms are scaremongering to protect profits and it isn't as though there is any chance that they will be banned.  They may be regulated tighter but that is probably all.

You say "a few things have changed"?

I just closed a betting shop in December. There is no scaremongering. You need to take over 30k a week over the counter without fobts to make a shop pay. I would say not even 25% of shops take that.

[arbboy]

I have seen punters collect a ticket for £800 from a £20 stake and then shove the lot back in and the other score they had in their pocket at the outset. How much did he need to win to make him happy for £40?

The same people will get stuck 2k in live 1/1 ROE games then win it all back and carry on playing? Everyone else is sat with 200 or maybe a couple of nits with a monkey but even though that is -EV he will blow it all back. Do the gambling courses actually try to educate people about this? Like saying you are sat with 20 buy ins that you have bought lets get the fuck out of here?

I have worked in betting all my life apart from the last 4 months and I miss it loads. The Masters was painful to watch as it was always a big betting event and seemed not so much fun. I would say that 30,000 on the dole queue and 6,000 empty shops overnight would not be any politicians plan except Don Foster. It's his last term and he is gunning for these machines. Oh, and the treasury will get 800 million as well with the status quo.

Easily two thirds of shops will close and cripple a big lump of the stock market. It's fascinating. Big Campbell u turn coming soon or brushed under the carpet.

There is literally no chance that 2/3rds of shops would close.  They haven't tripled since the introduction of fobts and whilst a few things have changed the firms aren't going to just start shutting profitable shops even if they are only marginally profitable.  The firms are scaremongering to protect profits and it isn't as though there is any chance that they will be banned.  They may be regulated tighter but that is probably all.

You say "a few things have changed"?

I just closed a betting shop in December. There is no scaremongering. You need to take over 30k a week over the counter without fobts to make a shop pay. I would say not even 25% of shops take that.

They might do if they would actually lay a bet.  Tried to get £200 on Jose at 40/1 next manure manager today in a bald fred shop.  Hardly a small market and got offered a score.  They might have to go back to basics and do what they say on the tin and become 'bookmakers' again, employ quality odds compilers on decent 6 figure salaries rather than the scores of £25k a year 'loltraders' they currently employ and actually lay a bet even to people who might actually beat them once in a while.

[TightEnd]

Don't think the banning of FOBTs would cause more than the merest of ripples on the market either.

It would take 25% off ladbrokes share price overnight imo if they were banned completely.

but ladbrokes, hills etc are a tiny part of the stockmarket these days

the net effect on the economy would be positive, the spending would be channelled elsewhere and lets face it in the digitall world nowadadys shops are an anachronism

[gouty]

Don't think the banning of FOBTs would cause more than the merest of ripples on the market either.

On budget day Hills dropped 6% on a 5% tax hike so imagine the drop if they were gone?

This is massive politically.

[TightEnd]

Don't think the banning of FOBTs would cause more than the merest of ripples on the market either.

On budget day Hills dropped 6% on a 5% tax hike so imagine the drop if they were gone?

This is massive politically.

no, it isn't. really it isn't.

[arbboy]

why is it massively politically? The report stated the economy would be better off if the fobt's were banned.  More jobs would be created overall than would be lost and far less social problems caused.  It sounds like a perfect vote winner to me for 99% of the population who don't gamble.  What am i missing?  

[gouty]

why is it massively politically? The report stated the economy would be better off if the fobt's were banned.  More jobs would be created overall than would be lost and far less social problems caused.  It sounds like a perfect vote winner to me for 99% of the population who don't gamble.  What am i missing?  

Because no government will ever look at the long term that way and turn down the revenue.

[arbboy]

they will make way more revenue long term with VAT/employers/ee's NI/income tax/corporation tax from the spend elsewhere and have far less social problems to invest in.  Racing should also be much better off as much of the same spend will be spent on racing and the levy rather than just straight into the tills of these 'bookmakers' who won't lay a bet unless they have gtd 3% edge.

[redarmi]

Don't think the banning of FOBTs would cause more than the merest of ripples on the market either.

On budget day Hills dropped 6% on a 5% tax hike so imagine the drop if they were gone?

This is massive politically.

It is totally academic though because they will never shut them down completely and as for the idea that the shops need to take 30k a week without FOBT's that is assuming that non of the other providers make changes.  It is very likely that Turf TV, SIS, the Gaming Commission, the revenue etc would all lower prices rather than see 2/3rds of shops shut as you suggest because they would lose too much revenue.  Those costs have gone up because shops can afford them with the extra revenues from FOBT's.

[mulhuzz]

No way of proving it, but if FOBTs being banned would really wipe 25% off Ladbrokes for anything even approaching a short term position then Laddies are fucked anyways.

Which they aren't, because it wouldn't.

[gouty]

Don't think the banning of FOBTs would cause more than the merest of ripples on the market either.

On budget day Hills dropped 6% on a 5% tax hike so imagine the drop if they were gone?

This is massive politically.

It is totally academic though because they will never shut them down completely and as for the idea that the shops need to take 30k a week without FOBT's that is assuming that non of the other providers make changes.  It is very likely that Turf TV, SIS, the Gaming Commission, the revenue etc would all lower prices rather than see 2/3rds of shops shut as you suggest because they would lose too much revenue.  Those costs have gone up because shops can afford them with the extra revenues from FOBT's.

I see. So the racecourses will not want their £6k a race from the betting shops anymore?  This is not how market forces work.