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Poker Hand Analysis
River Decision
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Topic: River Decision (Read 3116 times)
shipitgood
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Posts: 1769
River Decision
«
on:
June 17, 2014, 11:48:11 PM »
Reads: opponent has been really solid, has never got out of line so far. Quite tight, not been involved in many pots.
20nl hand:
In the BB with
Button raises to 60p, sb calls. I 3 bet to £2, button folds, small blind calls. Pot is £5. I have £73, villain has £43 at the start of the hand.
Flop;
Villian checks, I bet £2.80, villain calls. Pot is £10.60.
Turn;
Villian checks, I bet £5.30, villain raises to £15.90 total. I call.
River is
Villian checks, what are we doing here on the river? Pot is £42.40, villain has £27.10 left.
Standard set him in? Ever a check? Or just bet smallish?
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verndog158
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Posts: 2026
omgpoker
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #1 on:
June 18, 2014, 12:01:59 AM »
When he check raised the turn and checks the river, am never putting him all in, seems like your never getting called by worse. When you call his raise think your hand is fairly face up, so his check could be to induce you to bet. Guess he could have a weaker ace, but happy to check here and get to showdown
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Quote from: MassiveFish on September 25, 2014, 05:15:30 PM
ignore verndog he's a fool
'he had a deep run in EPT Barnsley'
mulhuzz
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Re: River Decision
«
Reply #2 on:
June 18, 2014, 12:05:59 AM »
I think bet folding is cool. Value from all the Aces you cooler, fold to his boats and flushes.
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Rexas
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Re: River Decision
«
Reply #3 on:
June 18, 2014, 12:11:40 AM »
Chris, I'm gonna have to disagree with you on this one buddy.
Just going on the river decision, ignoring pre and turn 0
If he check raises better than AK on this turn, then checks to you on the river, it's absolutely criminal. The board is very dry, his check raise on the turn looks very strong, and any and every hand we bet for value on this river would also call a jam. To my mind, he shouldn't really ever have us beat here, and if he does, then it's worth making a note that he doesn't like winning money. As such, I would assume he's pretty unlikely to have one of the full house combos, and is much more likely to have an AK/AQ/AJ type of hand. I'm a little torn between sticking him in and betting like £10, but on balance I don't think he's really folding given how much he's put in the pot, and we're never going to induce a raise.
«
Last Edit: June 18, 2014, 12:15:32 AM by Rexas
»
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
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Re: River Decision
«
Reply #4 on:
June 18, 2014, 12:28:57 AM »
It's quite a tough one, and to be honest the time bar you don't have much time to think at all.
I was thinking is he checking a better hand for deception. But again didn't really think that made a whole lot of sense.
The only hand's I beat really are AQ AJ, chopping with AK, versus all the hands that beat me/ flushes/ houses.
Don't know if it's a mistake but I checked.
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Rexas
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Re: River Decision
«
Reply #5 on:
June 18, 2014, 12:32:03 AM »
Quote from: shipitgood on June 18, 2014, 12:28:57 AM
It's quite a tough one, and to be honest the time bar you don't have much time to think at all.
I was thinking is he checking a better hand for deception. But again didn't really think that made a whole lot of sense.
The only hand's I beat really are AQ AJ, chopping with AK, versus all the hands that beat me/ flushes/ houses.
Don't know if it's a mistake but I checked.
I think this is a mistake, regardless of the outcome of the hand. Certainly very, very interesting if the villain is going to check raise the turn and, leaving himself with a really good stack for shoving the river, then check a hand that beats us.
Logged
Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
verndog158
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omgpoker
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #6 on:
June 18, 2014, 12:38:31 AM »
Quote from: mulhuzz on June 18, 2014, 12:05:59 AM
I think bet folding is cool. Value from all the Aces you cooler, fold to his boats and flushes.
Bet folding to me has to be the worst option, any amount we bet we are priced in to calling a jam. Seems if we don't shove and bet, it's to call off, which despite not being what I'd do here, after reading rexas reasoning, can't be bad I don't think
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Quote from: MassiveFish on September 25, 2014, 05:15:30 PM
ignore verndog he's a fool
'he had a deep run in EPT Barnsley'
JGill_DTD
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Posts: 2404
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #7 on:
June 18, 2014, 01:02:58 AM »
Pretty sure he always river jams boats and flushes on this river.
I think he hates the flush on the riv, so just wants to check/call with his Ax hands whilst rolling his eyes and being all like "sigh".
Think it has to be AQ or AJ in this spot, for him to be aggro on turn with a fd (unlikely) then miss out on all value when it comes in by checking is a pretty big horror show. Same applies to boats the way in which he has set this up to make it an easy jam.
Since I feel like he is always check/calling I don't see any other option than to put him in. Think bet/folding is pretty bad when he has 60% pot, can def be justified when we are both playing chunks but with stack sizes it can't be done
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Quote from: tomsom87 on January 10, 2014, 11:38:15 PM
Arise Sir Gill, The Oracle.
shipitgood
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Re: River Decision
«
Reply #8 on:
June 18, 2014, 01:20:44 AM »
Cheers everyone, spoke to a few people about it on Skype too, they were unanimous it should be a jam.
Would have been interesting if villain had jammed.
Given reads, it would probably be a fold, really struggling to find a call after the turn action.
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Rexas
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Posts: 1963
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #9 on:
June 18, 2014, 01:21:46 AM »
Quote from: shipitgood on June 18, 2014, 01:20:44 AM
Cheers everyone, spoke to a few people about it on Skype too, they were unanimous it should be a jam.
Would have been interesting if villain had jammed.
Given reads, it would probably be a fold, really struggling to find a call after the turn action.
What did he have in the end?
Logged
Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1769
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #10 on:
June 18, 2014, 01:25:14 AM »
He had JQ o/s lol
Basically I should have bet 20p to induce a shove haha
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Rexas
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Posts: 1963
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #11 on:
June 18, 2014, 01:26:33 AM »
Quote from: shipitgood on June 18, 2014, 01:25:14 AM
He had JQ o/s lol
Basically I should have bet 20p to induce a shove haha
Cheers for buying me dinner, chris
Logged
Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
shipitgood
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1769
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #12 on:
June 18, 2014, 01:29:28 AM »
Quote from: Rexas on June 18, 2014, 01:26:33 AM
Quote from: shipitgood on June 18, 2014, 01:25:14 AM
He had JQ o/s lol
Basically I should have bet 20p to induce a shove haha
Cheers for buying me dinner, chris
And my cut?
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mulhuzz
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Posts: 3016
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #13 on:
June 18, 2014, 01:31:26 AM »
Quote from: mulhuzz on June 18, 2014, 12:05:59 AM
I think bet folding is cool. Value from all the Aces you cooler, fold to his boats and flushes.
I misread stack sizes and action. Just pile
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Rexas
Hero Member
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Posts: 1963
Re: River Decision
«
Reply #14 on:
June 18, 2014, 01:32:54 AM »
Quote from: shipitgood on June 18, 2014, 01:29:28 AM
Quote from: Rexas on June 18, 2014, 01:26:33 AM
Quote from: shipitgood on June 18, 2014, 01:25:14 AM
He had JQ o/s lol
Basically I should have bet 20p to induce a shove haha
Cheers for buying me dinner, chris
And my cut?
Well, if I was completely right, it was £27.10 :p
Logged
Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
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