Rate my terri-punt.

[Rexas]

Mid-way into the money in the Goliath. Blinds are currently 10k/20k/2k, and we are playing around 600k effective.

Folds round to us on the button with   . We open to 40k, small blind folds, big blinds calls. BB has so far been seeing a lot of flops, often open limping, rarely being the aggressor pre, but messing around on a bunch of flops. Pot at this stage is 108k.

Flop comes    , BB leads for 40k. We call (?) with our backdoor diamonds, two overs and (imo) a reasonable chance of having the best hand at this stage. Pot is 188k.

Turn comes  , and BB again leads for 40k. We call (?). Pot is 268k.

River comes  , BB once more leads for 40k, and we make it 150k.

Thoughts on bluff?

[muckthenuts]

It's so hard to really ever know what players in these events are up to at times like this, but i'd be fairly confident in this instance your opponent probably has something marginal and is blocker betting.

Whether this means your raise gets through or not is another matter and probably in game read/feel becomes your biggest friend in a spot like this.

[bromley04]

Why can't the board run out like that when we hold 77 lol!

Nice to meet you today mate.

[baldock92]

I think I prefer a raise on the turn with the nut flush draw, and then a 2/3 pot bet on the river if you think his hand is marginal. All very dependent on many factors though.

[MC]

You rep very little that makes any sense on the river. Whether villain can work this out is another matter, but it's a problem.

[Rexas]

You rep very little that makes any sense on the river. Whether villain can work this out is another matter, but it's a problem.

Can I not legitimately have a flush here? Obviously with the in my hand then if I'm trying to rep something specific it's the nut flush. I doubt I'd raise any flush on the turn, and I'm sure I'd raise them all on the river against this bet. Obvs somewhat tricky for me to have a fh though. Also, admittedly, he's unlikely to know that.

I think I prefer a raise on the turn with the nut flush draw, and then a 2/3 pot bet on the river if you think his hand is marginal. All very dependent on many factors though.

I thought the turn was the easiest decision of them all just based on pure maths, although again because villain is unlikely to be considering our range in much depth, this is almost certainly a better line to take to get a fold from something marginal. Maybe I'm just thinking too deep into stuff :p

Why can't the board run out like that when we hold 77 lol!

Nice to meet you today mate.

Pleasure to meet you too pal, and nice to see you posting in the PHA! Obviously we didn't stand up when we were all in, must remember to do that next time...

It's so hard to really ever know what players in these events are up to at times like this, but i'd be fairly confident in this instance your opponent probably has something marginal and is blocker betting.

Whether this means your raise gets through or not is another matter and probably in game read/feel becomes your biggest friend in a spot like this.

Yh, I was pretty sure he'd have the rear end of the straight at maximum here, hence just taking the maths ott and making a move if necessary on the river (just because these hands can't really improve unless they have a diamond in them, and if they do then we obvs improve better, so bluffing ott or otr seemed pretty similar to my mind since his range can't get all that stronger vs our exact hand).

[pleno1]

would you really not raise a flush on the turn? that seems kinda ridiculously given opponent.

[OverTheBorder]

I guess his stack size is important, he is not going to fold ever if he has 400-500k left based on description of player.  He is getting like 4-1 and he will just mutter value and call. I don't see much he leads that hasn't improved, it's either a monster draw or one pair straight draw hands which have hit. Your call call screams Ah IMO. Also with villain description if your going to bluff it needs to be tournament crippling for him. He may sigh fold if it costs him his tournament but not anytime else

[baldock92]

I think I prefer a raise on the turn with the nut flush draw, and then a 2/3 pot bet on the river if you think his hand is marginal. All very dependent on many factors though.

I thought the turn was the easiest decision of them all just based on pure maths, although again because villain is unlikely to be considering our range in much depth, this is almost certainly a better line to take to get a fold from something marginal. Maybe I'm just thinking too deep into stuff :p

For an event like the goliath maybe the thinking is too deep

[Oxford_HRV]

Players like the villain who are fishy and non aggro just don't bet without pairs or V nice combo draws, I like raising the turn as a bluff, you rep a bunch more hands. I'd fold flop vs this type of player, his hand is already very pair heavy and I'd raise more pre btn vs his bb 55k for me, want to charge him to be lucky! Hard to get fish to fold anything they bet thrice

[SuuPRlim]

Raise the turn or fold the river IMO.

Too obvious this line

[Flash92]

Raise the turn or fold the river IMO.

Me too, and I think I prefer to raise the turn.

[WotRTheChances]

fold flop
raise or call turn
fold river

[Rexas]

Players like the villain who are fishy and non aggro just don't bet without pairs or V nice combo draws, I like raising the turn as a bluff, you rep a bunch more hands. I'd fold flop vs this type of player, his hand is already very pair heavy and I'd raise more pre btn vs his bb 55k for me, want to charge him to be lucky! Hard to get fish to fold anything they bet thrice

Yh, I think I got a little screwed up in fancy play syndrome here :p Raising turn much better, at least then if we decide to go for it on the river we can make it a more credible bluff and put his tournament life on the line on the river. Definitely does make sense to raise more pre too.

would you really not raise a flush on the turn? that seems kinda ridiculously given opponent.

Not generally, given that I would perceive the min bet on the turn as weakness, so I wouldn't want to raise my nutted hand and chase away his weak perceived range. Is this a bad way of thinking? Also, the reasons I've just given for not raising the turn with a flush seem like fantastic reasons to raise the turn with this hand :p

[cambridgealex]

fold flop
raise or call turn
fold river

100% this, fold flop is not even close.

As my good friend Mitch says "that's a callers flop, not a raisers flop".