This is a hand a friend of mine played recently, which I think is kinda interesting from the villains perspective.
Hand is from 50nl 6 max zoom,
UTG (101.62) opens to 1.50
UTG +1 (16.98) calls
SB (32.99) calls
BB (116.01) looks down at
and raises to 7.
UTG calls, others fold.
FLOP (16.23)
BB continues for 10.25
UTG calls
TURN (35.81)
BB continues for 19.75
UTG calls
RIVER (74.50)
BB sets UTG in for his remaining 64.62.
Assuming we are aware that UTG is a good, winning reg, it seems a little thin to me to go for all three streets with AA here. Especially on this exact river card, it seems pretty hard to get called by worse. There has been some debate around the perceived range of UTG here. I reckon UTG can legitimately have all the pocket pairs plus a few big suited broadways that could get to the river, although not much else given the stacks behind. Given this sort of range pre, the flop bet feels fine and the sizing feels pretty good too. However, on the turn, I think betting to set up a river jam is a little bit optimistic. I would prefer a turn check/call, partly to keep our range wide(r) and to have a shot at getting another street on good rivers if checked back to us.
This exact river card seems pretty terrible for us though given the way we've played the hand, since pretty much everything should now fold to the jam. Our hand is pretty face up, basically everything has bricked unless
got optimistic on the flop, and the only hand that might consider calling us now is
, which even then for well over 100bbs seems like a pretty clear fold. At the same time, I don't particularly want to check our hand. If we do, we should be check folding (which seems fine) but I think we miss value since all those one pair hands check behind. There seems to be a reasonable argument for betting $20 and folding to a jam or something weird like that to try and extract a little value from those one pair hands we do beat. This does seem like a better thin value spot if we'd checked the turn though.
What do we think?