Stoke City FC

[arbboy]

What would you price us to be bottom/ bottom 3 after 8 games? Trying to get on a few quid on using these request a bet things a few bookies seem to offer now.

Home to the Arse, United, Chelsea & Southampton
Away at Everton, WBA, Newcastle & Man city

Stoke will not be a fav to win any of those first 8 games.  Maybe close to a flip at home to Soton depending on the summer dealings.

They will be 5/1 dogs at home to Ars, Manure and Chelski roughly.  Probably a 2/1 slight dog at home to Soton.  12/1 away at Man C, 7/2 away at WBA and Newcastle and 6/1 away at Everton.

In points terms they will be in for roughly 0.7 points as a 5/1 home dog in those 3 games.  Soton 1.3 points.  Man City 0.4 points.  WBA/Newc 0.9 points each.  Everton 0.6 points.  Therefore expected points roughly in first 8 games is around 6.2 points.  So when Stoke have had a awful start according to the media and sit on 7 points after 8 games looking like they are struggling remember they are less likely to go down than they were pre season because they will be ahead of the EV curve.  The price will not relate to this however.  Hopefully they will be sat on 3 points (only 3 behind expectations) and it will be 'another terrible start from Hughes and his slow starters and we will be sub 2/1 to go down.

Well the slow starters haven't had the slow start this year.  8 points (with defensive injury issues) with a game to go of the first 8.  Man City away so we should probably just chalk up 8 points after 8 games.

9/4 in a place top 10 looks a very generous bet to me.  Leicester are odds on in a place for top 10 and the spreads have them only half a point ahead of us on the season long points market.

[arbboy]

8 points after 8 games.  (6.2 EV points pre season after 8 games).  We are a bigger price to go down now than pre season even though we over performed.  incredible.  GL to all the mugs who wanted to lock in a profit because we had a tough start! We are 4th bottom as well!  Imagine if we had run bad and not ahead of EV.   Maybe the markets nowadays actually realise the schedule. who knows?


Maybe the markets know nowadays and another edge has gone and i am closer to getting a job!  Why couldn't leicester win tonight and send Stoke into the bottom 3?

[pleno1]

Looks like Stoke going to be in bottom 3 after tonight. Next 5 games are all winnable though and so important to their season. Will be interesting. To see how they come out of this spelled 5 games. Go well and can be top half, run bad and can be looking very bad. Funny game football

[baldock92]

Yesterday seems to be a big swing in the argument for "Hughes out" by the looks of things.

[arbboy]

Nice to get back on track today.  Butland didn't have a save to make by all accounts.  11 points 10 games.  Could be a lot worse.  Not far off full strength side today.  Crouch didn't make the bench so not sure if he is injured or just rested totally?

[DungBeetle]

Horrendous game of football.  Blanket defence and we couldn’t even summon a decent effort on goal.  We are clueless when teams come with that approach.

[arbboy]

Horrendous game of football.  Blanket defence and we couldn’t even summon a decent effort on goal.  We are clueless when teams come with that approach.

Must admit was surprised your boys were decent odds against today.  Suppose with Allen back for us we looked strong on paper compared to previous weeks.  Sounds like Stoke got lucky though as you had all the stats massively in your favour.

[DungBeetle]

Horrendous game of football.  Blanket defence and we couldn’t even summon a decent effort on goal.  We are clueless when teams come with that approach.

Must admit was surprised your boys were decent odds against today.  Suppose with Allen back for us we looked strong on paper compared to previous weeks.  Sounds like Stoke got lucky though as you had all the stats massively in your favour.

Wouldn't say Stoke were lucky - as you say Butland wasn't busy at all.  Zouma was very good today.

We have a team built to play away from home at the moment and don't really know what to do when we have to drive the agenda.  We beat Arsenal, but that game turned on it's head in 15 minutes.  Apart from that fun draw with Liverpool (who came to attack), thumped by Man City, 0-0 v Brighton and uninspiring defeat to your lads.  Away from home it's a different story - there's probably value blind backing Watford away and laying us at home to be honest - it's like night and day!

[arbboy]

Horrendous game of football.  Blanket defence and we couldn’t even summon a decent effort on goal.  We are clueless when teams come with that approach.

Must admit was surprised your boys were decent odds against today.  Suppose with Allen back for us we looked strong on paper compared to previous weeks.  Sounds like Stoke got lucky though as you had all the stats massively in your favour.

Wouldn't say Stoke were lucky - as you say Butland wasn't busy at all.  Zouma was very good today.

We have a team built to play away from home at the moment and don't really know what to do when we have to drive the agenda.  We beat Arsenal, but that game turned on it's head in 15 minutes.  Apart from that fun draw with Liverpool (who came to attack), thumped by Man City, 0-0 v Brighton and uninspiring defeat to your lads.  Away from home it's a different story - there's probably value blind backing Watford away and laying us at home to be honest - it's like night and day!

Zouma is amazing for us.  Looks a certainty to be our player of the season from his early showings for me.  NExt two months for Stoke very important.  Next ten games very winnable.  Only Spurs away in that spell which is tough.  (Scousers at home if you consider that a hard game nowadays)

[TightEnd]

Jack Butland out of Germany game after breaking a finger in training this morning.

[Longines]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/13/bet365-chief-exec-denise-coates-becomes-uks-highest-paid-boss/

The co-founder and chief executive officer of gambling firm Bet365 paid herself a record £199m last year, as the company posted a healthy £525m profit for the 2016/17 financial year.

Denise Coates is now the highest-paid boss in Britain, and is significantly wealthier than the previous titleholder, Sir Martin Sorrell, the chief executive of WPP, who earned £48.1m last year.

On top of the £199m salary, Coates collected £18m in dividend payments.

[Archer]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/13/bet365-chief-exec-denise-coates-becomes-uks-highest-paid-boss/

The co-founder and chief executive officer of gambling firm Bet365 paid herself a record £199m last year, as the company posted a healthy £525m profit for the 2016/17 financial year.

Denise Coates is now the highest-paid boss in Britain, and is significantly wealthier than the previous titleholder, Sir Martin Sorrell, the chief executive of WPP, who earned £48.1m last year.

On top of the £199m salary, Coates collected £18m in dividend payments.

Nice work. Giving pleno a run for his money 

Without including the dividend,  £199m under PAYE nets down to £105.48m after tax and nic. In addition, employer nic over 27mil.

No doubt further contributions to her charitable trust to follow.

[pleno1]

I think Stokes problem is they don't really have much identity. Whats their plan for going forward? They are kind of team who like to lump it, 4 6ft+ defenders, but then they have Jese as a striker who doesn't fancy a challenge and Shaqiri who is obviously limited aerially. Fletcher and Allen huff and puff but there seems to be a lack of class.

What happened to Berahino? He seems to not get a sniff anymore, seems a little odd? Bench of Charlie Adam, Glen Johnson and Crouch seems very old/limited.

Even with set pieces now, they don't look as good, good delivery from Shaqiri, but Wimmer, Martins Indi aren;t that scary and then the rest of the team isn't built for it I don't think. It almost feels like they are a poor version of West Brom. Will likely survive due to there being a lot of terrible teams this year.

A lot of teams seem to be overperforming now due to new managers, Palace/Everton should be safe.

Can still get up to 5/1 on stoke going down. Thoughts?

[Doobs]

I think Stokes problem is they don't really have much identity. Whats their plan for going forward? They are kind of team who like to lump it, 4 6ft+ defenders, but then they have Jese as a striker who doesn't fancy a challenge and Shaqiri who is obviously limited aerially. Fletcher and Allen huff and puff but there seems to be a lack of class.

What happened to Berahino? He seems to not get a sniff anymore, seems a little odd? Bench of Charlie Adam, Glen Johnson and Crouch seems very old/limited.

Even with set pieces now, they don't look as good, good delivery from Shaqiri, but Wimmer, Martins Indi aren;t that scary and then the rest of the team isn't built for it I don't think. It almost feels like they are a poor version of West Brom. Will likely survive due to there being a lot of terrible teams this year.

A lot of teams seem to be overperforming now due to new managers, Palace/Everton should be safe.

Can still get up to 5/1 on stoke going down. Thoughts?

The best price is 3/1.  The sunbets price is 11/4 on their website.  If anyone is offering 5/1, they aren't going to be happy with you.  Betfair was about 3/1 when I looked last night.

I wouldn't be in any rush to lay 3/1 though.   It seems overpriced when you look at the others around them, so might still be a smidge of value.

[arbboy]

Huge month ahead to seal safety after beating WBA.  Huddersfield home and away.  Newcastle and Watford (seems a good time to be playing them) at home as well as the schedule relents slightly and we start picking up easier spots to get wins.  Chelsea away and Manure at home until the end of January to complete the month.  Bournemouth and Leicester away in Feb and Brighton at home before a brutal March with Soton/Arsenal away and Everton/Man City at home.

No idea when TFT are planning on shifting the Stoke back to lay relegation bet but i think its unlikely they will be getting much shorter than they were before WBA any time soon.