2014-15 NFL Discussion thread

[The Camel]

You think Lockette was open wide enough when Wilson threw the ball?

[The Camel]

Last post and I'm going to bed.

Think some guy has solved the situation on 2+2

"I think this is what happened:

1. Seahawks are in 3 WR/1TE/1RB personnel on first and goal at 5, run down to 1 yard line vs. Pats base defense
2. Seahawks very much want to run the same play again vs same Pats defense, but Pats don't want to get trapped in same personnel matchup so they run their goal line out there even though Seahawks still have 3/1/1 and haven't subbed
3. As pointed out before, it is unheard of for the defense to have 8 DL/LB in the game against 3 WR huddled, so the Seahawks are probably confused at this point because this is uncharted waters, so they decided to keep the 3 WR out there and throw.

When Pats subbed and no longer let them run 2nd down with the same personnel matchup (which would have been optimal) Seattle should have gone jumbo and ran goal line vs goal line. But they were likely confused and hurried."


Fascinating situation.

2+2 is a seething pile of poo mostly. But there are some very sharp minds too.

[bobby1]

@jkatzenstein

Seahawks CB Tharold Simon: "How do you throw the ball when you got Marshawn Lynch?"

tbf Simon needs to be quiet the way he played again tonight. Been taken apart again after Lane went down injured.

[bobby1]

You think Lockette was open wide enough when Wilson threw the ball?

It was a bad pass from Wilson and now I've seen it a second time they deffo had a decent match up. Wilson leads him into the defender with the pass instead of hitting him body side and letting Lockette try to get in using his strength.

Was a superb game and would have been tough on either team to lose, just such a pity to lose it that way. I think on the other foot Pats manage that situation better and Brady probably executes it better too. The timeout Seattle took after Kearse catch put them in the situation they ended up in re managing the last timeout.

[TightEnd]

The Media is KILLING Sea for it's bad play call in the end game.   Amazingly, they are ignoring the HORRENDOUS errors Belichick made at the end of each half.

Says http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/1160899.aspx

[The Camel]

The Media is KILLING Sea for it's bad play call in the end game.   Amazingly, they are ignoring the HORRENDOUS errors Belichick made at the end of each half.

Says http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/1160899.aspx

I posted this last night http://smartfootball.com/defense/buddy-ryans-polish-goalline-tactic#sthash.e2E9ED06.GMbp8lVN.dpbs

Just a brilliant idea (if going massively against the spirit of the game - but that wouldn't normally stop Belichick).

As for taking a timeout at the end of the game, I was shouting at my tv for him to take it, but I've seen it suggested on forums that he was happy to let his defense win or lose the game because he didn't want everyone's last memory of Tom Brady in SuperBowls to be throwing desperation passes in an attempt to move 60 yards in 30 seconds.

Might be some mileage in that theory.

[TightEnd]

I thought the Seattle play call was horrendous last night, beginning to revise my view a bit though

sort of a "stupid if it fails, genius if it works" situation

[Tal]

I thought the Seattle play call was horrendous last night, beginning to revise my view a bit though

sort of a "stupid if it fails, genius if it works" situation

Very much this.

If Wilson gets intercepted at Lambeau for his alleyoop, we say the same, I suppose.

[The Camel]

I thought the Seattle play call was horrendous last night, beginning to revise my view a bit though

sort of a "stupid if it fails, genius if it works" situation

Apparently New England subbed in their goal line package as soon the first down play finished.

Usually the offense substitutes first and the defense brings in players to counter their formation.

Seattle stil had their first down players in and it meant all three WRs had single man coverage.

I think it was the perfect play call. Kearse is obviously supposed to get a pick on Malcolm Butler and pretty much whiffs. Still it looks like Lockette should make the catch to me.

You don't get much more wide open on the goal line than that.

[TightEnd]

i think Wilson stares Lockette down, allows Butler to jump on the ball

an amazing defensive play, though

and yes the call against the jumbo defense makes more sense asa  viewer once you aren't in the immediate aftermath of it

still fancy Lynch to get it in from the 1 in two attempts, mind   

[The Camel]

Decent article.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/02/russell-wilson-interception-play-call-pete-caroll-darrell-bevell-super-bowl-xlix-malcolm-butler

Bevell is a tosser for blaming Lockette.

Carroll comes out of it with a lot of credit for accepting the blame.

[tikay]

From CalvinAyre.com




NEVADA SPORTSBOOKS POST $116M SUPER BOWL HANDLE;

Sports bettors wagered just under $116m on the Super Bowl with Nevada sportsbooks, falling just short of 2014’s record $119.4m haul. Nevada Gaming Control Board chairman A.G. Burnett reported that unaudited figures put the state’s 191 licensed sportsbooks’ net win at $3.26m, representing a 2.8% hold, the lowest figure since the 0.8% win from Green Bay’s defeat of Pittsburgh in 2011. This year’s win was also a fraction of last year’s record $19.7m payday.

http://calvinayre.com/2015/02/03/business/nevada-sportsbooks-second-highest-super-bowl-handle/


I was quite surprised how low that number was (the amount staked), thought it would be a lot more.

[bobby1]

I think it ended up being a plan that went wrong. My guess is they lined up with 3 WR to make NE take men out of goal line D to get extra cover on WR but the intention was still to run Lynch.

When the Pats stayed as they were it seems a convo took place between Bev and Caroll  where Bev asked shall we throw it as it's a good match up and Caroll said yes. The prob I still have with it is there is no need to be in 3 wr set for deception any way, just stick the goal line pound it in guys and do the sensible thing. Once the match up was viewed as a good one they then decided to throw it but was no need for them to send that formation out needing a yard to win a SB.

[TightEnd]

Sam Monson @PFF_Sam

"I still think passing it was wrong, but I can see why they did it. Patriots just saw it coming -"

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/02/analysis-notebook-super-bowl-xlix-that-play/


(think that is a really good analysis)

[AdamM]

Thoroughly enjoyed my first season as an NFL punter/viewer.
In fact I can't remember enjoying a season of sport as much.

Over the 17 week regular season, I had 4 winning weeks, plus the divisional championship weekend and of course the Super Bowl (which all my bets came in for).
Of the picks I made, there were 75 winners and 21 losers.
Of the 13 losing regular season weeks, 9 of them were due to a single result (so the other 4 were obviously disasters).
The 4 winning weeks were 3, 4, 3 and a particularly impressive 7 game accumulator.
Although, it was one of the 3 game accumulators that paid the biggest returned, because it included my pick of the Bills to beat the Jets on the road that, despite the Jets being 1-6-0, everyone, bookies included had the home team as solid favourites.

For the Super Bowl I had any Patriots win, Patriots by 1-6, over 48 points total and at the Super Bowl party I went to I picked Patriots by 5 (tactical as Pats by 3 and 7 were both gone so I had a shot at two splits plus an outright) which got me half the pot. Total profit for Super Bowl night was £52.02

Favourite teams for the season were Patriots who won 9 times when backed, but did kill a bet with their week 17 loss to Bills, and also the Colts who I picked 9 wins and 1 loss for.

The main strategy though was betting against the season’s dogs. I picked against Raiders 8 times, but they stuck it in me week 16 by beating the Bills. Against Jets 9 times, but again, they bit me back in week 10 when they beat the Steelers (which I predicted, but then second guessed myself), and the AFC terrible twins of Jaguars and Titans who I successfully picked against 7 & 9 times respectively without a slip.

Boggy teams were Steelers who lost when I backed them 4 times, Bills who won 2 they should have lost and lost 2 they should have won, but worst of all by a mile was the Saints. “Always back the Saints at home” they said. “Never lose” they said. 5 home losses on the bounce, 4 of which killed bets, plus an away win against the Steelers as an extra kick in the teeth. Hands down, my boggy team of the season.

Over all bankroll for my bets was £45 (including my £5 entry into the sweep)
Total profit for season is £35.85 which is a 80% ROI, which I'm pretty happy with.

Can’t wait to get stuck into the 2015/16 season and maybe start upping the bets as I get more confident

What the hell am I going to do till September now?!?!