UK General Election 2015

[arbboy]

Ladbrokes reporting taking "large amounts of cash" on CON majority at 11/2

ukip switchers winning them marginal seats, late/last week surge (is the theory)

Who are these clueless loaded mugs at ladbrokes who can get 8/1+ on betfair for as much as they want?

[George2Loose]

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

Cameron says UKIP may get no seats. The bookies are giving 12/1 for that so if you believe that don't hesitate....


Clacton/Carswell will be held

next two are farage/s thanet and akers/thurrock

I am on 2, 1 is favourite. both probably ok at 7/2 4/1. i think farage might well lose. prefer thurrock for the second seat

the ashcroft polls at 4pm showed ukip being squeezed in marginals back to conservatives (which the market has been telling you has been happening as con seat numbers have been rising ) but it shouldn't affect seats where ukip has a real chance like the three above

Reckless unlikely to hold his seat?

[TightEnd]

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

Cameron says UKIP may get no seats. The bookies are giving 12/1 for that so if you believe that don't hesitate....


Clacton/Carswell will be held

next two are farage/s thanet and akers/thurrock

I am on 2, 1 is favourite. both probably ok at 7/2 4/1. i think farage might well lose. prefer thurrock for the second seat

the ashcroft polls at 4pm showed ukip being squeezed in marginals back to conservatives (which the market has been telling you has been happening as con seat numbers have been rising ) but it shouldn't affect seats where ukip has a real chance like the three above

Reckless unlikely to hold his seat?

Yes

nowhere near as popular as carswell, and conservatives from 2015 who voted ukip in the by-election will switch away from him. he is 6/4+ to hold.

[George2Loose]

Surely he knew this when he switched?

[TightEnd]

look at the aschcroft polls

Concern for LAB is Ukippers in key marginals are much more likely to rule out them than Tories—eg could swing Wirral W/esther mcvey which is target 40 and they need 50+ ideally

[TightEnd]

Surely he knew this when he switched?

of course

man of principle

possibly.

possibly not (hated by the conservative party, jumped before he was pushed)

[david3103]

Surely he knew this when he switched?

of course

man of principle

possibly.

possibly not (hated by the conservative party, jumped before he was pushed)

Will get more money for less work as a UKIP MEP no doubt.

[mulhuzz]

Why Everyone but the SNP is wrong about the economy.

And why the Tory lie will scare you into voting for them.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

this is long, but worth reading. If you don't know Paul Krugman, he's a Nobel laureate in economics.

[Doobs]

Why Everyone but the SNP is wrong about the economy.

And why the Tory lie will scare you into voting for them.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

this is long, but worth reading. If you don't know Paul Krugman, he's a Nobel laureate in economics.

If he was a scientist he'd realise that he should analyse the evidence before making claims that the Government got their policies wrong. 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/06/paul-krugman-got-it-wrong-austerity-jeffrey-Sachs

He'd also realise that the Government didn't introduce much austerity at all when the crisis was in full swing. 

[DMorgan]

the guardian comes out for labour http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/01/guardian-view-britain-needs-new-direction-needs-labour

Interesting editorial, just a few things that this campaign has made me think about

I do wonder whether the lower and middle income Conservative voters really understand how £12bn of welfare cuts will affect them? The right leaning media has done a fantastic job of getting people to think that welfare cuts come out of the pockets of the lazy and the scroungers and into the pockets of 'hard working people'. That approach really appeals to the core Tory vote so that was the gist of the last election campaign and the spending cuts that were promised. Now all of a sudden there is another big round of cuts but they don't want to say exactly who is next to be squeezed? My guess is that its exactly the type of people that are potential swing tory voters.

The leak from Danny Alexander of a document suggesting that a good chunk of the £12bn is coming from child tax credits. Is it really the case that there are millions of Conservative voters out there that can afford to take an income fall of £1k/yr? Families earning like £20-30k a year? The tories aren't interested in reversing the trend of increasing wealth inequality which is fine if you live in a leafy little village in the middle of nowhere but there comes a point where wealth inequality leads to deprovation, right?

How many visits to food banks do there have to be before people stop voting for more inequality? One million seems fine. 2 million? 5 million?

The long term plan seems to be to shrink the size of the state and make everything private which is great if you can afford private healthcare and childcare and everything else that the state currently chips in for, or if you run a business in those sectors but for who else?

The long term upshot of austerity for the man in the street is lower taxes, but for who? Inheritance tax only affects estates over £350k, the cuts in income taxes will be from the top rate while the most regressive tax of all (VAT) gets increased as this government has done already?

Anyway, my question to conservative voters is....why? What is it about the above trajectory for our country over the next 5, 10, 20 years that is so appealing to you? Cus I'm really not seeing it.

[MANTIS01]

The problem with leftie thinking is it's ideological, it works beautifully in theory. Back in the real world people are pretty selfish so things get more complex. An eg of this ideology is building an argument around the 'use of food banks' because half the people using them don't do so out of necessity. Free food means there's money for fags and cider. Build an argument around how many people starve to death in the UK and it will grab my attention, not interested in hearing how many people play the system.

The next problem is how we pay for all the great public spending? Labour spewed borrowed cash on these aspirations and now refuse to admit they over spent. In an ideal world you have unlimited money you see so Labour simply cannot be trusted with the economy. Hmmm so where do we get the cash? Tax the rich? Problem is the rich are mobile and they will simply do one somewhere else. Now how do you pay for all great public spending?

Anyway my question to labour voters is why do you want Britain to be Russia or China's bitch just so food bank users can buy a bottle of white lightning?

Oh & see Miliband stumble off the stage, fckin rofl, euro leaders would give him an absolute pasting around the negotiating table

[kukushkin88]

Clegg has a battle on his hands in Sheffield Hallam.

I went to pick my daughter up from school yesterday and Labour campaigners were handing out leaflets at the school gates.

They are trying very, very hard here to unseat him.

I'm not sure campaigning literally on the gate of a school is legal is it? I'd have thought the electoral commission would have views on that type of behaviour?

big picture, the labour party knows that the LD is significantly less likely to do another deal with the conservatives if clegg is not leader

of course they want to win the seat anyway locally, but the extra manpower/resources into the seat is because a parliament without clegg pushes LD more into their wheelhouse in a new parliament grouping, and probably as a weaker party so able to make less demands too

i think clegg holds as tories will tactically vote for him in the constituency, but undoubtedly its tight (Ashcroft had clegg behind less than a week ago)

It is incredible how often Ashcroft´s polls show results that are tactically convenient.

[kukushkin88]

The problem with leftie thinking is it's ideological, it works beautifully in theory. Back in the real world people are pretty selfish so things get more complex. An eg of this ideology is building an argument around the 'use of food banks' because half the people using them don't do so out of necessity. Free food means there's money for fags and cider. Build an argument around how many people starve to death in the UK and it will grab my attention, not interested in hearing how many people play the system.

The next problem is how we pay for all the great public spending? Labour spewed borrowed cash on these aspirations and now refuse to admit they over spent. In an ideal world you have unlimited money you see so Labour simply cannot be trusted with the economy. Hmmm so where do we get the cash? Tax the rich? Problem is the rich are mobile and they will simply do one somewhere else. Now how do you pay for all great public spending?

Anyway my question to labour voters is why do you want Britain to be Russia or China's bitch just so food bank users can buy a bottle of white lightning?

Oh & see Miliband stumble off the stage, fckin rofl, euro leaders would give him an absolute pasting around the negotiating table

This says it all. Austerity makes people c****, c**** vote tory, vicious cycle. (please excuse my language, hopefully you get the point)

[kukushkin88]

the guardian comes out for labour http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/01/guardian-view-britain-needs-new-direction-needs-labour

Interesting editorial, just a few things that this campaign has made me think about

I do wonder whether the lower and middle income Conservative voters really understand how £12bn of welfare cuts will affect them? The right leaning media has done a fantastic job of getting people to think that welfare cuts come out of the pockets of the lazy and the scroungers and into the pockets of 'hard working people'. That approach really appeals to the core Tory vote so that was the gist of the last election campaign and the spending cuts that were promised. Now all of a sudden there is another big round of cuts but they don't want to say exactly who is next to be squeezed? My guess is that its exactly the type of people that are potential swing tory voters.

The leak from Danny Alexander of a document suggesting that a good chunk of the £12bn is coming from child tax credits. Is it really the case that there are millions of Conservative voters out there that can afford to take an income fall of £1k/yr? Families earning like £20-30k a year? The tories aren't interested in reversing the trend of increasing wealth inequality which is fine if you live in a leafy little village in the middle of nowhere but there comes a point where wealth inequality leads to deprovation, right?

How many visits to food banks do there have to be before people stop voting for more inequality? One million seems fine. 2 million? 5 million?

The long term plan seems to be to shrink the size of the state and make everything private which is great if you can afford private healthcare and childcare and everything else that the state currently chips in for, or if you run a business in those sectors but for who else?

The long term upshot of austerity for the man in the street is lower taxes, but for who? Inheritance tax only affects estates over £350k, the cuts in income taxes will be from the top rate while the most regressive tax of all (VAT) gets increased as this government has done already?

Anyway, my question to conservative voters is....why? What is it about the above trajectory for our country over the next 5, 10, 20 years that is so appealing to you? Cus I'm really not seeing it.

Great post. Puts my attempts to balance the right wing propaganda to shame, good job :-)

[Woodsey]

Right wing is propaganda and left wing is the only correct way.....alright son