UK General Election 2015

[PaintingByNumbers]

For having no chance quite incredibly they are odds on still to get the most seats! Quite incredible how low this country is sinking.  Where are the old fashioned style leaders with balls. I would rather have hezza in charge of the Tories than Cameron. Milliband is just a joke. It's not hard to see why ukip are gaining followers but it's mainly because the big two parties are showing no leadership.

arbboy (or anyone else), can you explain to me why I can only find odds from PaddyPower for 'Prime Minister after the General Election'?
I can see loads of markets being offered, but only the one firm on, surely by far, the most important question to be decided by the Election.

No axe to grind, just interested in the answer.

Edit: Ladbrokes have a 'Prime Minister at 2015 Queens Speech too'.

[arbboy]

I'm sure it was included.
An almost incredibly underwhelming speech.

Either way labour still have no chance next year with millidonkey in charge, I hope he stays in charge

'No chance' of what though?

For having no chance quite incredibly they are odds on still to get the most seats! Quite incredible how low this country is sinking.  Where are the old fashioned style leaders with balls. I would rather have hezza in charge of the Tories than Cameron. Milliband is just a joke. It's not hard to see why ukip are gaining followers but it's mainly because the big two parties are showing no leadership.

I might have to remortgage in that case 

ma of your means woodsey you could just flick in 50 large and lay labour to win 70 grand without even missing it. Just turn your isa's into betting tokens for a year.  Try getting 75% on ur isa's before next May!  Remortgage???  Who are you kidding!  You got a real job!

[arbboy]

For having no chance quite incredibly they are odds on still to get the most seats! Quite incredible how low this country is sinking.  Where are the old fashioned style leaders with balls. I would rather have hezza in charge of the Tories than Cameron. Milliband is just a joke. It's not hard to see why ukip are gaining followers but it's mainly because the big two parties are showing no leadership.

arbboy (or anyone else), can you explain to me why I can only find odds from PaddyPower for 'Prime Minister after the General Election'?
I can see loads of markets being offered, but only the one firm on, surely by far, the most important question to be decided by the Election.

No axe to grind, just interested in the answer.

I assume every other firm thinks the current leaders will still be in charge for the next election so a bet on the election is the same as a bet you are asking for.  That would be the most logical explanation imo.

[RickBFA]

Milliband on TV now.

He's a complete clown.

He's squirming big time about the deficit.

The Labour Party are boxed into a corner on Scottish MP's too.

It's amazing they have a small lead in the polls given their track record and the last few weeks events.

[TightEnd]

It's amazing they have a small lead in the polls given their track record and the last few weeks events.

He doesn't need to do much to win the election for two reasons

A normal voting split would be Con 30-40, Lab 30-40, Lib 15-20, Others 5

1. the LD % is going to halve, as the core vote goes Labour, going to take a generation for them to forgive going into coalition

2. The Right vote has fragmented, with UKIP polling 12-15%. Some of the UKIP vote has come from old labour, but it is a disporportionate effect on the Conservative vote

So a core Labour vote of 30%, plus 5-7% from Lib Dems will be enough to win the election given the constituency boundary changes where Conservatives now need an 8% lead in the vote to gain a majority of seats

So, the postulation goes, yesterday's speech doesn't need to be "Big Tent" to appeal to the right it just needs to shore up his core, reassure the social democrats/liverals and bob is his uncle, he's in

[DungBeetle]

Seems he "forgot" Deficit reduction and immigration in the speech, how unfortunate

Pretty bizarre when they are basically the top political issues, no wonder he's got no chance next year  

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3439/EconomistIpsos-MORI-August-2014-Issues-Index.aspx

There is no mention of 'Deficit reduction' in that link, that is merely your own interpretation.

It would seem perfectly reasonable to include it under economy. Either way labour still have no chance next year with millidonkey in charge, I hope he stays in charge

Unfortunately to the average voter when talking about economy, the nation's debt and deficit run a long way behind jobs, growth and inflation.  I think Miliband has every chance next year. unless he skewers himself on english votes on english issues.  I think he's absolutely awful.  But he's got a lead and boundaries in his favour starting the final lap.

[DungBeetle]

For having no chance quite incredibly they are odds on still to get the most seats! Quite incredible how low this country is sinking.  Where are the old fashioned style leaders with balls. I would rather have hezza in charge of the Tories than Cameron. Milliband is just a joke. It's not hard to see why ukip are gaining followers but it's mainly because the big two parties are showing no leadership.

arbboy (or anyone else), can you explain to me why I can only find odds from PaddyPower for 'Prime Minister after the General Election'?
I can see loads of markets being offered, but only the one firm on, surely by far, the most important question to be decided by the Election.

No axe to grind, just interested in the answer.

I assume every other firm thinks the current leaders will still be in charge for the next election so a bet on the election is the same as a bet you are asking for.  That would be the most logical explanation imo.

Isn't it because it covers hung parliament scenarios?

[Woodsey]

Seems he "forgot" Deficit reduction and immigration in the speech, how unfortunate

Pretty bizarre when they are basically the top political issues, no wonder he's got no chance next year  

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3439/EconomistIpsos-MORI-August-2014-Issues-Index.aspx

There is no mention of 'Deficit reduction' in that link, that is merely your own interpretation.

It would seem perfectly reasonable to include it under economy. Either way labour still have no chance next year with millidonkey in charge, I hope he stays in charge

Unfortunately to the average voter when talking about economy, the nation's debt and deficit run a long way behind jobs, growth and inflation.  I think Miliband has every chance next year. unless he skewers himself on english votes on english issues.  I think he's absolutely awful.  But he's got a lead and boundaries in his favour starting the final lap.

Would be an embarrassment to have that guy as our PM.

[DungBeetle]

I'm not a big fan of Cameron. but he is mildly statesmanlike imo.   However, the prospect of Miliband saying "I say unto you Putin" or whatever weird dialogue he comes up with makes me cringe.

[horseplayer]

[arbboy]

cue Steve Bruce pic of him finding them please Horsey on HH.

[TightEnd]

lol!

"Sketch: Ed Miliband, voice of the everyday working people

By Michael Deacon, Parliamentary Sketchwriter

6:41PM BST 21 Sep 2014

Good to be with you!

Now, look. If what you’re asking me is, Why am I writing this article in the style of Ed Miliband being interviewed on The Andrew Marr Show ahead of the Labour Party conference, then I’ve got to say to you: well, look. There isn’t a simple answer to that issue. But I will say this. You know, we’ve got to look at all these things. That’s why I say to you what I do. And I think that’s the right thing to do for the everyday working people of Britain, up and down this country.

Let’s be very clear about this. You’ve asked me a question. And I get that. Absolutely. But let me just make this point. If what you’re asking me is, Why do I have this habit of answering questions by asking myself a completely different question, then I’ve got to tell you: I think that’s the right thing to do.
 
 

I mean, goodness. Only last week, I was in some part of the country or other, talking to an everyday working person, and she said to me this. She said, “Ed, why don’t you go on The Andrew Marr Show and blather for 20 minutes in that vacuous way of yours, like a socially inept Tony Blair, sidestepping any awkward questions by burbling about ‘looking at all the issues’ and ‘doing change in the right way’ and ‘not learning the wrong lessons’?”

And I listened to that everyday working person, because I think that’s the right thing to do, and to her I said this. I said, “I’ve listened to what you’ve got to say, and I think you’ve made some incredibly important points. But let me just say this. I think we’ve got to look at all the issues, and do change in the right way, because otherwise, we’ll be learning the wrong lessons.”

Now, look. You’ve just asked me whether I agree that only English MPs should be able to vote on English laws, a change that would benefit the English people but undermine any future Labour government. Well, look. Let me answer like this. If what you’re asking me is, What’s the big headline-grabbing policy I’m announcing at conference this week, then it’s an increase in the minimum wage to £8 an hour. Not next year, or the year after, or the year after that, or the year after that, or the year after that. But the year after that.

And I think that’s the sort of radical, decisive change that the everyday working people of this country are crying out for.

Because look. That’s what my Labour government will be about. Ensuring X. Delivering Y. Reaching out to Z. Reforming this, that and possibly the other, depending on the economic situation we inherit. And that’s what we’re going to do. Because actually, you know, I’m listening. I’m listening to everything except the questions I’m being asked.

Good to be with you!"

[DungBeetle]

Haha - that's good.

He has a very weird way of speaking.  Old fashioned - almost biblical.  "I say to you" etc

I'm sure it's just done to give him thinking time which I don't blame him for, but he definitely overcooks it!

[AndrewT]

With Ed Miliband I'm never sure if this is the result of him being at the mercy of image consultants, focus groups and being moulded by a team of people or whether he's just like that.

I think it would improve the public's perception of politicians if every leader had to do an interview whilst drunk - we'd get to see what they were really like.

[DungBeetle]

Remember that time the image consultants made Gordon Brown wear a helmet and point from the top of a tank smiling?

I've never been able to find that picture anywhere on the web, but it was brilliant.