UK General Election 2015

[redsimon]

just for fun, give me your own forecast

10pm deadline

closest (+/- aggregated from actual in each column) wins

Tory—279
Lab—270
SNP—48
LD—32
DUP—8
SDLP—3
Ukp—3
Oth—7

total is 650

[ripple11]

Given the word on the street from special correspondent Woodsey .........

Tory  272
Lab    279
SNP    51
LD      28
DUP    9
SDLP   3
UKIP   2
OTH   6

so Ed moves in with his stone, and Salmond has a tent next to it.

[redsimon]

Genuine question - has anyone actually changed how they have/plan to vote as a direct result of something someone has said in this thread?

No need to say who you voted for or what the post was, just fascinated what influences people's voting decisions.

Did change from who I was voting for pre election to who I did vote for, not from anything in this thread though, more being in a "safe" seat for one party and as a protest vote against the lack of honesty of all the main three parties. You only have to watch the "Daily Politics"  on TV to see none of them ever answers the questions put by Andrew Neil for example.

[Longy]

Just heading out for work and a group of labour people were knocking on doors left and right of me obviously making sure people actually go and vote. Skipped me again, wonder if they know I'm a no hoper for them? never spoken to any of them so how could they know? 

They will only be knocking on the doors of known Labour supporters - sounds like you're surrounded!

Just got back home, they are like flies around here, in teams of 2 or 3's every few streets with clipboards chasing people up. Not a Tory to be seen, this is a marginal seat so I hope this isn't the difference, if it is the local Tory candidate only has herself to blame.

Not surprised by this, in terms of people on the ground Labour has way more. Whereas the conservatives have more money to spend on the machine that drives things, especially if we end up in another election soon.

[Mark_Porter]

Genuine question - has anyone actually changed how they have/plan to vote as a direct result of something someone has said in this thread?

No need to say who you voted for or what the post was, just fascinated what influences people's voting decisions.

Not as a direct result but certainly played a part.

Neil Channing's retweeting also a major factor.

As someone who has a very passing interest in politics, I have felt far more bombarded with 'reasons to vote labour' type media as opposed to 'reasons to vote tory'.

[The Camel]

Genuine question - has anyone actually changed how they have/plan to vote as a direct result of something someone has said in this thread?

No need to say who you voted for or what the post was, just fascinated what influences people's voting decisions.

I was wavering towards not bothering voting.

Woodsey and Arbboy encouraged me to make the effort and go out and do it.

[nirvana]

Genuine question - has anyone actually changed how they have/plan to vote as a direct result of something someone has said in this thread?

No need to say who you voted for or what the post was, just fascinated what influences people's voting decisions.

I  can honestly say some of the more rational voices here have helped tip me to a decision which is different to the way I would have stated my intentions 2 months ago. It was always going to be a marginal decision at best, having voted for 3 different parties in the past. Also, some good sketches about the party leaders on Newsnight last night helped me make the final decision.

Interestingly, I will vote the way I vote in spite of the more rabid and raucous supporters rather than because of them - hate to be aligned with a scare mongering rabble in terms of how I vote but I guess that's unavoidable which ever way you go.

[scotty77]

Genuine question - has anyone actually changed how they have/plan to vote as a direct result of something someone has said in this thread?

No need to say who you voted for or what the post was, just fascinated what influences people's voting decisions.

I changed the party I voted for.  Not just cos of this thread but it was certainly a factor.

I live in one of the safest Conservative seats there is so it won't make a difference.

[AndrewT]

My darts at the board.

Tory—272
Lab—272
SNP—53
LD—28
DUP—8
SDLP—3
Ukp—2
Oth—12

total is 650

[TightEnd]

think it has been an excellent thread for the most part. something we can be proud of as a group of posters.

compare it to the rabid masses in the comments section of an online newspaper and realise its been a good debate on here.   


one thing i spotted today, and had to do a double check

in 2010 the BNP got a higher national share of the vote than the SNP

in 2015 the BNP are fielding 8 candidates nationwide


things have moved on, thankfully, in at least one resepct......

[The Camel]

think it has been an excellent thread for the most part. something we can be proud of as a group of posters.

compare it to the rabid masses in the comments section of an online newspaper and realise its been a good debate on here.   


one thing i spotted today, and had to do a double check

in 2010 the BNP got a higher national share of the vote than the SNP

in 2015 the BNP are fielding 8 candidates nationwide


things have moved on, thankfully, in at least one resepct......

BNP voters moved to UKIP?

Or not voting at all?

[TightEnd]

think it has been an excellent thread for the most part. something we can be proud of as a group of posters.

compare it to the rabid masses in the comments section of an online newspaper and realise its been a good debate on here.   


one thing i spotted today, and had to do a double check

in 2010 the BNP got a higher national share of the vote than the SNP

in 2015 the BNP are fielding 8 candidates nationwide


things have moved on, thankfully, in at least one resepct......

BNP voters moved to UKIP?

Or not voting at all?

well i don't know, and not even thinking about that inference

i was just making the point that an extreme (and for most of us an unwelcome) party has more or less disappeared from our ballot papers

[The Camel]

think it has been an excellent thread for the most part. something we can be proud of as a group of posters.

compare it to the rabid masses in the comments section of an online newspaper and realise its been a good debate on here.   


one thing i spotted today, and had to do a double check

in 2010 the BNP got a higher national share of the vote than the SNP

in 2015 the BNP are fielding 8 candidates nationwide


things have moved on, thankfully, in at least one resepct......

BNP voters moved to UKIP?

Or not voting at all?

well i don't know, and not even thinking about that inference

i was just making the point that an extreme (and for most of us an unwelcome) party has more or less disappeared from our ballot papers

I wasn't stirring, I was genuinely interested.

Over 1/2 million people voted BNP last time, those votes have to have gone somewhere.

Are they disenfranchised and not bothering to vote, or will they be voting UKIP?

Or even Labour? As I would imagine most of them are working or the under classes.

[TightEnd]

good questions

i'd guess 1 ukip 2 labour 3 not voting


by the by, all indications are that turnout is 70%+

there has also been a move up in expectations for the LDs, spreads were 24 seats up to now 28 seats in 3 days

tactical voting both ways against the major parties

[kukushkin88]

think it has been an excellent thread for the most part. something we can be proud of as a group of posters.

compare it to the rabid masses in the comments section of an online newspaper and realise its been a good debate on here.   


one thing i spotted today, and had to do a double check

in 2010 the BNP got a higher national share of the vote than the SNP

in 2015 the BNP are fielding 8 candidates nationwide


things have moved on, thankfully, in at least one resepct......

BNP voters moved to UKIP?

Or not voting at all?

well i don't know, and not even thinking about that inference

i was just making the point that an extreme (and for most of us an unwelcome) party has more or less disappeared from our ballot papers

I wasn't stirring, I was genuinely interested.

Over 1/2 million people voted BNP last time, those votes have to have gone somewhere.

Are they disenfranchised and not bothering to vote, or will they be voting UKIP?

Or even Labour? As I would imagine most of them are working or the under classes.

Under Classes!? :-) I would have thought they are mostly UKIP voters now. I thought it reflected well on society that mainstream media gave them a platform and the people decided to reject them. That´s how it should work. Nick Griffin on QT was priceless!