UK General Election 2015

[Woodsey]

Chuka Umunna is hugely impressive. They need an outstanding candidate as I get the feeling whoever they pick will be up against Boris

I think the reason I'm much sadder and angrier over this election result than I was 5 years ago is that I can almost see the future panning out before me.

Cameron does all the dirty work over then next 3 years, cuts welfare spending, begins to break up the NHS, slashes education, demonises the poor, gives further tax breaks to the rich, yadda yadda yadda.

Then in 2019 he leaves and in sweeps Boris, and he embarks on an immediate giveaway. Bribing the electorate to such an extent that he's sure to win.

5 years doesn't sound like a very long time. But 10 years definitely does.

[arbboy]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/embarrassment-for-rising-star-of-labour-and-betting-shop-critic-chuka-umunna-after-he-accepts-20000-gift-from-gambling-executive-8748755.html

This is interesting.  The big betting firms would love him as the labour leader given the share price boost they got this week once labour were beaten.

[teddybloat]

Scotty, blair redefined mainstream politics.

The last politician to deserve an ism after his name and the first since thatcher.

Cameron, clegg, and the next leader of new labour are all blairites.

Hoping for another game changer is hoping too much.

97 was special, there was summat in the air around the end of the millenium. I remember the election night clearly, I ws 17 and only known tory governance and growing up in merseyside I was aware of it. To my young eyes it seemed like politics could change the world. The was a definite sense that the wheel was in spin, to borrow a phrase.

I doubt that political atmosphere will come about anytime soon. Would love to see it though.

[The Camel]

Scotty, blair redefined mainstream politics.

The last politician to deserve an ism after his name and the first since thatcher.

Cameron, clegg, and the next leader of new labour are all blairites.

Hoping for another game changer is hoping too much.

97 was special, there was summat in the air around the end of the millenium. I remember the election night clearly, I ws 17 and only known tory governance and growing up in merseyside I was aware of it. To my young eyes it seemed like politics could change the world. The was a definite sense that the wheel was in spin, to borrow a phrase.

I doubt that political atmosphere will come about anytime soon. Would love to see it though.

May 2nd 1997.

Definitely one the top 5 days of my life.

What an effing let down Blair proved to be, but still remember that day very fondly.

[arbboy]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3075105/How-got-right-shock-forecast-Professor-exit-poll-accurately-predicted-surprise-result-reveals-not-following-crowd-played-key-role-success.html

This is interesting read.

[AndrewT]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3075105/How-got-right-shock-forecast-Professor-exit-poll-accurately-predicted-surprise-result-reveals-not-following-crowd-played-key-role-success.html

This is interesting read.

That fella is king of the aftertimers.

Considering that the main problem with the opinion polls is correctly weighting the sample of people you ask so they accurately represent the people who will actually vote, he's crowing about how his exit poll was right when an exit poll sample is people who have just voted.

Though that page does have the best comment I've seen on a DM article.

'He's doing a similar poll for the next Irish general election. There will, of course, be a margin of Eire.'

[arbboy]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3075105/How-got-right-shock-forecast-Professor-exit-poll-accurately-predicted-surprise-result-reveals-not-following-crowd-played-key-role-success.html

This is interesting read.

That fella is king of the aftertimers.

Considering that the main problem with the opinion polls is correctly weighting the sample of people you ask so they accurately represent the people who will actually vote, he's crowing about how his exit poll was right when an exit poll sample is people who have just voted.

Though that page does have the best comment I've seen on a DM article.

'He's doing a similar poll for the next Irish general election. There will, of course, be a margin of Eire.'

Whilst i agree with you does everyone who leaves polling answer honestly about who they voted for? Also if it is that easy to do what he does why don't all the other opinion polls operate exit polls like he does?  Seems like shelling peas for him as he is the only one doing it and everyone thinks he is a hero. 

[simonnatur]

The concept of "Shy Tories" seems at odds with the fact that the exit polls proved to be so accurate. If they really existed wouldn't you expect them to be at their most reticent in a face to face interview?

[scotty77]

Isn't an exit poll a slip of paper in a box so no reason to be shy?

[AndrewT]

Polling companies generally don't do polls off their own back - they'll be commissioned by a newspaper/TV station/party who pay for it.

There used to be separate exit polls on election day for the Tv companies but in recent years, BBC/ITN/Sky have joined together and done one big one between them (one poll with a sample of 12,000 is more likely to be right than 3 with 4,000 each).

[arbboy]

Polling companies generally don't do polls off their own back - they'll be commissioned by a newspaper/TV station/party who pay for it.

There used to be separate exit polls on election day for the Tv companies but in recent years, BBC/ITN/Sky have joined together and done one big one between them (one poll with a sample of 12,000 is more likely to be right than 3 with 4,000 each).

Sure i totally agree with you and the mad professor is having it off financially i assume after his effort this year which must have made everyone's eyebrows stand up at 955pm when bbc1 turned onto the election review.  I know it did mine.  The way the betfair markets snap reacted made you realise these exit polls are 100% accurate to snap move the betfair market that much that quickly when no results had actually been declared.

ps looking forward to paddy pantsdown eating his hat.  When is this going to be televised?

[The Camel]

Polling companies generally don't do polls off their own back - they'll be commissioned by a newspaper/TV station/party who pay for it.

There used to be separate exit polls on election day for the Tv companies but in recent years, BBC/ITN/Sky have joined together and done one big one between them (one poll with a sample of 12,000 is more likely to be right than 3 with 4,000 each).

Sure i totally agree with you and the mad professor is having it off financially i assume after his effort this year which must have made everyone's eyebrows stand up at 955pm when bbc1 turned onto the election review.  I know it did mine.  The way the betfair markets snap reacted made you realise these exit polls are 100% accurate to snap move the betfair market that much that quickly when no results had actually been declared.

ps looking forward to paddy pantsdown eating his hat.  When is this going to be televised?

My memory may be playing tricks on me, but I seem to recall one exit poll being way wrong.

Maybe the Major win in 1992.

[scotty77]

Thought this was good

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

These kind of things really do look so poor on them

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rochester-byelection-labour-mp-emily-thornberry-apologises-for-white-transit-van-and-england-flags-tweet-9874088.html

One would assume that social media should help the left and work against the centre/right.  I actually think the reverse is the case.  The left are too busy on blogs, twitter, photoshop etc about the 'evil' right wing that all the middle of the ground floating voters just see bile and hate and don't want to be any part of it at all.

[The Camel]

Thought this was good

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

These kind of things really do look so poor on them

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rochester-byelection-labour-mp-emily-thornberry-apologises-for-white-transit-van-and-england-flags-tweet-9874088.html

One would assume that social media should help the left and work against the centre/right.  I actually think the reverse is the case.  The left are too busy on blogs, twitter, photoshop etc about the 'evil' right wing that all the middle of the ground floating voters just see bile and hate and don't want to be any part of it at all.

Emily Thornberry did nothing wrong.

She tweeted a photograph and people used their own prejudices to draw a conclusion as to what they thought she meant by it.

How can she be blamed for other people's predjudice?

[MintTrav]

I'm pretty sure that my constituency saw the worst thrashing of any outgoing MP.

Mike Hancock was MP for Portsmouth South for 21 years and on the local Council for longer. Both Ashdown and Kennedy had him on their front bench and he was a member of the Defence Committee for 12 years and Chairman of the all-party Russia group.

He was well-regarded in Portsmouth for a long time but had an extraordinary time in Westminster and Europe, developing a reputation for being extremely pro-Russia. Whenever something related to Russia was in the news, he would speak in favour of the Russian position. He also had connections with various young Russian women who worked as his assistants. One of them hit the national headlines a couple of years ago when she was arrested for spying, though she eventually got off. It also came out that they had been having a affair for four years, while she was in her early to mid twenties and he was in his early to mid sixties.

He has been properly in disgrace for the last couple of years, having admitted to an "inappropriate relationship" with a vulnerable constituent, leading to an out-of-court settlement. He was kicked out of the Lib Dems but has remained as an Independent MP (and Councillor).

He is now a pariah in Portsmouth but stood for election again, this time as an Independent, despite there being a new Lib Dem candidate and having no possibility of winning. It is universally believed that this was because of the severance package. MPs who lose their seat receive six months pay after one term, ie £33k, which increases for longer service, the first £30k of which is tax-free. This is because they are immediately out of a job, and can't really be seen to be applying for things before the election. If they stand down, however, they don't get it. So, he was willing to accept the humiliation in order to get the dosh. In 2010, he received 18,921 votes (45.9%), and a massive majority. This time he got 716 votes (1.7%).

It has been a sad and embarrassing end to what was once a high-flying career.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Hancock_(British_politician)
[need to type the last bracket if you click that link, as it seems to get dropped]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/dec/05/mike-hancock-russian-assistants-meetings