UK General Election 2015

[cambridgealex]

Thought this was good

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

These kind of things really do look so poor on them

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rochester-byelection-labour-mp-emily-thornberry-apologises-for-white-transit-van-and-england-flags-tweet-9874088.html

One would assume that social media should help the left and work against the centre/right.  I actually think the reverse is the case.  The left are too busy on blogs, twitter, photoshop etc about the 'evil' right wing that all the middle of the ground floating voters just see bile and hate and don't want to be any part of it at all.

Emily Thornberry did nothing wrong.

She tweeted a photograph and people used their own prejudices to draw a conclusion as to what they thought she meant by it.

How can she be blamed for other people's predjudice?

What do you think she meant by it?

That it was "an amazing site, a house covered in flags"? Please.

[arbboy]

Course it was a rub down to the lower classes in england she was supposed to represent.  The PR team quickly acted to try and pretend it was something else but we all know what she really meant whatever the PR guru's try to sell us after the event.  It was hardly staged.  This type of champagne socialism quietly killed 'red ed' and his followers.

[DungBeetle]

Thought this was good

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

These kind of things really do look so poor on them

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rochester-byelection-labour-mp-emily-thornberry-apologises-for-white-transit-van-and-england-flags-tweet-9874088.html

One would assume that social media should help the left and work against the centre/right.  I actually think the reverse is the case.  The left are too busy on blogs, twitter, photoshop etc about the 'evil' right wing that all the middle of the ground floating voters just see bile and hate and don't want to be any part of it at all.

Emily Thornberry did nothing wrong.

She tweeted a photograph and people used their own prejudices to draw a conclusion as to what they thought she meant by it.

How can she be blamed for other people's predjudice?

Come on Camel.  You could use that argument about people posting all sorts of photos without comment.  If UKIP starting posting pictures to back up an anti immigration stance would you say that it is other people's interpretation of what they think they were implying that makes it wrong?  There comes a point where it is so obvious what someone means by a picture that the reader's prejudice doesn't come into it.

[RickBFA]

As Tighty said, the Tories have an opportunity to be in power for 10 years plus.

Problem for Cameron though is the right wing of his party.

If he is going to succeed (as well as getting the economy right) he needs to keep discipline within his party. He should set his stall out with them now - learn from the past - the press will look for any opportunity to shout about splits in the Tory Party on Europe. Some of his MP's will be unable to keep their mouths shut.

The other issue is image. They need to proactively try to move away from the image of nasty, heartless public school boys. Every time they roll out the likes of Gove, I cringe (and I am by nature a Tory voter).

If they get the economy right, keep discipline on Europe and work on their public image, I think 10 years plus is there for the taking.

[TightEnd]

As Tighty said, the Tories have an opportunity to be in power for 10 years plus.

Problem for Cameron though is the right wing of his party.

If he is going to succeed (as well as getting the economy right) he needs to keep discipline within his party. He should set his stall out with them now - learn from the past - the press will look for any opportunity to shout about splits in the Tory Party on Europe. Some of his MP's will be unable to keep their mouths shut.

The other issue is image. They need to proactively try to move away from the image of nasty, heartless public school boys. Every time they roll out the likes of Gove, I cringe (and I am by nature a Tory voter).

If they get the economy right, keep discipline on Europe and work on their public image, I think 10 years plus is there for the taking.

Cameron is in a strong position within the party. any tory MP that rocks the boat and tries to hold him hostage will be ridiculed.

i expect him to try to do a lot early while labour and libdems are in disarray, and while the loony wing is supine

[MintTrav]

As Tighty said, the Tories have an opportunity to be in power for 10 years plus.

Problem for Cameron though is the right wing of his party.

If he is going to succeed (as well as getting the economy right) he needs to keep discipline within his party. He should set his stall out with them now - learn from the past - the press will look for any opportunity to shout about splits in the Tory Party on Europe. Some of his MP's will be unable to keep their mouths shut.

The other issue is image. They need to proactively try to move away from the image of nasty, heartless public school boys. Every time they roll out the likes of Gove, I cringe (and I am by nature a Tory voter).

If they get the economy right, keep discipline on Europe and work on their public image, I think 10 years plus is there for the taking.

Cameron is in a strong position within the party. any tory MP that rocks the boat and tries to hold him hostage will be ridiculed.

i expect him to try to do a lot early while labour and libdems are in disarray, and while the loony wing is supine

That's true, but they won't stay supine. They detest Cameron, who is a leftie so far as they are concerned. They are a dangerous group, who could become more than a distraction. Remember their alternative Queen's Speech - capital punishment, national service, deport asylum seekers, leave the EU, reduce foreign aid, ban the niqab and burka, Margaret Thatcher Day (lol), etc, etc.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2013/06/the-alternative-queens-speech-the-full-list-of-40-rebel-bills.html

[TightEnd]

sent to the polling company Srvation yesterday

"“I saw Damian Lyons Lowe interviewed yesterday on Sky News and was prompted to write, as it was the first time anybody seems to have echoed what much of the general public believe about the polls having been wrong.”

The polls weren’t wrong. They accurately reflected the fact that a roughly equal proportion of people intended to vote Labour as intended to vote Conservative. People were not lying to pollsters but, in the last 2 to 3 days voter intention changed. People were turned by the polls themselves in fact which left a SNP-Labour coalition as the inevitable outcome of the election.

People had a sense that the polls were probably about right and those poll results were used by much of the media in the final week to allow the public to engage in coalition speculation and to contemplate the various permutations possible.

The Guardian newspaper for example used the polls and predicted number of seats to offer a “Coalition Builder” online. This allowed readers to try differing party combinations in order to reach the magic 326 required. Dragging and dropping any combination into the box failed to form a majority government unless SNP and Labour were placed together. No other combination worked and cheekily trying to get the Greens, DUP and SNP to team up with the Tories resulted in sad faces all round and a “no match” message. People, knowing as they did that the polls seemed about right, changed their voting intention to actively avoid this outcome.

It seems Lib Dem supporters voted Conservative in my area for example even where a well liked and much respected Lib Dem MP stood to lose his seat and even when they had not particularly come around to the Conservative plans. They were fearful of the power the SNP would exert over Miliband. His reassurances meant nothing because the polls proved he would need to make concessions to keep the SNP on board with their 50+ seats. Sturgeon reiterated this. Others who believed Labour had managed to sell their message of economic responsibility feared all of that would be lost under the SNP influence. And many felt a coalition of the losers was unjust even if constitutionally legitimate. Some wanted a repeat of a Lib Dem – Conservative coalition but could not see how to vote to bring that about without risking a Labour-SNP one instead (which may be why the LibDems aren’t as doomed as they fear)

So the final polls were wrong because the initial polls were right. They gave people the information they needed to see the way the outcome was likely to go and, not liking that outcome, they chose to vote to change it in the last few days. Which is either very democratic indeed or not very democratic at all – I’m not sure.

I know you will be overwhelmed with messages and feedback but, in the midst of all the reviews and post mortems about what went wrong, I hoped that some feedback from someone completely outside the polling world might be of interest.

Kind Regards

Emma Greaves

(Administrator and stay-at-home Mum)"

[TightEnd]

the various problems Labour now face to patch the Blairite coalition back together. Via the Guardian

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

"I know of someone in Twickenham who had filled in a postal vote for Vince Cable, but decided to deliver it to the polling station on the day. Once there, he changed his mind, fearing a Labour government dependent on the SNP would mean economic instability, asked for a new ballot paper and voted Tory. He wasn’t so much a shy Tory as a Liberal Democrat voter who hadn’t realised he was a Tory until he got to the polling station."

"It will be terribly hard, all the wise people agreed, to keep the rebellious right wing of the Conservative Party in line.  Not only is this wrong – a small majority imposes its own discipline – but we are in danger of missing the big story of this election: that it was a stunning vindication of David Cameron’s judgement, his political skill and his One Nation Toryism."

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/is-no-one-going-to-give-david-cameron-any-credit-he-has-finally-detoxified-the-tory-party-10238885.html

[TightEnd]

A new survey for the Royal Statistical Society and King's College London shows public opinion is repeatedly off the mark on issues including crime, benefit fraud and immigration.

The research, carried out by Ipsos Mori from a phone survey of 1,015 people aged 16 to 75, lists ten misconceptions held by the British public. Among the biggest misconceptions are:...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-public-wrong-about-nearly-everything-survey-shows-8697821.html

"Hetan Shah, executive director of the Royal Statistical Society, said: "Our data poses real challenges for policymakers. How can you develop good policy when public perceptions can be so out of kilter with the evidence?"

[doubleup]

The far right believe that the market and strong property rights are all that matter.  The far left obviously believe that equal distribution of wealth is all that matters.

Most people believe in the principle of rewarding hard work and innovation if this makes everyone wealthier, but when a system is excessively rewarding a small minority and the living standards of the majority are stagnating, they are going to vote for a party that claims to offers fairer distribution.

If the Tories do increase the wealth of the country and distribute that wealth to everyone, they are welcome to as many years in power as they will get, but if we have 5 years of of low growth and stagnating living standards for the majority, Labour will only require a small shift in perception to be electable again.

[The Camel]

sent to the polling company Srvation yesterday

"“I saw Damian Lyons Lowe interviewed yesterday on Sky News and was prompted to write, as it was the first time anybody seems to have echoed what much of the general public believe about the polls having been wrong.”

The polls weren’t wrong. They accurately reflected the fact that a roughly equal proportion of people intended to vote Labour as intended to vote Conservative. People were not lying to pollsters but, in the last 2 to 3 days voter intention changed. People were turned by the polls themselves in fact which left a SNP-Labour coalition as the inevitable outcome of the election.

People had a sense that the polls were probably about right and those poll results were used by much of the media in the final week to allow the public to engage in coalition speculation and to contemplate the various permutations possible.

The Guardian newspaper for example used the polls and predicted number of seats to offer a “Coalition Builder” online. This allowed readers to try differing party combinations in order to reach the magic 326 required. Dragging and dropping any combination into the box failed to form a majority government unless SNP and Labour were placed together. No other combination worked and cheekily trying to get the Greens, DUP and SNP to team up with the Tories resulted in sad faces all round and a “no match” message. People, knowing as they did that the polls seemed about right, changed their voting intention to actively avoid this outcome.

It seems Lib Dem supporters voted Conservative in my area for example even where a well liked and much respected Lib Dem MP stood to lose his seat and even when they had not particularly come around to the Conservative plans. They were fearful of the power the SNP would exert over Miliband. His reassurances meant nothing because the polls proved he would need to make concessions to keep the SNP on board with their 50+ seats. Sturgeon reiterated this. Others who believed Labour had managed to sell their message of economic responsibility feared all of that would be lost under the SNP influence. And many felt a coalition of the losers was unjust even if constitutionally legitimate. Some wanted a repeat of a Lib Dem – Conservative coalition but could not see how to vote to bring that about without risking a Labour-SNP one instead (which may be why the LibDems aren’t as doomed as they fear)

So the final polls were wrong because the initial polls were right. They gave people the information they needed to see the way the outcome was likely to go and, not liking that outcome, they chose to vote to change it in the last few days. Which is either very democratic indeed or not very democratic at all – I’m not sure.

I know you will be overwhelmed with messages and feedback but, in the midst of all the reviews and post mortems about what went wrong, I hoped that some feedback from someone completely outside the polling world might be of interest.

Kind Regards

Emma Greaves

(Administrator and stay-at-home Mum)"

That's a really good letter and probably hits the nail on the head.

Thanks for sharing it.

[mulhuzz]

Michael Gove to Justice? Prolly can't get worse than Greyling, but they've managed it.

Bye bye Human Rights Act, one of the most important pieces of legislation ever written in this country.

Without Liberal Democrat breaks, this will be one of the first things to go as Cameron panders to the right of his party.

[RickBFA]

As Tighty said, the Tories have an opportunity to be in power for 10 years plus.

Problem for Cameron though is the right wing of his party.

If he is going to succeed (as well as getting the economy right) he needs to keep discipline within his party. He should set his stall out with them now - learn from the past - the press will look for any opportunity to shout about splits in the Tory Party on Europe. Some of his MP's will be unable to keep their mouths shut.

The other issue is image. They need to proactively try to move away from the image of nasty, heartless public school boys. Every time they roll out the likes of Gove, I cringe (and I am by nature a Tory voter).

If they get the economy right, keep discipline on Europe and work on their public image, I think 10 years plus is there for the taking.

Cameron is in a strong position within the party. any tory MP that rocks the boat and tries to hold him hostage will be ridiculed.

i expect him to try to do a lot early while labour and libdems are in disarray, and while the loony wing is supine

Trouble is, he has to come up with a miraculous deal with Europe (which he has to sell to them) or face a two year period of debate about Europe until the proposed referendum in 2017.

He needs to act quickly and keep a lid on the most vocal of the right wing who seem happy to commit political suicide due to their obsession with getting out of Europe.

On PR, I would keep the likes of Gove and even Osborne as far away from the press as possible. He needs to promote 3 or 4 young articulate MP's who have not come from a priveliged background to get his message across without playing to the stereotypes that the public simply can't relate to and frankly don't like.

[Woodsey]

Now the election is done I reckon we should change the title of this thread to '5 years of moaning about Tory politics'