WPT Bounty hand

[scotty77]

Villain is a Bounty. 2.5k if you knock him out.  Dunno who he is but he's late 20s/early 30s and has one of the Fantasy sites that half of the US poker population are badged up by at the minute.

He hasn't done much.  About 2 orbits ago he open jammed 20bb at 1/2k UTG with QQ and beat my AA.

I open 55 to 5.1 at 1200/2400 out of 180k.  He's in the BB and goes all in for 70k.

Thoughts?

[dreenie]

I'd fold in a normal circumstance, however if you feel you can nick chips without showdown on that particular table if u lose I'd gamble for the bounty. Always gonna be a flip at best, but pretty sure ur ahead right now.

[Doobs]

Where are we sat?  

I think the bounty must be worth about 6 BBs, so we are calling 24BBs effective and assume antes are big enough.  Never really learned bounty strategy and you have played way more than me.  Guess you are on the aggro side with a big stack.  No idea on him, but assuming he isn't mug as he is sponsored and a bounty.  

Think I call anywhere from cut off.  Definitely calling button/SB anyway.  Might just fold the rest, as it is going to be pretty marginal and 70 BBs is much nicer than 40. Haven't done any maths on this but feels right.  

[scotty77]

I'm HJ.

[Doobs]

I'm HJ.

Guess that's tricky then . Don't think you can make much of a mistake here though someone can correct me.  Will probably nit it up. 

[GreekStein]

i'd fold

[pleno1]

Gonna be close but I'd flick it in

[rfgqqabc]

Whats starting? 2.5k bounty and 3,3k buyin?

[scotty77]

5kBI.  30k starting. Bounty was for random 'celebs' taken from the prize pool.

[rfgqqabc]

Buyin 5k and starting 30k means 2.5k bounty ~ 15k in dead chips in the pot.

So need to call off 64.9k to win 1200 + (8x300)+ 15k+ 70k = 88.6k

64.9k+ 88.6k = 153.5k

64.9k/153.5k= 0.4228


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

152,395,056 games     0.000 secs  30,479,011,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    60.596%     59.64%    00.96%          90887508      1457680.00   { QQ-44, AQs-AJs, A4s, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1:    39.404%     38.45%    00.96%          58592188      1457680.00   { 5c5d }


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,134,070 games    16.129 secs  1,124,314 games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    57.952%     56.83%    01.12%          10305929       203315.50   { TT-44, AQs, A4s, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1:    42.048%     40.93%    01.12%           7421981       203321.00   { 5c5d }

About as close as i gets, if you can include 22+ then its almost certainly a call.

[Royal Flush]

Was it this guy?

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=160888

[scotty77]

Yeah that's him.

First instinct was to call but then I thought about the QQ hand and how he made a big jam with it UTG (assume it's a decent way to play 20bb w QQ actually with a bounty on you). Usually for a  near 30bb all in I would discount TT+ from his range but just felt he'd prob play those the same as QQ hand.  If he had R/C the QQ then I def call.

I folded and he showed AJ.

Felt so so close at the time tho.

[SuuPRlim]

i do feel though like he's going to be a bit tighter being AI given people are going to be gunning for him.

That being said - I'd still call as it's a great shot at some monies, plus I think tighter means less 77/88 hands

[Dubai]

I cant imagine ever folding here when a bounty is 1/2 a buyin. Would be snapping his head off

[Oxford_HRV]

I think the structure takes a significant matter in the decision making, this wouldnt even be close to a call for me in a faster game. its real hard to say ''yh i'll call 'n take the shot at scooping a bounty with fives vs a 30bb jam.''
 
Yeah you got over 40bb if shit goes the wrong way but with previous knowledge of his QQ hand which i think is a good way to play it, i would assume he aint rofling about.. just kinda tilting seeing the flip.

i would discount aces and say its like 99-KK and AJs+ obvs