Is this a fold? ICM rookie question

[OverTheBorder]

I know nothing of stats and figures as to why I should do things.  I just click buttons but would like to know on this one. Guess trivial

Opens 5x and called in one spot, doubt we can get a fold although caller may if raiser isos.  Feels like we are likely flipping against a pair.  With the two stacks seemed an obvious fold but just felt dirty in a turbo.

PokerStars Hand #127778778228: Tournament #1087465496, $1.00+$0.10 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIII (5000/10000) - 2014/12/30 23:38:07 WET [2014/12/30 18:38:07 ET]
Table '1087465496 36' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Macseg (35331 in chips)
Seat 2: ongravity (360113 in chips)
Seat 3: badbeatpok26 (257568 in chips)
Seat 4: lwd_izzo (421529 in chips)
Seat 5: Rab90 (153057 in chips)
Seat 6: bugor 76 (32527 in chips)
Seat 9: carol@juan (375875 in chips)
Macseg: posts the ante 2000
ongravity: posts the ante 2000
badbeatpok26: posts the ante 2000
lwd_izzo: posts the ante 2000
Rab90: posts the ante 2000
bugor 76: posts the ante 2000
carol@juan: posts the ante 2000
Rab90: posts small blind 5000
bugor 76: posts big blind 10000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rab90 [As ]
carol@juan: raises 40000 to 50000
Macseg: folds
ongravity: calls 50000
badbeatpok26: folds
lwd_izzo: folds

[shipitgood]

Get it in mate! If ive read it right we have AK with 15 bigs in a turbo, dream spot

[OverTheBorder]

Get it in mate!

Two players have 3BB, that not worry you?

[shipitgood]

Not at all, the more the merrier, we want the big stacks chips.

Is it the bubble?

I'm still jamming there all day long even if it's the bubble. It's a turbo and we want as many chips as possible to bully the shorter stacks that want to ladder etc etc.

We have a fantastic hand, dominating a lot of the 5xers range, and flipping against a large part of the rest of it.

Great spot to gamble, get a stack, run deep and win it:)

[OverTheBorder]

Not at all, the more the merrier, we want the big stacks chips.

Is it the bubble?

I'm still jamming there all day long even if it's the bubble. It's a turbo and we want as many chips as possible to bully the shorter stacks that want to ladder etc etc.

We have a fantastic hand, dominating a lot of the 5xers range, and flipping against a large part of the rest of it.

Great spot to gamble, get a stack, run deep and win it:)

Should have said, final table.  $22 for 9th and $250ish for 1st

[shipitgood]

We are playing for 1st everytime. The money from 9th-4th, probs even 3rd, will be pretty insignificant. And this is a great spot to really build up some chips.

[hhyftrftdr]

We are playing for 1st everytime. The money from 9th-4th, probs even 3rd, will be pretty insignificant. And this is a great spot to really build up some chips.

Incredibly arrogant thing to say. What might be insignificant to you could be a big bankroll boost for someone else.

I think we can (just about) fold this. Not often I'd say that about big slick on a FT! Wouldn't object to you going for it, but looks like you're getting looked up in 2 spots and AKo shrinks a bit 3 way.

Table dynamic (which we're not privy too) might dictate it to be a jam though. The fact its a 5x open AND call might make it an auto all in

[shipitgood]

Incredibly arrogant thing to say. What might be insignificant to you could be a big bankroll boost for someone else.

I think we can (just about) fold this. Not often I'd say that about big slick on a FT! Wouldn't object to you going for it, but looks like you're getting looked up in 2 spots and AKo shrinks a bit 3 way.

Table dynamic (which we're not privy too) might dictate it to be a jam though. The fact its a 5x open AND call might make it an auto all in
[/quote]

haha it's bad enough you troll the sky forums, now you want to come here and troll on blonde.

It's totally disingenuous of you to misquote what I said, which was nothing to do with the stakes in question, but is relevant for all MTT's - we should always playing for 1st/ atleast the top three in MTT's as well you know.

No more feeding the troll from me, that's your one and only response.



 

[theprawnidentity]

The question is what the ICM numbers look like in this spot, so talking about how 'significant' the money is would be completely irrelevant.

To try and answer the question somewhat accurately we would need to know what all the remaining payouts are and do we have any stats / info on either villain so we can try and apportion some kind of range?

[OverTheBorder]

The question is what the ICM numbers look like in this spot, so talking about how 'significant' the money is would be completely irrelevant.

To try and answer the question somewhat accurately we would need to know what all the remaining payouts are and do we have any stats / info on either villain so we can try and apportion some kind of range?

Both villains have zero on OCR and this is 3 hands into final.  Caller seemed a tad erratic when playing with him a few tables out.  Both seemed potentially bad.  $1 rebuy so likely likely so.

Money was like $22, $33, $44, $57 $73, $105, $140, $190 $250 (rough guess)

[hhyftrftdr]

I haven't misquoted anything, it's all there in black and white for all to see. If you meant something different, you might want to look at wording things better next time. If you mean insignificant in relation to whats up top then you should make that clear. Though again, it's all relative.

Playing for first doesn't necessarily mean going gung ho with everything strong on a FT. A more subtle approach in certain spots might sometimes be required. I don't think this is as clear a GII and be happy decision as you seem to think it is. There are definite ICM considerations with 2 micro stacks. Laddering on a FT can be a fine art as well, so no, although we want to win obviously, we are not basing every decision on whether we want to finish first or not. There are shades of grey.

And please look up the meaning of the word 'troll'.

[theprawnidentity]

The question is what the ICM numbers look like in this spot, so talking about how 'significant' the money is would be completely irrelevant.

To try and answer the question somewhat accurately we would need to know what all the remaining payouts are and do we have any stats / info on either villain so we can try and apportion some kind of range?

Both villains have zero on OCR and this is 3 hands into final.  Caller seemed a tad erratic when playing with him a few tables out.  Both seemed potentially bad.  $1 rebuy so likely likely so.

Money was like $22, $33, $44, $57 $73, $105, $140, $190 $250 (rough guess)

I have run some numbers on a few ranges and both of them would have to be capable of getting it in pretty wide here for us to be good from an ICM point of view.  They would both have to be a fair bit wider than 10% of hands here for us to be able to jam.  Taking everything into account I think we should fold here unless were 100% sure that UTG is capable of doing this with kitchens.

[Rexas]

Well this thread escalated quickly -

@ OverTheBorder, I was chatting with theprawnidentity about this a little because I have basically no idea. I am leaning towards a fold, but certainly can't justify it as effectively as he can. These spots are definitely really interesting though, looking forward to seeing the results of the maths.

@shipitgood, icm is an extremely important consideration in any mtters decision making process. "Playing for first" is not the point, the point is all about making decisions that will be the most profitable for you in the long term. If you want to get good at mtts and crush tournaments, you will need to gain a solid grounding in icm.

@hhyftrftdr and shipitgood relax guys! People often type things which come out in a way they haven't intended, and imo both of you have on this occasion. Just cool it and enjoy the maths :p

[Rexas]

In before tomsom posts a repl..... O ffs.

[theprawnidentity]

This is what might happen if you ignore ICM:

" The Assyrian came down like the wolf on the fold,
And his cohorts were gleaming in purple and gold;
And the sheen of their spears was like stars on the sea,
When the blue wave rolls nightly on deep Galilee.

   Like the leaves of the forest when Summer is green,
That host with their banners at sunset were seen:
Like the leaves of the forest when Autumn hath blown,
That host on the morrow lay withered and strown.

   For the Angel of Death spread his wings on the blast,
And breathed in the face of the foe as he passed;
And the eyes of the sleepers waxed deadly and chill,
And their hearts but once heaved, and for ever grew still!

   And there lay the steed with his nostril all wide,
But through it there rolled not the breath of his pride;
And the foam of his gasping lay white on the turf,
And cold as the spray of the rock-beating surf.

   And there lay the rider distorted and pale,
With the dew on his brow, and the rust on his mail:
And the tents were all silent, the banners alone,
The lances unlifted, the trumpet unblown.

   And the widows of Ashur are loud in their wail,
And the idols are broke in the temple of Baal;
And the might of the Gentile, unsmote by the sword,
Hath melted like snow in the glance of the Lord!"