Larry's challenge thread

[Larry David]

I like it

[Larry David]

Haha. I won't run away Tal before i read this. Just caught the last line, funny quote,never heard that one.

Did you type this from your phone again

[Larry David]

Now that would be nice,revealing Tony Blooms bank statement

Point taken Tal,I do stand strong on some of the things I have posted.  I will admit I am a wind up merchant,I have found over time that the reactions from people speak volumes and I get an idea how to deal with that person in the future.   You can gage a lot from these tests , the short fused ones(no name mentioned) and the ones who are too serious.

I understand you want to keep the bickering off tft thread.  I won't post on there from now on.

[Ironside]

7 posts plus 2 months and one week till the stake thread

Odds on a quick sale aren't looking good in fact argue boy might even be laying the bets

[Kmac84]

7 posts plus 2 months and one week till the stake thread

Odds on a quick sale aren't looking good in fact argue boy might even be laying the bets

If Arb is as big a mug as Larry the Lobster thinks then he might just hover up all the stake?

[Doobs]

7 posts plus 2 months and one week till the stake thread

Odds on a quick sale aren't looking good in fact argue boy might even be laying the bets

Who is argue boy in this thread?  Surely he has been dethroned?

[typhoon13]

Lads your just rising to Larrys bait

No matter what you say he will try and find fault, hes just admitted that

Arb backs up his choices and quite frankly Larry a'int come out with anything constructive

Leave Larry alone dont give him the opportunity

Circles circles circles

[simonnatur]

@tal, what did you mean by 42 posts until staking?  I don't think I will last that long,I can sense the end of a short stay.

Please don't say that, was starting to warm to you. Everyone loves a plucky underdog.

[Chompy]

Honestly don't understand why anyone indulges.

[vegaslover]

If only there were some way of looking at the statistics of a healthy sample of bets placed on blondepoker...

Have a look at the first post on Tips for Tikay. The stats are there. A healthy profit over a substantial sample. Allow for some recreational or fun bets and the ROI is very impressive in the "betfair and restricted accounts era" in which we now live.

There aren't many people who make good money from sports betting these days. You're picking a fight with one. Doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes, but your posts don't demonstrate the level of analysis and certainly don't demonstrate the depth of understanding that arbboy's posts consistently portray. Fella knows his onions.

It's great when someone comes along to challenge existing philosophies, because it gives us all a chance to reflect. The problem is, if the new guy is fundamentally resistant to the established methods and reasoning, it'll never do anything but cause conflict.

And here we are.

There are some really savvy mathmos who are members of blonde. Your arguments about not backing 1/10 shots (because once the price contracts beyond a certain point, it's basically subjective) would undoubtedly have amused or bemused the maths guys almost as much as your comment about it being harder to make money in Cheltenham than any other racing occasion will have made the horsey types guffaw.

This isn't another forum full of guys who quite fancy the six dog because they just saw it have a wee in the parade or who will back a football team because they've won their last three.

As for the peaks and troughs, they don't just appreciate that variance exists, they actually understand the maths behind it, allow for it and apply their knowledge to profitable effect.

You clearly have some sporting knowledge and a grasp of lots of the numbers, but some of your posts have given the impression of being dismissive, where you risk alienating people, rather than educating or, dare I say it, being educated yourself. Within that, you risk coming across as someone just looking to wind up others, which is a shame, because it's a fun forum full of good eggs.

Either reveal yourself to be Tony Bloom, be more receptive in your approach or look for a forum populated by cashout merchants who don't understand decimal odds, where you can be worshipped as a deity.

I reckon you could be fun if you let someone else play with the controller every now and then.

POTY where Larry is concerned.
Time will all left Larry to himself

[BigAdz]

Larry.

There is absolutely no point in trying to prove Argueboy wrong. He has the numbers/maths down to a T, and is the King of extracting value from "done deals".

There is a lot to be learnt from his lessons, even if most of the people here don't actually follow him in on his 1-6, 1-20 doubles, it helps us all in our betting.

It also doesn't mean he is the King of betting, and every bet he recommends wins, because they don't, but you can be fairly sure they have the right maths behind them.

So if you have good spots, keep em coming, I for one am happy to listen, but if he says the maths is wrong, don't waste your breath.

Doesn't mean your bet can't win though!

[arbboy]

Given the Cavs are 3/1 tight on betfair to win the NBA and they are best priced 5/6 to win the East that makes them a 6/5 shot (4.0/1.83=2.2) on average to win the finals against a RANDOM western team.  Given the Spurs are the 2nd Fav in the West i would strongly suggest the Cavs should go off bigger than 6/5 in a finals series against the Spurs based on pretty strong ante post market prices now.

Not entirely sure how the Cavs are so certain to go off favs (never mind huge favs) in the finals against most of the Western Conf powerhouses when the vast majority (6) of the West conf teams will have home court advantage over the Cavs in the finals (play 4 games at home and 3 away) should the Cavs get there by way of a better regular season record (including the Spurs) as we stand.

I shouldn't really bite i know but trolls who can't add up/perform simple maths on ante post markets up really tilt me. Just thought i would correct Lazza and avoid loyal followers being sent the wrong way.  I won't comment on the other basic maths faux pas earlier in the post where a 4/1 4/5 double doesn't come to anywhere near 7/1 either.  (5x 1.8=9.0) or 8/1.  The correct price you needed for that calc was 1.6 (8/13) lazza not 1.8.

Keep pin sticking and trolling son.  Leave the real work to the pro's.  
 

[Larry David]

You think spurs will go off favs against the cavs? No chance

[Larry David]

£10 spurs 7/1 returns £80. £10 spurs conference 4/1 returns £50 onto 4/5 returns £90

So they go off favs slightly at 4/5 it is still better than 7/1

They will go off outsiders. Evens at best and £10 4/1 + evs = 9/1 shot for your money

Lol@ pros. 

[arbboy]

£10 spurs 7/1 returns £80. £10 spurs conference 4/1 returns £50 onto 4/5 returns £90

So they go off favs slightly at 4/5 it is still better than 7/1

They will go off outsiders. Evens at best and £10 4/1 + evs = 9/1 shot for your money

Lol@ pros.  

last time lazza.  What happens the 45% of the time the Cavs don't make the finals?  What price are the Spurs then?  Your lol maths is quite comical!  

Lazza is basically saying 3/1 the Cavs is a huge price because they are already in the NBA finals (100% certain even though the market makes them 55% likely to win the East) and will be a fav against any team in the West even though the market makes them a 45% dog to be favs in the final.  So if you believe the lazza lol maths you are getting 3/1 about the Cavs when they should be odds on.  Alternatively you can work through logically the maths i put up based on rock solid ante post markets.  I will leave it up the followers to decide.