Another 25/25 exit hand because the last PHA attempts went so well

[George2Loose]

If he is never bluffing against his range I think it's a pretty easy fold. I'd try not to think about hands in terms of "ahead" or not but in terms of the equity his range has. Also I wouldn't worry about betting for protection on such a wet board. I'd prefer to get to river as cheaply as possible or get some value on the turn

[Tal]

what kind of hands do you think he's doing it with? kq/aq? or what did you expect?

Ok, hands like:

T8
T9
76
KQhh
Ax hh

Won't be small pairs and won't be big pairs, including sets.

That's essentially what I decided at the table. Stacks and pot seem ideal for me to play the hand as I did.

Happy to be educated otherwise.

I think u will never see 67 in this spot. He surely folds this pre and doesn't c/raise with it when he could be dead to the top end and also has hearts to worry about.

The rest of the hands you listed you're not in great shape against

67 least likely of those mentioned, agreed.

As for shape, flipping at worst and getting a good price with fold equity?

[George2Loose]

This is where u need to run your numbers but I think you're in worse shape than u think. You're either flipping or dead

[George2Loose]

Check back and call turn and river on some run outs and just call turn on others

[Tal]

what kind of hands do you think he's doing it with? kq/aq? or what did you expect?

Ok, hands like:

T8
T9
76
KQhh
Ax hh

Won't be small pairs and won't be big pairs, including sets.

That's essentially what I decided at the table. Stacks and pot seem ideal for me to play the hand as I did.

Happy to be educated otherwise.

why do you think he's calling t8/t9/76 pre?

I've played with him a bit over the years (local comp player) and middle, broadly connected cards are fairly common. 4,500 more and he will know that UTG could have an awful lot of hands, plus I might fold. T8 type hands certainly there, IMO.

and finally, what do you think your range looks like?

Let's assume he has a perceived view of me from the past, because I'm certain he does.

I could do this with AA/KK/QQ (though I'd probably raise pre, but I could trap and I'd prob bet more on the flop. Wouldn't be unheard of for me to misplay a hand). I could do this with TT/KT/Tx, if I were trying to get him to raise to get it all in. I think he would put me on those and the hand I have.

However, he has a queen and a ten on this board and he'd be concentrating far more on hoping I shove than worrying about what I might have to do so. I don't mean that disrespectfully, but I think it's fair.

[George2Loose]

If he knows your range on that flop includes over pairs why would he raise some of the hands you mentioned?

[Pinchop73]

As for shape, flipping at worst and getting a good price with fold equity?

Why do you want fold equity?

[Tal]

Happy with the call pre?

[Tal]

As for shape, flipping at worst and getting a good price with fold equity?

Why do you want fold equity?

Am I not happy to win the pot here, risk free?

[Tal]

If he knows your range on that flop includes over pairs why would he raise some of the hands you mentioned?

Fair point. That is the truthful answer of what I think, if questioned, he would assess as my range as. However, I come back to the point I doubt he's actually decided on a range of hands here. If he has a draw, he wants to get it in, if I'm not going to check it down.

If I check behind, he is going to be happy to check it down until he hits and probably won't bluff the missed river more than a third of the time.

[George2Loose]

I think you're over estimating the times he is r/folding here

[Tal]

I think you're over estimating the times he is r/folding here

Quite possibly, but isn't any time better than never?

[Tal]

This is really interesting, though. Keep it coming!

[George2Loose]

And again I'd probably encourage u to not post results. Perhaps get to the flop and ask wwyd? Once u have responses then ask wwyd after he c/raises. Results cloud responses

[George2Loose]

I think you're over estimating the times he is r/folding here

Quite possibly, but isn't any time better than never?

Well I assume you're trying to make the best long term decision not just in 10/100 instances