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Author Topic: Chris Vernon- Vegas Package 2015  (Read 19851 times)
rfgqqabc
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2015, 05:46:08 PM »

Surely the election is already factored in in the currency markets Frazer?
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2015, 05:49:24 PM »

Surely the election is already factored in in the currency markets Fraser?

Sure....one rate for Tory and one rate for Labour   Smiley

As I said its just my opinion based on chats I've had with a couple of financial guys
« Last Edit: May 05, 2015, 06:01:27 PM by FUN4FRASER » Logged
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2015, 06:39:24 PM »

think you're struggling to physically get 1.52 today

advertised and actual are somewhat different  so you may want to check it out before " locking it in" Chris

just what google said, and xe.com had it as 1.519 or something similar. as i said on OP, not done this before, so any help regarding the rates please say! Was sold out, and Pads has reserved any drop outs.
sorrymate! whats the advice in regard to the rate then?

Im watching it closely waiting to buy mine hence my comments

the 1.52 advertised is more like 1.47 at best as we speak ( unless somebody has good source)

ok, thanks. what should i do on here then?

Do as you are doing.  You are charging 1.1 anyway.  Using xe is pretty standard. 
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tikay
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2015, 07:05:46 PM »



What Doobs said, imo.

It's swings & roundabouts, as long as you use the same process when repaying investors.
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2015, 07:08:55 PM »

think you're struggling to physically get 1.52 today

advertised and actual are somewhat different  so you may want to check it out before " locking it in" Chris

just what google said, and xe.com had it as 1.519 or something similar. as i said on OP, not done this before, so any help regarding the rates please say! Was sold out, and Pads has reserved any drop outs.
sorrymate! whats the advice in regard to the rate then?

Im watching it closely waiting to buy mine hence my comments

the 1.52 advertised is more like 1.47 at best as we speak ( unless somebody has good source)

ok, thanks. what should i do on here then?

Do as you are doing.  You are charging 1.1 anyway.  Using xe is pretty standard. 

As far as I am aware (or what I have done in the past) Is lock in a "fair" (usually xe.com) rate when i whack up a package. Then if there are magical returns use xe.com for them on small amounts or the best price you can get the $$$ back into £££.

Some people will transfer you $$$ on stars, some people will give you $$$ in vegas. So it tends to balance out.

I generally mark up "abroad" packages, not just because the fields are softer but to give me some leeway with exchange rates, and the work that goes into transferring $$$ into £££ etc. I dont think most people mind as long as you are clear with what you were doing.

As far as I can see best rates at the minute are 1.51 with top travel cards and 1.49 elsewhere.
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2015, 07:09:52 PM »

Oh and good luck to you and investors, looking unlikley I will see you out there at the minute but if i decide to switch from buying a house to going to vegas then ill see you in spearmint Wink
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2015, 09:56:27 PM »

Oh and good luck to you and investors, looking unlikley I will see you out there at the minute but if i decide to switch from buying a house to going to vegas then ill see you in spearmint Wink

House Schmouse!

The houses will all still be there after you get back. And this way you can spin up and buy a much bigger one!
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2015, 10:39:28 PM »

Surely the election is already factored in in the currency markets Fraser?

Sure....one rate for Tory and one rate for Labour   Smiley

As I said its just my opinion based on chats I've had with a couple of financial guys

Your completely right, despite it being factored in from an ev point atm that doesn't help someone buying dollars in a month's  time!
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2015, 11:16:26 PM »

There's a great place in London that I got dollars from at 1.51 last week (it was 0.1% above xe on a decent amount). ThomasExchangeGlobal - thanks to ryan for that link.

I thought better to get them before the election because there'll definitely be some uncertainty. I'm not sure where Fraser gets his intel from, last I checked Ed was favourite to be our next PM!
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2015, 11:49:35 PM »

Standard high street is usually around 4-5 cents less than xe when buying dollars. Selling back for sterling is like 20cents worse so avoid that. I would expect you to know enough players to swap/exchange with though.

As Alex has stated the London exchanges have the best rates, if economical for you to go and get them.


Apart from the very short, which may affect those going to Vegas this year, can't see either result making much difference. £-$ rate has been shit throughout the last five years
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« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2015, 12:16:03 AM »

ill take all dollars you have in vegas at the end then send back to everybody on stars at xe?
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« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2015, 01:27:45 AM »

If a small % opens up let me know! GL
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« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2015, 03:24:39 AM »

Totally disagree with pads about the one drop btw.

I didn't play it last year but this year I believe that it is structured so that you can choose to BI for 1k and gets 5k starting and pay the donation and get 10k.  Obv its the same difference as everyones taking the 10k but American's love charity and it'll have a huge field plus the chips/structure is really good.

Obv the 1k at the Nugget will be soft but you'll also see a lower field.  I guess if you wanna try and lower variance then play the nugget.

Saw you hvae sold out.  Haven't finalised what I'm playing yet but if you are interested in a small 1 or 2pc swap then let me know.
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« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2015, 04:06:11 AM »

i may be completely wrong here, but its a 900+211?

So we need a 23% egde to break even right? Then there is a 10% markup, so for it to be +ev he needs a 33% edge.

if we have an identical edge in both tournaments then

We've established PH likely softer than one drop, lets say his edge is 33% in one drop and 40% in PH it doesnt even matter that its "lower variance" we're simply making more $/game in nugget.

if we were playing a tournament to lower variance it would be more the other way round, we play a 300 runner field with 33% roi instead of the 6000 field with 40% roi because we want to reduce variance.

if we think his roi is higher in the nugget AND it is lower variance then obv its a slam dunk. so from an investment point of view its obviously way better to play the nugget if we do actually think rois there are higher than the one drop. but if we just want to go big or go home and care less about this as an investment and more of a LFG BINK ONE TIME then clearly it would be one drop all day.

its 4.15am here so may be wrong here but actually dont we only have a roi on the money put in the prizepool and not the rake.

so lets say we have an identical roi in both tournaments.

nugget - $1000 + 150   (given overly high mark up, usually tournaments are way less in vegas as they use them for promotions not money making)
one drop - $900 + 211

nugget 30% roi = 1000x0.3= $300 - $150 = $150 total profit from tournament - 115 (markup) = total profit of $35
one drop 30% roi = 900x0.3 = $270 - $211 = $49 total profit from tournament  - 111 (markup) = total loss of $62

So lets say nugget/ph we have a 30% roi, to make one drop playable we need to have

one drop 40% roi = 900x0.5= $360 - $211 = $149 total profit from tournament - 111 (markup) = $37 total profit from tournament

So essentially if we have a 30% roi in the nugget we need to have a 40% roi in the one drop to play it, before we even take into account variance.

Once you start having a 60% vs a 30% roi things change, but rois are usually vastly exaggerated in my opinion.

This isn't a dig at Chris btw, I reserved action etc, just in the "why buy" part of OP it was all things about his poker pedigree and thus trying to portray it as a chance for investment and thus charged a MARK UP that he gets to profit from the tournament no matter what in comparison to borntobubble who last year (fml if this is wrong) went to vegas and was more like LFGGGGGGGGGGG and really wanted to spin it up and people invested for different reasons (obviously was +ev package regardless)

Again not me having a go at all, wasn't my intention when posting etc, just wanted to debate on this a little bit, I could be totally off with my math too and if so then apologies Smiley
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« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2015, 04:34:40 AM »

Totally disagree with pads about the one drop btw.

I didn't play it last year but this year I believe that it is structured so that you can choose to BI for 1k and gets 5k starting and pay the donation and get 10k.  Obv its the same difference as everyones taking the 10k but American's love charity and it'll have a huge field plus the chips/structure is really good.

Obv the 1k at the Nugget will be soft but you'll also see a lower field.  I guess if you wanna try and lower variance then play the nugget.

Saw you hvae sold out.  Haven't finalised what I'm playing yet but if you are interested in a small 1 or 2pc swap then let me know.

awesome, swap sounds good!!

i may be completely wrong here, but its a 900+211?

So we need a 23% egde to break even right? Then there is a 10% markup, so for it to be +ev he needs a 33% edge.

if we have an identical edge in both tournaments then

We've established PH likely softer than one drop, lets say his edge is 33% in one drop and 40% in PH it doesnt even matter that its "lower variance" we're simply making more $/game in nugget.

if we were playing a tournament to lower variance it would be more the other way round, we play a 300 runner field with 33% roi instead of the 6000 field with 40% roi because we want to reduce variance.

if we think his roi is higher in the nugget AND it is lower variance then obv its a slam dunk. so from an investment point of view its obviously way better to play the nugget if we do actually think rois there are higher than the one drop. but if we just want to go big or go home and care less about this as an investment and more of a LFG BINK ONE TIME then clearly it would be one drop all day.

its 4.15am here so may be wrong here but actually dont we only have a roi on the money put in the prizepool and not the rake.

so lets say we have an identical roi in both tournaments.

nugget - $1000 + 150   (given overly high mark up, usually tournaments are way less in vegas as they use them for promotions not money making)
one drop - $900 + 211

nugget 30% roi = 1000x0.3= $300 - $150 = $150 total profit from tournament - 115 (markup) = total profit of $35
one drop 30% roi = 900x0.3 = $270 - $211 = $49 total profit from tournament  - 111 (markup) = total loss of $62

So lets say nugget/ph we have a 30% roi, to make one drop playable we need to have

one drop 40% roi = 900x0.5= $360 - $211 = $149 total profit from tournament - 111 (markup) = $37 total profit from tournament

So essentially if we have a 30% roi in the nugget we need to have a 40% roi in the one drop to play it, before we even take into account variance.

Once you start having a 60% vs a 30% roi things change, but rois are usually vastly exaggerated in my opinion.

This isn't a dig at Chris btw, I reserved action etc, just in the "why buy" part of OP it was all things about his poker pedigree and thus trying to portray it as a chance for investment and thus charged a MARK UP that he gets to profit from the tournament no matter what in comparison to borntobubble who last year (fml if this is wrong) went to vegas and was more like LFGGGGGGGGGGG and really wanted to spin it up and people invested for different reasons (obviously was +ev package regardless)

Again not me having a go at all, wasn't my intention when posting etc, just wanted to debate on this a little bit, I could be totally off with my math too and if so then apologies Smiley


like the debate, and defo want to be playing some better value comps, as a wsop virgin, not sure on the best ones etc. definitely want to play the one drop, understand that roi is possibly better in the nugget for example, but its the main comp to play while we are there and would be a real shame to miss it.
spoken to a couple of people, and consensus is to maybe drop the $1500 50/50 and play the planet hollywood, 1m gte $1150 and maybe another deepstack whilst there.
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