i may be completely wrong here, but its a 900+211?
So we need a 23% egde to break even right? Then there is a 10% markup, so for it to be +ev he needs a 33% edge.
if we have an identical edge in both tournaments then
We've established PH likely softer than one drop, lets say his edge is 33% in one drop and 40% in PH it doesnt even matter that its "lower variance" we're simply making more $/game in nugget.
if we were playing a tournament to lower variance it would be more the other way round, we play a 300 runner field with 33% roi instead of the 6000 field with 40% roi because we want to reduce variance.
if we think his roi is higher in the nugget AND it is lower variance then obv its a slam dunk. so from an investment point of view its obviously way better to play the nugget if we do actually think rois there are higher than the one drop. but if we just want to go big or go home and care less about this as an investment and more of a LFG BINK ONE TIME then clearly it would be one drop all day.
its 4.15am here so may be wrong here but actually dont we only have a roi on the money put in the prizepool and not the rake.
so lets say we have an identical roi in both tournaments.
nugget - $1000 + 150 (given overly high mark up, usually tournaments are way less in vegas as they use them for promotions not money making)
one drop - $900 + 211
nugget 30% roi = 1000x0.3= $300 - $150 = $150 total profit from tournament - 115 (markup) =
total profit of $35one drop 30% roi = 900x0.3 = $270 - $211 = $49 total profit from tournament - 111 (markup) =
total loss of $62 So lets say nugget/ph we have a 30% roi, to make one drop playable we need to have
one drop 40% roi = 900x0.5= $360 - $211 = $149 total profit from tournament - 111 (markup) = $37 total profit from tournament
So essentially if we have a 30% roi in the nugget we need to have a 40% roi in the one drop to play it, before we even take into account variance.
Once you start having a 60% vs a 30% roi things change, but rois are usually vastly exaggerated in my opinion.
This isn't a dig at Chris btw, I reserved action etc, just in the "why buy" part of OP it was all things about his poker pedigree and thus trying to portray it as a chance for investment and thus charged a MARK UP that he gets to profit from the tournament no matter what in comparison to borntobubble who last year (fml if this is wrong) went to vegas and was more like LFGGGGGGGGGGG and really wanted to spin it up and people invested for different reasons (obviously was +ev package regardless)
Again not me having a go at all, wasn't my intention when posting etc, just wanted to debate on this a little bit, I could be totally off with my math too and if so then apologies