The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RickBFA]

Corbyn not looking very comfortable at all on Andrew Marr Show.

[doubleup]

An indicator of how big the jump in expectancy has been in recent years is in the diagram below.  There really hadn't been a vast change in the most common date of death for nearly 100 years until recently (although the % of the population reaching that age was less).  (The modal date of death is an important indicator as it ignores infant mortality and catastrophes like epidemics and war).

Source of diagram: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthinequalities/articles/mostcommonageatdeathbysocioeconomicpositionsinenglandandwales/a30yearscomparison

This.

I wasn't really supporting your argument.  I was pointing out that in the last two or three decades there has been a huge leap in the age that older people can expect to live to.  It might be that the lifestyle changes and medical advances that are the cause of this have somewhat stalled, so it wouldn't take much in the way of stress to cause the decline in expectancy. (Though I don't know what sections of the population have been most affected by the decline eg higher infant mortality?  Perhaps doobs has the stats.)

[kukushkin88]

An indicator of how big the jump in expectancy has been in recent years is in the diagram below.  There really hadn't been a vast change in the most common date of death for nearly 100 years until recently (although the % of the population reaching that age was less).  (The modal date of death is an important indicator as it ignores infant mortality and catastrophes like epidemics and war).

Source of diagram: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthinequalities/articles/mostcommonageatdeathbysocioeconomicpositionsinenglandandwales/a30yearscomparison

This.

I wasn't really supporting your argument.  I was pointing out that in the last two or three decades there has been a huge leap in the age that older people can expect to live to.  It might be that the lifestyle changes and medical advances that are the cause of this have somewhat stalled, so it wouldn't take much in the way of stress to cause the decline in expectancy. (Though I don't know what sections of the population have been most affected by the decline eg higher infant mortality?  Perhaps doobs has the stats.)

It provides data for comparison, once we have that, the argument speaks for itself.

[kukushkin88]

An indicator of how big the jump in expectancy has been in recent years is in the diagram below.  There really hadn't been a vast change in the most common date of death for nearly 100 years until recently (although the % of the population reaching that age was less).  (The modal date of death is an important indicator as it ignores infant mortality and catastrophes like epidemics and war).

Source of diagram: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthinequalities/articles/mostcommonageatdeathbysocioeconomicpositionsinenglandandwales/a30yearscomparison

This.

I wasn't really supporting your argument.  I was pointing out that in the last two or three decades there has been a huge leap in the age that older people can expect to live to.  It might be that the lifestyle changes and medical advances that are the cause of this have somewhat stalled, so it wouldn't take much in the way of stress to cause the decline in expectancy. (Though I don't know what sections of the population have been most affected by the decline eg higher infant mortality?  Perhaps doobs has the stats.)

It provides data for comparison, once we have that, the argument speaks for itself.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2018-04-18/debates/6AEE73CE-7C3C-4DC0-A8EB-DA7FE45A34EE/AusterityLifeExpectancy

[Doobs]

An indicator of how big the jump in expectancy has been in recent years is in the diagram below.  There really hadn't been a vast change in the most common date of death for nearly 100 years until recently (although the % of the population reaching that age was less).  (The modal date of death is an important indicator as it ignores infant mortality and catastrophes like epidemics and war).

Source of diagram: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthinequalities/articles/mostcommonageatdeathbysocioeconomicpositionsinenglandandwales/a30yearscomparison

This.

I wasn't really supporting your argument.  I was pointing out that in the last two or three decades there has been a huge leap in the age that older people can expect to live to.  It might be that the lifestyle changes and medical advances that are the cause of this have somewhat stalled, so it wouldn't take much in the way of stress to cause the decline in expectancy. (Though I don't know what sections of the population have been most affected by the decline eg higher infant mortality?  Perhaps doobs has the stats.)

I haven't seen the detail by age, but suspect it is across the board.   There is definitely a clear rich/poor divide, which means that as rich people buy bigger annuities and have bigger pensions than poor people, the overall effect of the population stalled mortality improvements isn't that great for life and pension companies.

There is an interesting discussion around quality of life vs life expectancy, maybe on another thread. My father had dementia from around 65 until he died.  I'd say that even though his quality of life deteriorated from where I was sitting, he certainly spent much of that time with a smile on his face.  Sure he had bad times, but all people do.  Given you couldn't really ask him, it is pretty hard to make firm conclusions on what he thought of his quality of life.  FWIW  He definitely caused a deterioration in the qualoty of life for his wife.   Near the very end his quality of life got a lot worse.  

It isn't necesarily an age thing though; my mum is in her 80s and though her quality of life isn't perfect, she is doing way better than my dad was 10 years earlier.  Many people in their 90s are doing fine and ard sharper mentally than my Dad was in his late 60s.  So increased life expectancy is definitely a good thing for some, and not so great for others. I would be interested to hear other people's views on the quality of life of people with dementia.  I have heard others wish their close family members who suffered were dead, but it was much more nuanced for me.

Anyway, to get back to politics, the criticism of May is getting more public, and the shift in the labour second referendum position is quite surprising to me.  I assumed they were going to stubbornly hold that line.  

[nirvana]

I'm pretty sure Corbyn & McDonnell haven't shifted position but they're kind of hoist by their own petard with the 'democratisation' theme they have espoused. Now, it's possible that the membership may demand a second ref and if that is forced or democrated through to become policy. should that happen I think the labour party will be even further split based on the very different views of labour members versus vast numbers of labour voters:

a) That is very bad for Corbyn's position as he can no longer keep finding a fence to sit on and repeat the mantra around 6 tests.
b) More widely it's very bad for the broader labour party
b) If it forces a general election along remain/leave lines I think the most likely outcome is a stronger mandate to leave and a more certain 5 year period of Tory Government

[kukushkin88]

I'm pretty sure Corbyn & McDonnell haven't shifted position but they're kind of hoist by their own petard with the 'democratisation' theme they have espoused. Now, it's possible that the membership may demand a second ref and if that is forced or democrated through to become policy. should that happen I think the labour party will be even further split based on the very different views of labour members versus vast numbers of labour voters:

a) That is very bad for Corbyn's position as he can no longer keep finding a fence to sit on and repeat the mantra around 6 tests.
b) More widely it's very bad for the broader labour party
b) If it forces a general election along remain/leave lines I think the most likely outcome is a stronger mandate to leave and a more certain 5 year period of Tory Government

It would be an interesting GE in that scenario. This thread would be lively if Corbyn won a GE to save us from Brexit.

[MANTIS01]

Considering all the folk dying in poverty at the hands of our government I do find Labour's reaction curious. If I could save even one child from dying I would spring into action. Yet Jewish problems are the first priority before the children saving. You could say their failure to launch effective opposition and a robust enough reaction to such travesties is a contributing factor to such statistics. We could keep pushing the perspective of blame around and to what end?

In reality I bet the Brexit fiasco has impacted many voters and just blindly following a party will be less common. I know I care much less about it and like many am simply waiting to be engaged.

But this constant scathing rhetoric from Remoan needs to stop. There are huge divisions in public opinion and within political parties, splashed all over the paper, project fear, calls for another referendum. Really all this achieved was to drastically weaken what was already a tenuous negotiating position. Additionally +1 to neeko because our divisions are eroding the very confidence we need to build an economy that supports so many poor people types. No wonder Europe is playing tough, they must be loving this. We really need to accept a vote and then unite as a country if we want that LE to rise. But sure, keep on blaming whoever and making a fuss or flying those witty baby trump balloons. Great work so far.

[TightEnd]

A good representation

[RickBFA]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45622161

If you think Mrs May is bad, it has taken Labour five hours of discussion and six re-drafts just to put a motion to conference on Brexit.

Both parties are split on the issue and have weak, awful leadership.

[TightEnd]

Flights would immediately cease between the UK and the rest of the EU if Britain crashes out of the bloc without a deal, the government has warned.

In its latest set of “no deal” notices, the government has said planes would be grounded because the EU-issued aviation licences would not be valid and airlines would have to “seek individual permissions” to operate with respective states.

“If the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 with no agreement in place, UK and EU licensed airlines would lose the automatic right to operate air services between the UK and the EU without seeking advance permission,” said the government.

The government is hoping to strike a “bare bones” deal with the EU to keep flights in the air, it says

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/uk-eu-flights-would-cease-immediately-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

Political editor prediction

there will be a backbench amendment for a 2nd referendum to reverse Brexit.

Voting for: SNP, Libs, 150-200 Labour Remainers, 50-100 pro-EU Tories?

Voting against: PM, Cabinet, Corbyn, McDonnell, Tory and Labour Brexiteers, DUP. 300 plus?

Vote will be v close.

[TightEnd]

British government concedes it may not have enough time to renegotiate permits for lorry drivers in 'no deal' Brexit memo. This would mean, according to the industry, "complete and utter chaos" at ports

[TightEnd]

Food & drink foundation (never heard of them!) have seen new Brexit No Deal notices...  call them “grisly” suggest A50 extension:

“Today’s Technical Notices lay bare the grisly prospect of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. We face chaos at the ports, serious disruption to food supplies, rising consumer prices...”

[Doobs]

Political editor prediction

there will be a backbench amendment for a 2nd referendum to reverse Brexit.

Voting for: SNP, Libs, 150-200 Labour Remainers, 50-100 pro-EU Tories?

Voting against: PM, Cabinet, Corbyn, McDonnell, Tory and Labour Brexiteers, DUP. 300 plus?

Vote will be v close.

Does labour even get that many rebels under Corbyn anymore and haven't the pro-EU tory rebels been limited to a handful?