The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Just published - the Government's legal advice on the Brexit deal (a summary, not the whole thing)


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/761153/EU_Exit_-_Legal_position_on_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf

cliffs, attorney general says irish backstop is indefinite if no replacement is agreed

[TightEnd]

some chatter that the DUP have upped the (big blind) ante further by threatening not just to vote against the deal but then support Labour in the no confidence vote that will follow. Which would seem remarkable given Corbyns view on a United Ireland but we are in interesting times

in the light of that

Confidence vote maths.
320 to win (strips out 11 non voting MPs - speakers + SF).
Tories have 314 + 2 Ind ex Tories, so 316.
Labour needs DUP, all other parties + 5 Ind ex Labour MPs to get to 322.
Lady Sylvia Hermon can vote either way.

It's tight.

I had previously thought May wouldn't lose a no conf vote but if the DUP do swing (worst use of a billion quid ever, Mrs May) then its all up for grabs

[TightEnd]

A final (?) Brexit irony:

Remainers' best hope now is Brexiters voting down May's Brexit as not pure enough, in a vote only happening because Remainers voted for an amendment that Brexiters called a betrayal of Brexit as it was a Remainer trick to stop May pursuing a pure Brexit.

[Tal]

some chatter that the DUP have upped the (big blind) ante further by threatening not just to vote against the deal but then support Labour in the no confidence vote that will follow. Which would seem remarkable given Corbyns view on a United Ireland but we are in interesting times

in the light of that

Confidence vote maths.
320 to win (strips out 11 non voting MPs - speakers + SF).
Tories have 314 + 2 Ind ex Tories, so 316.
Labour needs DUP, all other parties + 5 Ind ex Labour MPs to get to 322.
Lady Sylvia Hermon can vote either way.

It's tight.

I had previously thought May wouldn't lose a no conf vote but if the DUP do swing (worst use of a billion quid ever, Mrs May) then its all up for grabs

Imagine being told six months ago the DUP would support Jeremy Corbyn on a vote. On anything. Let alone this.

[TightEnd]

 Labour, DUP, Lib Dems, SNP and Plaid Cymru join forces to demand contempt of Parliament proceedings over secret Brexit legal advice


https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/attorney-general-geoffrey-cox-faces-contempt-of-parliament-action-after-he-refuses-to-publish-secret-legal-advice-on-brexit_uk_5c0568dfe4b07aec57514e1f?4gg

[TightEnd]

Labour’s Brexit Position - A columnist View

1. TM’s Deal will fail first vote
2. There will not be a GE
3. Labour’s Brexit alternative does not work
4. If nothing else happens, A50 ends w/ no deal
5. If not enough votes for a 2nd ref, Labour will enable TM’s deal (ie abstain at 2nd vote)

[TightEnd]

A major contradiction in Brexiter position.

For months they've said technology can solve NI border.

If so, no reason for backstop to be used/for long.

So the current outrage that UK could be permanently 'trapped' in backstop suggests they know technology *can't* solve NI border?

[TightEnd]

Advocate General of European Court rules that UK can withdraw its Article 50 notification to leave the EU unilaterally. UK would not need permission of other member states.

If confirmed by ECJ this would make new referendum easier because a remain vote could be implemented straight away, so is potentially major news should a second referendum be the only viable solution to finding a way forward

[TightEnd]

Well worth reading George Bridges, who resigned as a Brexit minister over May’s approach, on what to do now. He is clear about the failures that led us here and the sheer unpredictability of what happens if the withdrawal agreement is voted down

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/12/george-bridges-the-prime-ministers-brexit-deal-the-choice-facing-parliament-is-compromise-or-chaos.html

cliffs: the only way to ensure some sort of brexit happens is to vote for her deal. voting it down could mean remain (amongst a host of other things)

[TightEnd]

When all the Brexit chat is about parliamentary shenanigans it’s easy to forget that these decisions will have real-world impacts, including a potential no deal… here’s a quick look at where no deal planning currently stands:

[TightEnd]

First the good news: the Government has struck agreements with the USA, Canada and 8 other countries to ensure flights can continue even in the case of no deal (nothing yet on flights to/from/within EU countries though)

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-us-agree-new-open-skies-arrangements

[TightEnd]

And the Government’s lottery for road haulage permits has opened – so if you’re a haulage company that wants to transport goods across the EU after a no deal Brexit, get your application in now for a 5% chance of securing a permit

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/ecmt-international-road-haulage-permits

[TightEnd]

 But there’s bad news too: the competition watchdog, the CMA, has said formally it won’t be fully ready to take on all its new responsibilities and carry on with the day job in March next year if we leave with no deal:

https://www.ft.com/content/2c4208e0-f72b-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c

[TightEnd]

And the Government is considering how best to ration space on ferries coming into Dover to make sure that critical supply chains are maintained – meaning Spanish and Dutch vegetables may not reach our shelves:

https://www.ft.com/content/9e3bda3a-f720-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c

[TightEnd]

This raises the point that it’s business that are on the front line of managing no deal – as Toyota told r4 today this morning, factories rely on the free flow of goods that would be frustrated by a no deal exit