The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Boris Johnson’s plan is to say, ‘believe in Brexit’, in lots of different ways. The Independent

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-commons-brexit-optimism-corbyn-parliament-a9020776.html

[TightEnd]

Alberto Nardelli

"Boris Johnson doesn’t want a deal. He’s preparing for an election. He will paint himself as the champion of Britain, everyone else as talking the country down. Reality is project fear & gloom. He speaks in slogans. No details nor policies. It’s the 2016 referendum all over again."

[TightEnd]

New chief secretary Rushi Sunak’s commitment to debt falling every year is significant.

That gives you headroom of only about £20 billion in the medium term, and that’s assuming the OBR forecast doesn’t get worse.

In a no deal scenario that will be v difficult to stick too...

[TightEnd]

Britannia Unchained

piece by Eaton on the 2012 book by a few free marketeers seen as a bunch of eccentrics - who now run the government

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/britannia-unchained-free-market-book-defines-boris-johnson-s-new-cabinet

[TightEnd]

and saving the best till last

Grey, which is another very lucid read

"An extraordinary week. My latest Brexit Blog post analyses Johnson's early words and deeds, discusses how - despite appearances - this is not a completely new chapter in Brexit, and offers some thoughts on where it's all heading.

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/an-extraordinary-week.html

[MANTIS01]

and following on from that

Tories (Cummings) flooding Facebook with Boris Johnson ads. Likely testing messages ahead of a planned general election campaign.

obv leave campaign 2016 had a huge success with social and new media compared to stuffy old remain

https://www.channel4.com/news/could-online-adverts-promoting-boris-johnson-be-a-sign-that-a-general-election-will-be-called

New Netflix documentary The Great Hack shows how data mining and targeted advertising won the Leave vote and then went on to win the Trump campaign. Trump’s team were spending £1m per day on Facebook with tailor made messages hitting the emotional preferences of every American voter.

Anybody who thinks lying and advertising have no place in modern politics will be left in the dark ages. Afraid it’s all about manipulation now.

[TightEnd]

Mantis

"Boris has the talent to write some numbers on a bus and it convinces the majority of people to vote leave. Now onto the GE where he simply needs to put bigger numbers on larger bus and let's gogogo to big majority in commons.  "

you might be right. parts of the leave vote and Trump brazenly talking any old bollocks and getting elected are evidence ofit

In your heart of hearts though this is very depressing isn't it? that policy, truth and principle don't matter. That voters will swallow any old crap (lack of knowledge, lack of interest etc)?

But there is no other option is there? It's just whose crap do we want to swallow.

It isn’t the case though. There haven’t been political campaigns in recent times in the UK/US dominated entirely by and won through lying. Boris/Trump/Leave have totally changed the game. Trump has more than 10,000 lies on record since he took office!

It’s not the most even handed publication but what they’ve written here is true and corroborated by lots of analysis including the Electoral Commission.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/vote-leave-director-admits-won-lied-public/08/02/

It clearly shows a large number of people almost believe what they want to be the truth, rather than what they know is the truth.

This seems to be where Remoaners have it so wrong. I have said it time and again, the numbers on the bus were irrelevant, it was the message of positivity that roped them in.

If Remoan has posted how much better things would be in the EU, it would have been no contest, but they couldn't have the bullshit positive factor as we have been in so long, rarely with any good news. That wasn't gonna wash...

must return to this

it is easier to sell change than defend the status quo to a voter base where the majority is disaffected

The Eu benefits, such as unfettered access to free market, crucial in a just in time world, and regeneration funds (spending money in what turned out to be disadvantaged leave areas) are a tough sell to an audience given feelgood soundbites

That disaffected population confused the effects of austerity with it being the EU at cause and at fault. Add in stagnant wage growth and in some people some harder line attitudes to immigration (because they see their communities changing, without realising the positive impact on economic growth because they don't see it themselves) and the desire for change becomes quite easy to tap into. It's difficult to counter populism when the change argument doesn't have to be thoroughly true in modern politics.


All that said, i think we all agree that Remain ran a dreadful campaign,that the way the referendum was phrased didn't pin vote leave down and is a root source of the problems we face now (everyone's preferred brexit is different) that we triggered A50 too early, that May's decision to call an election was precipitous and that election campaign that lost her majority was calamitous, and the need to coalesce with the DUP boxed our negotiators into another corner, that Corbyn has been a brexiteer and the opposition hasn't done its job very well and certainly hasn't been a remain party and all of this combined basically nixed reasonable prospects of an orderly brexit.


Right, back to work :-)

[MANTIS01]

Here’s the Barnier email to EU member states calling Boris’ statement “rather combative” and basically un-negotiable. (which it would be at this stage if Boris is going to do a pre-emptive election pinning it on remain /EU and gaming a parliamentary majority to get leverage to get them to deal )

Really illuminating and frankly indicative

Thought BoJo speech was open and honest, ready to talk with EU friends but sensible to prepare

Is that combative?

Now before Barnier hears what solutions Boris suggests and before he asks for any feedback from any members he tells everybody what to do

No sense of optimism no fresh opportunity and all rather combative really

[kukushkin88]

Here’s the Barnier email to EU member states calling Boris’ statement “rather combative” and basically un-negotiable. (which it would be at this stage if Boris is going to do a pre-emptive election pinning it on remain /EU and gaming a parliamentary majority to get leverage to get them to deal )

Really illuminating and frankly indicative

Thought BoJo speech was open and honest, ready to talk with EU friends but sensible to prepare

Is that combative?

Now before Barnier hears what solutions Boris suggests and before he asks for any feedback from any members he tells everybody what to do

No sense of optimism no fresh opportunity and all rather combative really

You seem to have your hopes pinned on Barnier (the EU) taking pity on us, I don’t see it happening.

[Woodsey]

lol Boris announces 20k more police officers and the facebook feed is still full of whiners, it’s completely impossible to satisfy the glass half empty types  

[kukushkin88]

lol Boris announces 20k more police officers and the facebook feed is still full of whiners, it’s completely impossible to satisfy the glass half empty types  

I’m liking Boris so far. Obviously some painful humiliations to come in Brussels but hard to argue with having tons of police. I don’t think there’s any doubt that austerity is the worst government policy this country has seen.

[Doobs]

lol Boris announces 20k more police officers and the facebook feed is still full of whiners, it’s completely impossible to satisfy the glass half empty types  

One person's glass is 1,000 lower, another's glass is 20,000 higher?

https://fullfact.org/crime/police-numbers/

 

[MANTIS01]

Here’s the Barnier email to EU member states calling Boris’ statement “rather combative” and basically un-negotiable. (which it would be at this stage if Boris is going to do a pre-emptive election pinning it on remain /EU and gaming a parliamentary majority to get leverage to get them to deal )

Really illuminating and frankly indicative

Thought BoJo speech was open and honest, ready to talk with EU friends but sensible to prepare

Is that combative?

Now before Barnier hears what solutions Boris suggests and before he asks for any feedback from any members he tells everybody what to do

No sense of optimism no fresh opportunity and all rather combative really

You seem to have your hopes pinned on Barnier (the EU) taking pity on us, I don’t see it happening.

I don’t have my hopes pinned on anything, let alone Barnier

I am making an observation about his dictatorial style. Which means quite the opposite of what you suggest

Can’t believe I’m wasting my time answering lolz

[kukushkin88]

Here’s the Barnier email to EU member states calling Boris’ statement “rather combative” and basically un-negotiable. (which it would be at this stage if Boris is going to do a pre-emptive election pinning it on remain /EU and gaming a parliamentary majority to get leverage to get them to deal )

Really illuminating and frankly indicative

Thought BoJo speech was open and honest, ready to talk with EU friends but sensible to prepare

Is that combative?

Now before Barnier hears what solutions Boris suggests and before he asks for any feedback from any members he tells everybody what to do

No sense of optimism no fresh opportunity and all rather combative really

You seem to have your hopes pinned on Barnier (the EU) taking pity on us, I don’t see it happening.

I don’t have my hopes pinned on anything, let alone Barnier

I am making an observation about his dictatorial style. Which means quite the opposite of what you suggest

Can’t believe I’m wasting my time answering lolz

I think he’s just reminding Boris that they hold all the cards, seems like a sound strategy at this point.

[MANTIS01]

The current WA has failed to get through 3 times

Boris says he cannot present it again and it’s obvious he cannot present it again

So Barnier saying he’s not changing the WA before any talks have started is a kinda terrible strategy for somebody professing to not want a no deal outcome.

Looks like Barnier is, shock, lying one way or another