The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Karabiner]

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.

Judging by the reaction to it from the audience on Question Time last night, I sense the latter is the more accurate of these two takes on the manifesto.  Ultimately I think people over-estimate the impact of manifesto launches in general, and very few of the people who vote will actually read any of them.

I'm intrigued as to whether the 'costings' in this one are as tenuous as the GE17 version, where they analysed a small proportion of their plans, and shunted everything else into 'capital spend'.  Given that the basic policy is 'if we don't like it, nationalise it' I suspect it will be more of the same.

There's some interesting analysis of Labour's wording around the referendum option they're offering, as to whether it would require a 'super-majority' of 65% for Remain to prevail.  Suggestions that this has come from a shadow cabinet source, and Barry Gardiner (who else) has said similar in previous interviews.  I haven't seen the question asked outright of anyone post-manifesto launch but I hope that someone asks it.  Anything other than a straight 'yes' in response would be telling.

Manifesto-wise, Labour's best hope is that the Tory manifesto launch is as disastrous as the last one.  It was that, rather than anything in the Labour one, that had the most telling impact on the GE17 election.

rightly or wrongly, the 2008-09 financial crash apparently still comes up on the doorstep when Labour and economics comes up.

Magic Grandpa's manifesto has the feel, which possibly may not be fair, of something that is playing to his core vote to shore up a position post election than something that will win a majority and win over the marginal voter

Yes its fully costed but a) raising those funds not easy (tax evasion etc) and b) the sums are eye-watering. 

One little-mentioned fact is that the full implementation of Labour's manifesto will only result in a similar outlay to what Germany spends on social services, which is by some distance the most in Europe.

[TightEnd]

 saw that today. Add on all the nationalisations on top!

[Doobs]

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.

Judging by the reaction to it from the audience on Question Time last night, I sense the latter is the more accurate of these two takes on the manifesto.  Ultimately I think people over-estimate the impact of manifesto launches in general, and very few of the people who vote will actually read any of them.

I'm intrigued as to whether the 'costings' in this one are as tenuous as the GE17 version, where they analysed a small proportion of their plans, and shunted everything else into 'capital spend'.  Given that the basic policy is 'if we don't like it, nationalise it' I suspect it will be more of the same.

There's some interesting analysis of Labour's wording around the referendum option they're offering, as to whether it would require a 'super-majority' of 65% for Remain to prevail.  Suggestions that this has come from a shadow cabinet source, and Barry Gardiner (who else) has said similar in previous interviews.  I haven't seen the question asked outright of anyone post-manifesto launch but I hope that someone asks it.  Anything other than a straight 'yes' in response would be telling.

Manifesto-wise, Labour's best hope is that the Tory manifesto launch is as disastrous as the last one.  It was that, rather than anything in the Labour one, that had the most telling impact on the GE17 election.

rightly or wrongly, the 2008-09 financial crash apparently still comes up on the doorstep when Labour and economics comes up.

Magic Grandpa's manifesto has the feel, which possibly may not be fair, of something that is playing to his core vote to shore up a position post election than something that will win a majority and win over the marginal voter

Yes its fully costed but a) raising those funds not easy (tax evasion etc) and b) the sums are eye-watering. 

One little-mentioned fact is that the full implementation of Labour's manifesto will only result in a similar outlay to what Germany spends on social services, which is by some distance the most in Europe.

Seems a dubious stat.  Others seem to spend more as a percentage of GDP,  so the some distance seems unlikely.  Germany has a bigger population than us, so should naturally spend more if the benefits were the same? 

[aaron1867]

I don't quite understand why people are so against potential nationalisations. Yes, they're going to cost money, but in a reported I read two days ago, it said they would get there money back within years. Not only that but broadband, gas and public transport need a kick up the ass.

I'm also happy to see an increase in health and social care. I don't know if any of you noticed this year, but a mother and father killed their kids in Sheffield in May and I live across the road from them. It has been a complete eye opener to see the complete and utter failure of social services in what could have prevented their horrific deaths.

Sure it's going to cost money. I get it.

But you know what? People matter.

[Karabiner]

saw that today. Add on all the nationalisations on top!

I could be wrong but I think the nationalizations were included.

Perhaps I should have said public services rather than social services.

[TightEnd]

The debate audience on bbc1 now is a bearpit. Jikes

[Sheriff Fatman]

I don't quite understand why people are so against potential nationalisations. Yes, they're going to cost money, but in a reported I read two days ago, it said they would get there money back within years. Not only that but broadband, gas and public transport need a kick up the ass.

I'm also happy to see an increase in health and social care. I don't know if any of you noticed this year, but a mother and father killed their kids in Sheffield in May and I live across the road from them. It has been a complete eye opener to see the complete and utter failure of social services in what could have prevented their horrific deaths.

Sure it's going to cost money. I get it.

But you know what? People matter.

Could be something to do with remembering how shit all these services were when they were previously nationalised.

Combine that with the prospect of them being run by a government which is under the control of Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne and McCluskey.

It really doesn't bear thinking about.

[Doobs]

saw that today. Add on all the nationalisations on top!

I could be wrong but I think the nationalizations were included.

Perhaps I should have said public services rather than social services.

https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm

I have found the above site, and can't think how they got that Germany was much higher than anyone else.  I put in some of the usual suspects for high state spending (Sweden, Norway and France FWIW), and they seem to outspend us on pretty much anything, but they seem to outspend Germany on pretty much anything too.   I put in % of GDP, but even dollars per capita doesn't make Germany stand out.

Don't get me started on Nationalisations paying for themselves in 7 years.   Sure they do if you make a bunch of unrealistic assumptions (though Rail could definitely work due to franchises been for a set period).

[aaron1867]

I don't quite understand why people are so against potential nationalisations. Yes, they're going to cost money, but in a reported I read two days ago, it said they would get there money back within years. Not only that but broadband, gas and public transport need a kick up the ass.

I'm also happy to see an increase in health and social care. I don't know if any of you noticed this year, but a mother and father killed their kids in Sheffield in May and I live across the road from them. It has been a complete eye opener to see the complete and utter failure of social services in what could have prevented their horrific deaths.

Sure it's going to cost money. I get it.

But you know what? People matter.

Could be something to do with remembering how shit all these services were when they were previously nationalised.

Combine that with the prospect of them being run by a government which is under the control of Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne and McCluskey.

It really doesn't bear thinking about.

Fair point, I’m not old enough to remember

[TightEnd]

Corbyn explicitly says he as PM would remain neutral in referendum between a basically soft Brexit, and Remain:

"I will adopt a neutral stance so I can credibly carry out the result"...

[RickBFA]

Got a feeling this question time audience could be rather challenging for Boris. Plenty of vocal Labour supporters there.

[nirvana]

Got a feeling this question time audience could be rather challenging for Boris. Plenty of vocal Labour supporters there.

Let's not worry. Get Brexit done. Dither and delay. Two referendums or a brave new world. How can it go wrong. Think he's gonna get savaged and if the audience is as pro Labour as it seems., Swinson gonna get slapped round a bit too

[nirvana]

I'm watching this about 20 mins behind - much more impressed with Fiona Bruce in this versus her normal chairing of QT.

And format so much better than the other day. Gave Corbyn a deece chance to get a vision across

[TightEnd]

Swindon getting mauled. Good audience. Boris could get hammered

[RickBFA]

Swindon getting mauled. Good audience. Boris could get hammered

Totally agree. Swinson and LD policies going down like a lead balloon.

The next 30 mins for Boris could be a big factor in this election.