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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180326 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #22170 on: November 24, 2019, 12:15:42 PM »

Labour has suddenly found another 58 Billion under the bed today.

 "we will get above 30% in the polls"...."we will get above.......

The pledge they absolutely have to make is to 45-65 year old straight white gammon - £100,000 each for betting beer and fags.

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« Reply #22171 on: November 24, 2019, 12:17:18 PM »

Actually, gammon should include women so nails, hair-dos and a lifetime membership to champneys should be included
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« Reply #22172 on: November 24, 2019, 12:28:11 PM »

Actually, gammon should include women so nails, hair-dos and a lifetime membership to champneys should be included

Don't forget Princess Diana Commemorative Remembrance Plates
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« Reply #22173 on: November 24, 2019, 12:40:04 PM »

Labour has suddenly found another 58 Billion under the bed today.

 "we will get above 30% in the polls"...."we will get above.......


I read something that helped me to visualise a billion.

A million seconds is 11 days, a billion seconds is 31 years.
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« Reply #22174 on: November 24, 2019, 01:04:08 PM »

Labour has suddenly found another 58 Billion under the bed today.

 "we will get above 30% in the polls"...."we will get above.......

As a person born in the 60s I struggle with women born in the 50s should get their pension 7 years earlier than I can.   Surely fairness dictates women born in the 60s get pensions from 60 too, because some of them weren't paying attention too?  and so on...  and surely those born recently are in more need of earlier pensions as they are less likely to get final salary pensions?

I assume they only ever got pensions earlier because of sexism, and not because of some great analysis of income inequality before pension age.   I am a bit more relaxed about women getting pensions longer through outliving me.
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« Reply #22175 on: November 24, 2019, 02:44:10 PM »

Labour has suddenly found another 58 Billion under the bed today.

 "we will get above 30% in the polls"...."we will get above.......

As a person born in the 60s I struggle with women born in the 50s should get their pension 7 years earlier than I can.   Surely fairness dictates women born in the 60s get pensions from 60 too, because some of them weren't paying attention too?  and so on...  and surely those born recently are in more need of earlier pensions as they are less likely to get final salary pensions?

I assume they only ever got pensions earlier because of sexism, and not because of some great analysis of income inequality before pension age.   I am a bit more relaxed about women getting pensions longer through outliving me.



I agree except that you know when you will get your pension and would probably suffer if you were told you had to wait another 5/6 years just before you retired.
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« Reply #22176 on: November 24, 2019, 03:07:17 PM »

Over or under? (via Paddy Power)

Con: 340.5 UNDER

Labour: 208.5 OVER

Lib Dem: 27.5 OVER

SNP: 47.5 OVER


I think the lack of general movement in the recent polling, and the consistent Tory lead, still underestimates the impact of tactical voting on the overall result, even though the polling companies have moved to polling on the specific candidates in a constituency.  I still don't see where the Tory gains are going to come from to give them the overall majority and the Lib Dem vote, in particular, will be heavily concentrated into the marginal seats where they'll make overall gains.

The Brexit Party withdrawals don't help the Tories make gains, but give them a better chance of retaining seats they hold.  They'll still lose seats to the SNP and Lib Dems.  The question is how many.  The Tories best chance of gains are the 3 way seats where Lab/LD split the remain vote and the Tories get in via the back door, but these are precisely the seats where there'll still be a Brexit Party candidate too, so their vote will also get marginalised.

Labour seem to have squeezed the Lib Dems a little in the polls, but not to the extent that suggests they'll make huge gains.  It might impact a small number of Lab/LD marginals, but not the LD/Tory ones.

The constituency polling is the most intriguing data, and seems to still confirm the above general picture.  Decided voters seem to be generally entrenched to their positions, so the campaign is doing little to influence that, and this makes general sense where the deciding factors for this are either Brexit or Corbyn related i.e. if you're voting Con/LD/Lab/BXP based on Brexit, then little will change your vote right now, other than you might have lost a BXP option in a Tory held seat.  Similarly if you're voting LD/Green because of issues with Corbyn/Labour then nothing is likely to make you switch back.

Based on my expectations before the campaign started, the only change I perceive so far is that I'd expect slightly fewer LD gains from the Tories than previously, meaning that the SNP result increasingly marks them as the likely kingmakers.  I suspect they'll reverse a lot of the previous losses from GE17 and get something close, but not quite, the almost clean sweep they had in GE15.  It will be intriguing to see if Swinson's seat comes under threat from this as her higher profile in the campaign seems to be having a negative impact on her personal popularity ratings.

A hung Parliament is the outcome I want from the election, and I still see it as more likely than a Tory majority for now.
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« Reply #22177 on: November 24, 2019, 03:11:17 PM »

Polls out today suggest Tories are up in the polls in Scotland. Not massively, but polling better than you'd expect. I still expect them to lose a lot of their seats, hence why I struggle to see where this majority is going to come from.

I did look at their target seats an compared to other parties, they have dozens and dozens of seats they can pick up where they are only 5,000 or less votes behind. That's where I assume people predict a majority, but the Brexit Party are still surely going to pick up votes from Tories? What's the average % of Tories going to Brexit Party? Are Labour leavers going to be able to vote Tory or just tick Brexit Party? I'd assume so. But then the spending Labour have announced might *still* keep those potential voters.

As for the Lib Dems their polling has dropped since the dreadful Jo Swinson became leader with her dreadful stop Brexit plan. Where are their votes going? Are the then Labour to Lib Dems now moving back because of her?

Also, I feel all this polling doesn't take into account number of young people allowed to vote now. 2 more years of people being allowed to vote. They do tend to be more switched on than older voters regarding tactical voters and tend to be remain party voters. Older voters are typically not interested in or even heard of tactical voting. If I told my Dad the only way to stop Tories was to vote green, he'd still vote Labour, even if his ex-wife was leader.

And looking at Labour policies, polling, Swinson response and other little bits, I wouldn't be happy with 1/3 on Lib Dem taking Sheffield Hallam. I'll be trying to vote Labour if I can vote there.
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« Reply #22178 on: November 24, 2019, 03:30:34 PM »

Labour has suddenly found another 58 Billion under the bed today.

 "we will get above 30% in the polls"...."we will get above.......

As a person born in the 60s I struggle with women born in the 50s should get their pension 7 years earlier than I can.   Surely fairness dictates women born in the 60s get pensions from 60 too, because some of them weren't paying attention too?  and so on...  and surely those born recently are in more need of earlier pensions as they are less likely to get final salary pensions?

I assume they only ever got pensions earlier because of sexism, and not because of some great analysis of income inequality before pension age.   I am a bit more relaxed about women getting pensions longer through outliving me.



I agree except that you know when you will get your pension and would probably suffer if you were told you had to wait another 5/6 years just before you retired.

It was announced over 20 years ago, not just before they retired.  My own pension was pushed from 65 to 67.   It was an inequality that should have been resolved a long time ago.   Barber vs GRE, which lead to company pension scheme equalisation, was nearly 30 years ago. 
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« Reply #22179 on: November 24, 2019, 04:14:47 PM »

Labour has suddenly found another 58 Billion under the bed today.

 "we will get above 30% in the polls"...."we will get above.......

As a person born in the 60s I struggle with women born in the 50s should get their pension 7 years earlier than I can.   Surely fairness dictates women born in the 60s get pensions from 60 too, because some of them weren't paying attention too?  and so on...  and surely those born recently are in more need of earlier pensions as they are less likely to get final salary pensions?

I assume they only ever got pensions earlier because of sexism, and not because of some great analysis of income inequality before pension age.   I am a bit more relaxed about women getting pensions longer through outliving me.



I agree except that you know when you will get your pension and would probably suffer if you were told you had to wait another 5/6 years just before you retired.

It was announced over 20 years ago, not just before they retired.  My own pension was pushed from 65 to 67.   It was an inequality that should have been resolved a long time ago.   Barber vs GRE, which lead to company pension scheme equalisation, was nearly 30 years ago. 


Oh I didn't realise they had 20 years notice.

What are they to be compensated for then?
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« Reply #22180 on: November 24, 2019, 04:36:01 PM »

Labour has suddenly found another 58 Billion under the bed today.

 "we will get above 30% in the polls"...."we will get above.......

As a person born in the 60s I struggle with women born in the 50s should get their pension 7 years earlier than I can.   Surely fairness dictates women born in the 60s get pensions from 60 too, because some of them weren't paying attention too?  and so on...  and surely those born recently are in more need of earlier pensions as they are less likely to get final salary pensions?

I assume they only ever got pensions earlier because of sexism, and not because of some great analysis of income inequality before pension age.   I am a bit more relaxed about women getting pensions longer through outliving me.



I agree except that you know when you will get your pension and would probably suffer if you were told you had to wait another 5/6 years just before you retired.

It was announced over 20 years ago, not just before they retired.  My own pension was pushed from 65 to 67.   It was an inequality that should have been resolved a long time ago.   Barber vs GRE, which lead to company pension scheme equalisation, was nearly 30 years ago. 


Oh I didn't realise they had 20 years notice.

What are they to be compensated for then?

Because they think it is a vote winner?

The alternative answer is that some of them say they didn't know.   As I said earlier, there are bound to be women now who don't realise their pension age is 65, and others who don't realise it is 67 or 68.   Where do we draw the line?   If people are in genuine hardship, the state benefit system should step in.  If the state isn't helping people in that position that is an issue with the benefit system, and the recent cuts, and not with state pensions. 

 I just don't think the state should be stepping in and compensating everybody in one particular age group and sex.   Around the same number of people born in the 70s will be destitute when 60 as people born in the 50s.  It will happen to many men as well as women and so on.  With the collapse in jobs for life and private sector final salary pensions, I don't think it will get better.  The reality is that much of this compensation will be paid by people who won't get to retire until their late 60s, and who are already on the hook for the excesses of the very generation who want this compensation.


   
   
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« Reply #22181 on: November 24, 2019, 05:02:01 PM »

Labour has suddenly found another 58 Billion under the bed today.

 "we will get above 30% in the polls"...."we will get above.......


I read something that helped me to visualise a billion.

A million seconds is 11 days, a billion seconds is 31 years.

A lot of 'chatter' around politics makes it clear that a lot (most?) people can't really conceptualise the difference between 10 million and 10 billion (or maybe even less).

When it comes to 'big' numbers a lot of people are 'confused', and it really makes a difference to how some people think about politics.
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« Reply #22182 on: November 24, 2019, 05:26:27 PM »

 for every pound the Conservatives are pledging to spend on the current budget by 2023/24, Labour will spend over £28.

 For every pound.

Astonishing.  difference between the two major parties
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« Reply #22183 on: November 24, 2019, 05:57:15 PM »

for every pound the Conservatives are pledging to spend on the current budget by 2023/24, Labour will spend over £28.

 For every pound.

Astonishing.  difference between the two major parties

Tories are relying on voters not finding the Labour spending plans credible.

Essentially, they've launched a manifesto which promises to restore things they've spent 9 years taking away, which is quite astonishing when you think about it.  It's a continuation of the "Britain Deserves Better" line they took earlier in the campaign, essentially referring to the last 9 years of their own government.

A potentially risky tactic, and one that would be unimaginable if Labour weren't being led into this GE by Corbyn.
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« Reply #22184 on: November 24, 2019, 07:54:28 PM »

for every pound the Conservatives are pledging to spend on the current budget by 2023/24, Labour will spend over £28.

 For every pound.

Astonishing.  difference between the two major parties

The thing is that the Tories have put people into Austerity and Labour are trying to pull people out from under the car. Labour's plan is costed too and economists don't say it'll bankrupt us.

I think I hheard on Sky News earlier that daily spending for Tories is £3bn and Labour £95bn.
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