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Cavey007
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« Reply #9630 on: June 08, 2017, 10:48:20 PM » |
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why are tories still odds on for overall majority? Is it because they had more seats than predicted in 2015?
The unreliability of the exit poll and the seats being "too close to call" I guess. |
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JohnCharver
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« Reply #9631 on: June 08, 2017, 10:53:19 PM » |
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why are tories still odds on for overall majority? Is it because they had more seats than predicted in 2015?
Very similar final total to 2015 and they creeped over then |
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Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
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Posts: 10064
Go Ducks!
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« Reply #9632 on: June 08, 2017, 10:55:54 PM » |
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I've seen on BBC, someone say this could lead to another election?
Anyone care to explain in what circumstances this could be a possibility?
Tories can't form a government that can get any important policies through which leads to chaos. Another election only way to get through as labour will be invited to form a government and they can't do it either. So solution is another election, happened in 1974 |
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Cf
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« Reply #9633 on: June 08, 2017, 10:57:43 PM » |
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why are tories still odds on for overall majority? Is it because they had more seats than predicted in 2015?
The unreliability of the exit poll and the seats being "too close to call" I guess. They could swing the other way though? |
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Blue text
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DaveShoelace
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« Reply #9634 on: June 08, 2017, 10:59:00 PM » |
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I've seen on BBC, someone say this could lead to another election?
Anyone care to explain in what circumstances this could be a possibility?
Tories can't form a government that can get any important policies through which leads to chaos. Another election only way to get through as labour will be invited to form a government and they can't do it either. So solution is another election, happened in 1974 How soon would another one be called? Please god don't say right away (though we would have Tighty back for it). |
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titaniumbean
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« Reply #9635 on: June 08, 2017, 10:59:42 PM » |
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nirvana
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« Reply #9636 on: June 08, 2017, 11:00:26 PM » |
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IMO where May got the advice to call a career risking election | Click to see full-size image. |
 You might have reasonably thought that hubris, smears and fear would have been shown to be counter productive during the Brexit campaign - such idiots |
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sola virtus nobilitat
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Doobs
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« Reply #9637 on: June 08, 2017, 11:01:08 PM » |
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Getting this in early. If that exit poll is only 1% out it could make a huge difference to the end result. It is going to be fractions of 1 per cent between where we are and a tory majority.
Taking this further, Labour must be a bet at 21/22 most seats. Must be too big, the Tories only need to lose another 25 seats to them from here? I've had a bet anyway. |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Woodsey
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« Reply #9638 on: June 08, 2017, 11:02:03 PM » |
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I've seen on BBC, someone say this could lead to another election?
Anyone care to explain in what circumstances this could be a possibility?
Tories can't form a government that can get any important policies through which leads to chaos. Another election only way to get through as labour will be invited to form a government and they can't do it either. So solution is another election, happened in 1974 How soon would another one be called? Please god don't say right away (though we would have Tighty back for it). Well probably something like 6-12 months of the Tories trying to get things done with nothing actually happening as they can't get votes through, they would then probably call another election, probably......but who knows for sure. |
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Cavey007
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« Reply #9639 on: June 08, 2017, 11:02:57 PM » |
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why are tories still odds on for overall majority? Is it because they had more seats than predicted in 2015?
The unreliability of the exit poll and the seats being "too close to call" I guess. They could swing the other way though? That's a fair point. My second point. Tory voters are inherently ashamed of themselves and don't tell people who they've voted for for fear of making themselves look like heartless money grabbing demons. |
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Doobs
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« Reply #9640 on: June 08, 2017, 11:03:39 PM » |
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Getting this in early. If that exit poll is only 1% out it could make a huge difference to the end result. It is going to be fractions of 1 per cent between where we are and a tory majority.
Taking this further, Labour must be a bet at 21/22 most seats. Must be too big, the Tories only need to lose another 25 seats to them from here? I've had a bet anyway. Increase in majority in Newcastle. Absolutely sure this is a good bet even if the price has moved a bit. |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Ledders
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« Reply #9641 on: June 08, 2017, 11:05:29 PM » |
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Turnout up v good for Labour too right?
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Doobs
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« Reply #9642 on: June 08, 2017, 11:07:45 PM » |
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Turnout up v good for Labour too right?
Yep, twitter was reporting queues in lots of labour seats. Obviously biassed though |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Cavey007
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« Reply #9643 on: June 08, 2017, 11:07:52 PM » |
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Turnout up v good for Labour too right?
I've read 5% increase on younger voters. That's definitely a good start for them |
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Cavey007
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« Reply #9644 on: June 08, 2017, 11:08:34 PM » |
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"Exit poll predicted 7 per cent swing to Labour, instead 2 per cent." No quite as promising
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