The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Labour position on Brexit could change 'if public opinion shifts', says Corbyn campaign chief: http://bit.ly/2h1vojs

[TightEnd]

Labour's tuition fees row could only be the start of a difficult summer, warns stephenkb

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/07/why-labours-tuition-fees-row-could-only-be-start-difficult-summer

[TightEnd]

Jeremy Corbyn faces growing trade union backlash over Brexit stance http://bit.ly/2eMXnmf

[TightEnd]

Government facing multi-million pound bill as Supreme Court rules employment tribunal fees unlawful http://bit.ly/2tYuMMH

[TightEnd]

"Admit it Brexiters, Brexit will impoverish Britain in pursuit of an empire delusion."

article by Matthew Parris

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/07/dear-leavebugs-its-time-to-admit-your-mistake/

[TightEnd]

Amazing. Now the Daily Express is running negative stories about the impact of Brexit

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/833396/brexit-eu-uk-finance-investor-London-Brussels-europe-Alberto-Gallo-european-union-corbyn/amp

[TightEnd]

""Remain to be a clear majority view in 2021" (not that it matters)

i have no idea what the figures on the y axis represent

anyone?

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Corbyn is personally fireproof, but his manifesto could be torched by the Brexit blaze, writes stephenkb

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/07/corbyn-personally-fireproof-his-manifesto-could-be-torched-brexit-blaze


refusing to put a link up to the Abbott newsnight interview!

[TightEnd]

Fresh Labour confusion as John McDonnell and Keir Starmer contradict Jeremy Corbyn on Brexit http://bit.ly/2uZRZmh

[TightEnd]

Hammond seeks two-phase Brexit deal with 'off the shelf' transition

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Michel Barnier warns Brexit talks could be delayed over divorce bill row http://bit.ly/2h5OWTN

[Woodsey]

""Remain to be a clear majority view in 2021" (not that it matters)

i have no idea what the figures on the y axis represent

anyone?

Click to see full-size image.

Voter numbers

[neeko]

""Remain to be a clear majority view in 2021" (not that it matters)

i have no idea what the figures on the y axis represent

anyone?

Click to see full-size image.

Voter numbers

Why did someone build a graph with an assumption of 2015 voter turnout (i.e. Less young voters) when the 2017 election demonstrated a different baseline.

[Doobs]

""Remain to be a clear majority view in 2021" (not that it matters)

i have no idea what the figures on the y axis represent

anyone?

Click to see full-size image.

Voter numbers

Why did someone build a graph with an assumption of 2015 voter turnout (i.e. Less young voters) when the 2017 election demonstrated a different baseline.

You have to make assumptions and this set is pretty much what I did when I made the same point a few months ago.  By the time this all goes through, mortality will have changed the result.

If you use 2017 youth vote and assume people don't switch stance on the EU, it may look biassed towards remain.

I think it is pretty likely that most people are for the EU already.  You probbably just need to assume that the young ones who didn't show up to vote would have voted in line with their peers. 

Would be fun if we go through 5 years of pain, eventually get out; then the majority want to go back in; so we have another referendum followed by 5 more years of pain trying to negotiate a way back in.

[Doobs]

""Remain to be a clear majority view in 2021" (not that it matters)

i have no idea what the figures on the y axis represent

anyone?

Click to see full-size image.

Voter numbers

Why did someone build a graph with an assumption of 2015 voter turnout (i.e. Less young voters) when the 2017 election demonstrated a different baseline.

You have to make assumptions and this set is pretty much what I did when I made the same point a few months ago.  By the time this all goes through, mortality will have changed the result.

If you use 2017 youth vote and assume people don't switch stance on the EU, it may look biassed towards remain.

I think it is pretty likely that most people are for the EU already.  You probbably just need to assume that the young ones who didn't show up to vote would have voted in line with their peers. 

Would be fun if we go through 5 years of pain, eventually get out; then the majority want to go back in; so we have another referendum followed by 5 more years of pain trying to negotiate a way back in.

Ha

Philip Hammond has just confirmed this is the master plan. "Transition must end by 2022".   Next we need to confirm that is the date of the next referendum.