The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[BigAdz]

evening all why didn't the cleverest of them all Adz say goodnight im sad

I haven't gone to bed yet.

Deforestation not the cleverest, but not as dumb as Kuku tries to imply.

Goodnight all.

Maybe I am

Not even sure what i wrote, but it wasn't that

[TightEnd]

There’s a majority to be had for Johnson and he, Cummings and Farage know it. Labour are being punished by Remainers for their tortuous Brexit equivocations.

How in practice this translates with Scotland, tory non no-dealers etc is obviously highly uncertain but interesting after a terrible Westminster week that the polls are good for boris

From YouGov
Con: 35% (-)
Lab: 21% (-4)
LD: 19% (+3)
Brexit: 12% (+1)
Greens: 7%

[TightEnd]

The ft is behind a paywall so I reproduce the charts

Binary outcomes in a really good analysis

If BorisJohnson takes half Farage vote & Remainers stay divided Cons win 366 seats/easy majority

If, instead, Labour & LibDems form alliance (stand down where other 1st/2nd), & Farage stays strong, Lab-led coalition & 2nd EURef on the table

https://t.co/u8S0ovRljY https://t.co/QMwHSsAJbA

[TightEnd]

This legal advice spells out in clear terms that Boris Johnson is not above the law. Parliament has passed  legislation requiring him to stop no deal at the end of October. He must implement it - or face the legal consequences.

Will he test it?

[TightEnd]

A fascinating analysis in the NYT. Lots of behind the s
Scenes details of this week

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/opinion/sunday/dominic-cummings-brexit.html

[RickBFA]

The ft is behind a paywall so I reproduce the charts

Binary outcomes in a really good analysis

If BorisJohnson takes half Farage vote & Remainers stay divided Cons win 366 seats/easy majority

If, instead, Labour & LibDems form alliance (stand down where other 1st/2nd), & Farage stays strong, Lab-led coalition & 2nd EURef on the table

https://t.co/u8S0ovRljY https://t.co/QMwHSsAJbA

Swinson has already said she doesn’t trust Corbyn to lead the country. Do you think she will hand him the keys to number 10 by not standing in significant numbers of constituencies?

Seems highly unlikely to me.

[TightEnd]

Cummings’ view is that SW1 is reading the situation wrong. He told SPADs last night, ‘Pundits focus on the bubble and they think Corbyn passing a bill for another delay is a victory, the public will not agree. SW1 rarely understands how the public think about such things...

He continued ‘remember how they all said Obama’s intervention in the referendum was a victory for No10. If we keep focus on the public we will find a way through’.


But challenge for the Tories is how to find a way to get out of Westminster and go to the country as the other side didn't fall into the trap

[MANTIS01]

They did fall for the trap. The trap was to show the public who’s causing further delay, who isn’t letting the electorate decide.

[TightEnd]

The ft is behind a paywall so I reproduce the charts

Binary outcomes in a really good analysis

If BorisJohnson takes half Farage vote & Remainers stay divided Cons win 366 seats/easy majority

If, instead, Labour & LibDems form alliance (stand down where other 1st/2nd), & Farage stays strong, Lab-led coalition & 2nd EURef on the table

https://t.co/u8S0ovRljY https://t.co/QMwHSsAJbA

Swinson has already said she doesn’t trust Corbyn to lead the country. Do you think she will hand him the keys to number 10 by not standing in significant numbers of constituencies?

Seems highly unlikely to me.

A tory majority has to overcome the probable loss of 17 Scottish seats, losses in remain area and any impact of expelling the one nation wing. After all 4m Conservative voters voted remain. In 2015 corbyn also campaigned well and polled better than forecasts the month before expected.

However the impact of a populist "We just want to leave" voting tide is clearly a real prospect. As is a Farage pact, so it's highly uncertain that any past trends apply.

Current betfair market is 60% hung. 33% tory majority and 7% Labour.

Fascinating to see how all these forces develop.

[TightEnd]

They did fall for the trap. The trap was to show the public who’s causing further delay, who isn’t letting the electorate decide.

Possibly but the legislation is to stop no deal, not to stop leaving with a deal.

Brexit party apart, and not all leavers are that end of opinion, what was the appetite for no deal away from Westminster?

Will find that out when we vote.

[nirvana]

Much as I'm against a second ref in principle - I'm really concerned that a GE at this time will reinforce even more strongly the divisions that exist in the country over something that was a non-issue for most voters 4 or 5 years ago.

Making a GE about a single issue may suit both major parties at the moment in their scramble to Govern but it seems a really bad idea. The electorate are not going to be presented with a serious choice around a raft of issues, instead, parties (particularly on the remain side but perhaps on the Brexit side too) will seek to gerrymander the result through various pacts - principle and conviction seems to have gone so far out the window that it's hard to imagine it climbing back in.

I can't imagine any GE outcome that would ensure a sensible Brexit approach across parliament. I have complete disdain for all MPs on the extreme remain side, Labour have been a huge disappointment to me since the 2017 election. The Tory approach of excluding the rest of parliament for a couple of years of the process to pander to their nutter wing has been a huge disappointment too. I don't think I want to vote for any of them in a GE, particularly if my choices have been manipulated in advance.

Reluctantly (for the nth time since this process began) I'm starting to think that a ref is the best way forward even if we've been manipulated into this view by the political classes.

[TightEnd]

Johnson would resign rather than sign the letter asking for a Brexit extension says Forsyth

https://t.co/B6kq9bpNsv

[MANTIS01]

They did fall for the trap. The trap was to show the public who’s causing further delay, who isn’t letting the electorate decide.

Possibly but the legislation is to stop no deal, not to stop leaving with a deal.

Brexit party apart, and not all leavers are that end of opinion, what was the appetite for no deal away from Westminster?

Will find that out when we vote.

The argument has been twisted to suggested support for No Deal...which is pure fantasy...and actually all the fuss shows how effective the strategy was working. We can’t forget that once exit date was set the default position was no deal so everything Boris has done was to agitate a deal. I’m confident the electorate appreciate that and not the opposition spin.

In fact the reason for spinning it like this is because the opposition have zero plausible alternatives to present. Let me ask for clarity...the exit date is set...the default position is leave...you don’t agree with forcing EU’s hand...so how do you get an improved/accepted deal by the exit date?

[MANTIS01]

Much as I'm against a second ref in principle - I'm really concerned that a GE at this time will reinforce even more strongly the divisions that exist in the country over something that was a non-issue for most voters 4 or 5 years ago.

Making a GE about a single issue may suit both major parties at the moment in their scramble to Govern but it seems a really bad idea. The electorate are not going to be presented with a serious choice around a raft of issues, instead, parties (particularly on the remain side but perhaps on the Brexit side too) will seek to gerrymander the result through various pacts - principle and conviction seems to have gone so far out the window that it's hard to imagine it climbing back in.

I can't imagine any GE outcome that would ensure a sensible Brexit approach across parliament. I have complete disdain for all MPs on the extreme remain side, Labour have been a huge disappointment to me since the 2017 election. The Tory approach of excluding the rest of parliament for a couple of years of the process to pander to their nutter wing has been a huge disappointment too. I don't think I want to vote for any of them in a GE, particularly if my choices have been manipulated in advance.

Reluctantly (for the nth time since this process began) I'm starting to think that a ref is the best way forward even if we've been manipulated into this view by the political classes.

I think all the value will be with the party who campaigns hard for domestic issues

The big advantage for Boris and defining his Brexit position so definitively at the start is he can leave Brexit behind on the campaign trail

The opposition will still be in Brexit fever mode and Boris is dishonest and shouts at his mrs

[TightEnd]

To do a deal now, I drop the red lines now that even with the DUP I am 40 seats away from a parliamentary majority, go for the softest Brexit possible (SM/CU) confident that it would pass through parliament comfortably