Strictly Come Dancing 2015 cleaning up at the bookies thread

[TightEnd]

Peter Andre gets the prime slot then. Rigged

[Tal]

Jamelia's surprising a few here.

Her feet are a bit sloppy and she lost her frame, but she did well. 23 ish?

I'm really not a fan of Tristan. He is one of the weaker pros.

[Tonji]

Peter Andre gets the prime slot then. Rigged

Indeed, anyone but him.

Rip him to shreds please Tal.

[Doobs]

Jamelia's surprising a few here.

Her feet are a bit sloppy and she lost her frame, but she did well. 23 ish?

Think the bet is fine.  20/1 would be a big bet.

[Tal]

Peter Andre gets the prime slot then. Rigged

Indeed, anyone but him.

Rip him to shreds please Tal.

Rumours he is crying a lot, apparently.

I expect him to start well but plateau over the course of the show.

[AndrewT]

Peter Andre appears to be turning into Joey Barton.

[Tal]

Good news and bad news, Tonji.

Good news: I hated it. Barely any cha cha in it.

Bad news: the judges will love it.

[Tal]

Best choreography of either episode.

He had NO HIPS! None! Watch this get 30.

Joke tilting.

[Tal]

Ha!

[Doobs]

Just got 30 odd Jamelia and 60 odd Ainsley on Betfair.  Last of the blind gamblers obv.

Jay is still 8.8 or so.  He looks a right clodhopper to me, but maybe I am biassed?

[Tal]

An hour long Friday It Takes Two?

Click to see full-size image.

Marvellous.

[Tal]

Week Two

We get to see how the ballroom dancers from last week cope with latin and vice versa. The path ahead becomes, hopefully, clearer.

Some interesting things on It Takes Two tonight. I have been looking at how tomorrow and Sunday might go. It's a bit of a finger in the air job but we can probably do this better than the bookies so whyever not. Format is combined judges' scores are ranked and given equal weight to the publc vote, two in the dance off and judges pick who walks (with Len getting the casting vote). 

So, what we want to establish is who the worst dancer this weekend will be that ends up doing the dance off.



These guys all look solid and decent enough. They will stay.

Here is the business end:



Carol is dancing with an umbrella. She won't be wowing the judges, else Pasha would be doing away with props. However, she will be at the bottom and getting votes from the BBC News crowd. She will avoid the dance off.

Jeremy is doing an American Smooth, which is absolutely horrible, because it's foxtrot timing (the hardest ballroom dance - no one else has to do a foxtrot week one/two) and has a lift to contend with. His frame is appalling and he won't score above 22, unless I've seen very misleading footage. But he will get votes. Having discussed it with betting counsel, 7/1 with Sky is certainly a standout price, with everyone else 11/2. I may be over thinking it but I'll give you my views anyway.

Supporting my logic that the others get votes, Iwan is the favourite to walk on Sunday. He is doing a cha cha. Ola does well with the latin choreography with her weaker partners. She knows what the public vote for (ahem), so I expect the wardrobe department will have spent a below-average amount of time on Ola and Iwan's outfits. Flesh everywhere. He will commit completely and he will get everyone going in the crowd. The judges will marmalise it but the public will want him to stay.

Anthony is still dancing with his shoulder strapped up. That's going to make his Waltz pretty bad up top but he will have big strides I suspect and if his footwork is competent, he should get 25, which means he won't have to worry. If he had got 21 last week, I would have considered him here, but I can't see him low enough to go.

Jamelia has been dancing in trainers, which I hate. I can't be doing with watching Tristan either. But she should get enough in her cha cha to stick around, coupled with a below average level of support from the public.

The remaining two have salsas. Kirsty has only had 11 hours of training this week. She struggled massively with her nerves having reportedly aced in rehearsal. A party dance for a girly girl may suit. I have a mild concern that she and Brendan haven't quite hit it off but I am keeping an open mind on that one. She is surely going to get some support from the dads and lads and who doesn't want Brendan to do well? Pins on display with a high hemmed dress, surely? (If not, that either means she isn't playing along or Brendan doesn't think her legs are very good in Latin). She's in danger for sure, though, unless she steps up. She has a fabulous looking jump into Brendan, scissoring her legs around him and being shown upside down. That's hugely brave in her first dance. She could go either way, but it's most likely something in the mid to low twenties.

That leaves Ainsley. His training footage from Wednesday showed him having the same footwork as his tango: walking like you'd walk to the shops.  He will shimmy and party and be a barrel of laughs but he could face criticism if his hips don't move. I can see people being disappointed, having had high expectations. Bruno says he brought the house down with his facial expressions, Craig loves Natalie's choreography, Darcey comments on his bottom and Len gets booed for picking out he didn't lead on the balls of his plates of meat (inevitable gag) once.

So, whilst the likelihood is one of the bottom three goes, if they all dodge the dance off, Ainsley v Kirsty could be a very interesting fight. If either goes up against one of the people further up (say because they dance ok but are bottom in the public vote), I think they go.

Against each other, it's a toss up, dependant on whether Kirsty's nerves hold up. Having the same dance as a comparator will be easier for the judges to be technical.

At 12/1 and 12/1, both are good prices. I probably prefer the bet on Ainsley, as Kirsty seems more likely to be saved by the public, but I don't think we need to do more than back both to leave. Don't go nuts. It's a gamble when we haven't seen them dance properly in both disciplines.

That's my take anyway.

Best of luck.

[tikay]

^^^^

That is some incredible read, Tal. Even Camel, who claims not yo watch SCD, will like that.

[Doobs]

I did manage to get a bit if shrapnel on Jeremy to go in the end. 

After a whole series of bad bets, I managed to get a decent price on Anita in the week.

Jamelia still drifting badly and you should be able to get close to 40/1. Think my first bet was 10/1...

Going well then

[FUN4FRASER]

Week Two

We get to see how the ballroom dancers from last week cope with latin and vice versa. The path ahead becomes, hopefully, clearer.

Some interesting things on It Takes Two tonight. I have been looking at how tomorrow and Sunday might go. It's a bit of a finger in the air job but we can probably do this better than the bookies so whyever not. Format is combined judges' scores are ranked and given equal weight to the publc vote, two in the dance off and judges pick who walks (with Len getting the casting vote). 

So, what we want to establish is who the worst dancer this weekend will be that ends up doing the dance off.



These guys all look solid and decent enough. They will stay.

Here is the business end:



Carol is dancing with an umbrella. She won't be wowing the judges, else Pasha would be doing away with props. However, she will be at the bottom and getting votes from the BBC News crowd. She will avoid the dance off.

Jeremy is doing an American Smooth, which is absolutely horrible, because it's foxtrot timing (the hardest ballroom dance - no one else has to do a foxtrot week one/two) and has a lift to contend with. His frame is appalling and he won't score above 22, unless I've seen very misleading footage. But he will get votes. Having discussed it with betting counsel, 7/1 with Sky is certainly a standout price, with everyone else 11/2. I may be over thinking it but I'll give you my views anyway.

Supporting my logic that the others get votes, Iwan is the favourite to walk on Sunday. He is doing a cha cha. Ola does well with the latin choreography with her weaker partners. She knows what the public vote for (ahem), so I expect the wardrobe department will have spent a below-average amount of time on Ola and Iwan's outfits. Flesh everywhere. He will commit completely and he will get everyone going in the crowd. The judges will marmalise it but the public will want him to stay.

Anthony is still dancing with his shoulder strapped up. That's going to make his Waltz pretty bad up top but he will have big strides I suspect and if his footwork is competent, he should get 25, which means he won't have to worry. If he had got 21 last week, I would have considered him here, but I can't see him low enough to go.

Jamelia has been dancing in trainers, which I hate. I can't be doing with watching Tristan either. But she should get enough in her cha cha to stick around, coupled with a below average level of support from the public.

The remaining two have salsas. Kirsty has only had 11 hours of training this week. She struggled massively with her nerves having reportedly aced in rehearsal. A party dance for a girly girl may suit. I have a mild concern that she and Brendan haven't quite hit it off but I am keeping an open mind on that one. She is surely going to get some support from the dads and lads and who doesn't want Brendan to do well? Pins on display with a high hemmed dress, surely? (If not, that either means she isn't playing along or Brendan doesn't think her legs are very good in Latin). She's in danger for sure, though, unless she steps up. She has a fabulous looking jump into Brendan, scissoring her legs around him and being shown upside down. That's hugely brave in her first dance. She could go either way, but it's most likely something in the mid to low twenties.

That leaves Ainsley. His training footage from Wednesday showed him having the same footwork as his tango: walking like you'd walk to the shops.  He will shimmy and party and be a barrel of laughs but he could face criticism if his hips don't move. I can see people being disappointed, having had high expectations. Bruno says he brought the house down with his facial expressions, Craig loves Natalie's choreography, Darcey comments on his bottom and Len gets booed for picking out he didn't lead on the balls of his plates of meat (inevitable gag) once.

So, whilst the likelihood is one of the bottom three goes, if they all dodge the dance off, Ainsley v Kirsty could be a very interesting fight. If either goes up against one of the people further up (say because they dance ok but are bottom in the public vote), I think they go.

Against each other, it's a toss up, dependant on whether Kirsty's nerves hold up. Having the same dance as a comparator will be easier for the judges to be technical.

At 12/1 and 12/1, both are good prices. I probably prefer the bet on Ainsley, as Kirsty seems more likely to be saved by the public, but I don't think we need to do more than back both to leave. Don't go nuts. It's a gamble when we haven't seen them dance properly in both disciplines.

That's my take anyway.

Best of luck.

Jesus what a write up

Wasted Talent