Joe Kennedy III’ s “Same Policies As You” Run Falls Short As Ed Markey Holds On To Senate SeatThe Senate Primary race between Joe Kennedy III and Ed Markey has finished with a clear victory for Markey. No Kennedy had ever lost a State-wide election in Massachusetts and many thought that Markey would be forced to accept that his time was up, as a younger, more glamorous politician took his place. But he fought back hard, demonstrating that he is far from a spent force. He is still at the forefront of current issues, eg he was a co-sponsor of Medicare for All and co-authored the Green New Deal with AOC. Joe III attempted to represent himself as being more liberal than Markey, which just didn’t fly. The truth is that there are almost no policy differences between them and III was just trying to make a premature jump from the House to the Senate before a posse of rivals came to the starting line. He is first in line, but it could be tough going by the time Ed retires voluntarily, as others are also making their mark in the State.
Markey has been has been low-key compared with Massachusetts’ heavyweight Senators (JFK, Ted Kennedy, Paul Tsongas, John Kerry, Liz Warren), but points to over 500 pieces of legislation with his name attached across 44 years in Congress (House 37, Senate 7). Kennedy has attacked him for not being active enough in the State and not helping Dem candidates around the country in the expected manner and has highlighted several perceived issues in Markey’s long record. What he hasn’t done is identify what he is offering that is different.
Joe’s team tried to paint Ed as old guard being overtaken by a new generation, but it’s just not true – Markey did well amongst younger voters, who set up numerous real and fake Twitter and Instagram accounts in support (eg twitter.com/hotgirls4markey, twitter.com/edmarkeymemes, twitter.com/whyisjoerunning). JKIII also spoke disapprovingly about the “insider system” which rang hollow, considering that his main pitch seemed to be that he deserved the seat because he is a Kennedy.
Many Massachusetts politicians were favourably disposed to both runners and just left them to fight it out. John Kerry, Deval Patrick and Congressman Seth Moulton declined to take sides, as did AOC’s fellow Squad member Ayanna Pressley. Markey has quoted Liz Warren’s endorsement, but that was given before Joe pitched in, and she has kept her head down since, being close to both. But Markey’s resistance won support, not just from Lefties like AOC, but he was endorsed by the Boston Globe and seven Senators (including Chuck Schumer), while Kennedy just had one (right-wing semi-Republican Krysten Sinema). Nancy Pelosi made a late stand for Joe, which should have helped in an in-Party vote, but a lot of people had already made their minds up by then that his challenge was opportunistic, while Ed was still delivering in the role.
Early polls showed Joe far ahead, but they turned around during the Summer and several in the final month gave it to Ed by double digits. In the end, Markey locked up a decisive 56%-44% result, spoiling a 26-0 Kennedy winning run.
Between them, these two spent over $20m on an apparently meaningless contest. Kennedy’s ads were well received, but they look very like the parody ads, throwing in lots of template buzzwords and images.
Markey’s seemed more relevant – AOC made a decent one for him and then he brought out one that some have described as one of the best ever. I’m not sure it’s as good as that (the start is a bit slow), but it is powerful, illustrating his relevance in the past and still now, and ends with a killer line, given the Kennedy connection.
So where does that leave things? The fallout from this internal fight is significant:
- Joe’s not going to the Senate just yet, and may never get there. He was the rising star who gave the party’s response to Trump’s State of the Union address, and seen as a future Presidential contender. He tried to avoid his father’s fate of waiting too long in the House, but went too soon instead. When Ed does eventually step down, there will be other strong contenders, which is why he tried to secure his place at this stage. Joe had to give up his House seat to try for the Senate, so he has no position in the immediate future. He could try to regain his seat as a write-in candidate in November, but it seems more likely that he’ll sit it out. If Warren is called to the Cabinet, there will be a special election for her Senate seat, but that will be hotly contested. The most likely way forward from here may be a role in Biden’s Administration, though probably not in the Cabinet.
- Challenging an incumbent from within the party has long been taboo in both parties but that has been weakening, with left-wing candidates overcoming a number of long-standing Democrat Congressmen. The Democrat establishment has historically supported incumbents financially, and this year stated that any consultants assisting challengers would be black-listed, which is more serious than it sounds. Pelosi’s endorsement of Kennedy seems to fly in the face of her previous stance, and Progressives are taking it as a green light to Primary all and sundry.
- Ed is a liberal, but he hasn’t been as Progressive in the past as his current associates. If they have captured him as an ally, it may be a forerunner of others to come. The Tea Party’s success wasn’t achieved just by introducing new right-wing challengers – it also managed to turn existing Republican members of Congressmen who feared being challenged in their Districts if they didn’t fall in line. Progressives would be pleased to have a similar effect.
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