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The Next President of the United States
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Topic: The Next President of the United States (Read 664692 times)
Marky147
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #645 on:
September 15, 2016, 05:23:10 PM »
Quote from: Pinchop73 on September 15, 2016, 04:19:46 PM
Yeah saw bits of the roast. She might be a bit of a tit, but she's imo correct in what she has written in the above piece.
Even though I do not agree with some things Sam believes (
), I do still enjoy listening to what he has to say. I think my fav interview of him is the following:
A lot of the stuff I've read by her just gave me the impression that she must be Katie Hopkins long lost twin.
I actually came across that when clicking around in youtube the other day, but had to close it, as I was miles behind with work
@Barry - I've got enough rabbit holes to keep me busy until next summer, and if I spend any more time on Youtube, the likeliest outcome would be my old man strangling me, lol.
«
Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 05:44:27 PM by Marky147
»
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TightEnd
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #646 on:
September 15, 2016, 05:37:54 PM »
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's still a lot of denial among Democrats about how tight the race has become, despite abundant evidence from high-quality polls.
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
DaveShoelace
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #647 on:
September 15, 2016, 05:47:45 PM »
I've seen loads of polls that had Trump ahead or close for the last 2-3 months, but its only this week that they have been making big stories about it on the news sites. Hard to tell which ones to believe but Nate Silver has always been one of the better folks in that regard imo.
The betting odds have not shifted all that much though.
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Marky147
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #648 on:
September 15, 2016, 05:50:37 PM »
Quote from: DaveShoelace on September 15, 2016, 05:47:45 PM
I've seen loads of polls that had Trump ahead or close for the last 2-3 months, but its only this week that they have been making big stories about it on the news sites. Hard to tell which ones to believe but Nate Silver has always been one of the better folks in that regard imo.
The betting odds have not shifted all that much though.
They've come in a fair bit in the last few weeks, as Trump has gone from >7/2 - ~7/4
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DaveShoelace
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #649 on:
September 15, 2016, 05:53:12 PM »
Does the health thing with Hillary actually change anything? This is a rare election in that if we were being honest the yanks are voting for 'Not Trump' or 'Not Hillary' for the most part. I can't see any health scare make anyone think 'the poor woman wont be able to do the job, I better vote for someone with vastly different policies'.
IMO the only people it could shift are the ones who were on the fence about whether Hillary was an honest person or not and voting based on that.
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MintTrav
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #650 on:
September 15, 2016, 07:56:03 PM »
The national polls are irrelevant (other than being indicators of the trend). Okay, Clinton's big lead has been eroded (though one published at the weekend showed her back to 5% ahead). But national polls include all the States that are certain to vote one way or the other and piling up votes in States you always win doesn't help you win the election.
It's all decided by winning individual States on a winner-takes-all basis. So piling up support in safe States or chasing lost causes is a waste of resources. All the attention is on the dozen-or-so swing States. And Clinton has been holding her ground in most of those until now.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/09/04/trump_is_closing_the_gap_in_national_polls_but_clinton_holds_battleground.html
Assuming Clinton holds on to Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado and Pennsylvania, which she probably will, that leaves New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa in the balance. Trump's problem is that he has to win all of them. Losing just one of those six States means he loses the election. Clinton has numerous ways she can win, whereas he only has one. At last, he seems to be doing well in some of the key States and, apparently, is now ahead in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. He is still behind, though, in North Carolina and New Hampshire, with Nevada wavering.
But it's worse than that for Trump. He has been having trouble in Republican bankers like Georgia and Arizona, and even Texas, where a lot of Republicans may stay home. He is back on course to hold all of those, but having to campaign there at all is an embarrassment, and the staff pulled back to defend those States weren't spending that time making inroads in North Carolina or New Hampshire.
All-in-all, it's still Clinton's to lose. It is likely to take a significant event for her not to win. A health issue or scandal involving her or Bill could do it. The FBI will be releasing emails and Wikileaks has some disclosures planned (probably timed for just before the third debate for max impact). A major screw-up in the debates is the other possibility. With little now to lose, Trump may go high-variance, resulting in either one of them coming across terribly. Unless there is something exceptional, though, it's hard to see how Trump gets there.
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DaveShoelace
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #651 on:
September 15, 2016, 08:11:04 PM »
Quote from: MintTrav on September 15, 2016, 07:56:03 PM
All-in-all, it's still Clinton's to lose. It is likely to take a significant event for her not to win. A health issue or scandal involving her or Bill could do it. The FBI will be releasing emails and Wikileaks has some disclosures planned (probably timed for just before the third debate for max impact). A major screw-up in the debates is the other possibility. With little now to lose, Trump may go high-variance, resulting in either one of them coming across terribly. Unless there is something exceptional, though, it's hard to see how Trump gets there.
With almost eight weeks to go and it being the bat shit crazy year that has been 2016, I expect we'll see about 14 of these 'black swan' events.
A much as I loath the idea of either of those two becoming the most powerful person on the planet, fuck me those debates are going to be entertaining.
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DMorgan
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #652 on:
September 15, 2016, 08:21:40 PM »
Quote from: Marky147 on September 15, 2016, 03:49:54 PM
My personal favourite if you are into his stuff on Jihad/theocracy/politics is this one
The rant at 28 mins is top class
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
MintTrav
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #653 on:
September 16, 2016, 01:28:06 AM »
Cruz: “If Something Happens To Hillary, I Agree To Run As A Democrat Against Trump”
http://www.usanewsinsider.com/cruz-something-happens-hillary-agree-run-democrat-trump/
(fake story)
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Marky147
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #654 on:
September 16, 2016, 01:35:43 AM »
Quote from: MintTrav on September 16, 2016, 01:28:06 AM
Cruz: “If Something Happens To Hillary, I Agree To Run As A Democrat Against Trump”
http://www.usanewsinsider.com/cruz-something-happens-hillary-agree-run-democrat-trump/
(fake story)
But I'm sure that his mum is praying for Hillary everyday, sometimes for hours.
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MintTrav
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #655 on:
September 16, 2016, 01:51:25 AM »
Ben Carson demonstrates once again how we have missed out by not having him as President:
Reminds me of the time he left the campaign to go home to Florida to change his clothes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/01/ben-carsons-amazing-excuse-for-taking-a-break-from-the-campaign-trail-he-needs-fresh-clothes/
He would have been great as President.
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Marky147
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Re: The Next President of the United States
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Reply #656 on:
September 16, 2016, 03:07:45 AM »
Haha, like some kind of sketch.
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bergeroo
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Re: The Next President of the United States
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Reply #657 on:
September 16, 2016, 09:13:23 AM »
Even money bet that Trump will or won't say the phrase 'Crooked Hillary' during the first debate. Which side would you take?
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DaveShoelace
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #658 on:
September 16, 2016, 09:40:24 AM »
Quote from: bergeroo on September 16, 2016, 09:13:23 AM
Even money bet that Trump will or won't say the phrase 'Crooked Hillary' during the first debate. Which side would you take?
Jesus that's a good question, part of me thinks why the hell wouldn't he, gotta give him his dues the nicknames he gives people do stick. On the other hand he has shown a slightly more balanced side and probably will make more of the illness thing.
My gut says he wont.
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DMorgan
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Re: The Next President of the United States
«
Reply #659 on:
September 16, 2016, 10:59:31 AM »
I'd take No
Its easy to fire those kind of shots when you're not in the same room and your opponents only right of reply is through a press release or a speech made hours later, but on the same stage Hilary can fire straight back about the hundreds of court rulings against him. My hunch is that now that she has the green light from the FBI over the emails she can go ahead and bring up The Donalds court record whereas before it was too risky to do so in case she she ended up being made to stand trial.
I'd expect to see something in the vain of Camerons 'calm down dear' and a jibe about whether she is feeling overheated
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
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