The Next President of the United States

[Marky147]

Down the Rogan rabbithole we go...



Joey Diaz should run in 2020, as he surely can't be any more out of place than Trump & Johnson are now

[MintTrav]

This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

[DaveShoelace]

This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?

[MintTrav]

This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?

Both. I think he would have a better chance, but I think he would be much worse - not in terms of competency (clearly he is far more competent), but his beliefs and his track-record as Governor.

[DaveShoelace]

This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?

Both. I think he would have a better chance, but I think he would be much worse - not in terms of competency (clearly he is far more competent), but his beliefs and his track-record as Governor.

Could you give cliffs on the top 2-3 concerns? I don't know much about him other he is anti-online poker.

[neeko]

As I understand us politics, the congress is in republican hands for a long time as they have gerrymandered the seats to the point where they can't actually lose. This leaves the senate, presidency and Supreme Court as the restraining influence.

The senate is in play this time as a lot of republican seats are up for reelection and not many dem ones, (6 years cycle), especially if with trump as the nominee Republican votors may not t turn up to vote.

A dem senate and president could fix the Supreme Court for the next generation as democratic leaning and mean that the 2020 result does not matter so much.

Given the mess of the EU and brexit, boring status quo in the US for a few years would be good for the world.

[The Camel]

This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

I was wondering the exact same thing.

Why release that tape now? Why not wait until 2 days before the election?

Some jiggery pokery going on I'll be bound.

[MintTrav]

The Trump campaign has pulled advertising from several battleground States, booked weeks ago. This happened before the latest revelations. The suspicion is that they are short of funds, or Trump has given up on winning and wants to save the money, maybe to pay back loans he has given to the campaign or pay any left-over excess to charity (Trump Foundation?).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-ad-reservations_us_57f7e122e4b0e655eab3dfde?

[MintTrav]

Why release that tape now? Why not wait until 2 days before the election?

Some jiggery pokery going on I'll be bound.

Don't know exactly why now. S'pose any date is matter of judgement. Could be to allow the backlash to build up and fester. Could be that there are more things to drip-feed over the next few weeks. Could be to coincide with the Town Hall - it's always better for someone else (especially a normal voter) to bring up the dirt than the candidate.

My guess would be it's because early voting has just started (and Clinton is crushing so far by way more than expected). Some of the swing States could be wrapped up before 8 Nov.

[MintTrav]

Thought I'd update the table of polls in the swing states, to see how they have moved since before the debates started. The polls weren't held on the dates shown - they are the most recent ones showing on RealClearPolitics on those dates. Some States don't have great differences in the results of different polling groups, but some States have got large differences. The most recent polls could be exceptions, but I didn't want to make it complicated.

Having said that, there is a clear trend. Clinton seems to have strengthened her grip on all the Swing States that were in her column. Trump had the lead in most of the States that he needs to win, and now he doesn't - there has been movement from to Clinton in almost all of them. There may be exceptions and outliers, and up to 3% may not be statistically significant, but they can't all be wrong. Trump needs something dramatic to happen to turn it around, as he needs to win all the States in the bottom group. He is only a couple of points behind in almost all of them, but the trend is in the wrong direction across the board. I think he'll take Georgia and Arizona, but the rest could go either way. Those two would get him to 191 College Votes. His most likely result is probably around 220. 270 seems impossible unless Clinton assaults someone. Worst case scenario could be not breaking 200.

One other caveat is that Reuters (not listed on RealClearPolitics) published polls on 5 Oct, showing Trump ahead in Colorado (2%), Iowa (7%), Nevada (2%), and Georgia (13%), with Michigan and Wisconsin tied. It is clearly doing something quite different to other pollsters, as its results are all much more Trump-friendly than the others. Also, its results seem to be the combined results on polling over the last 3-4 weeks all published together, so may be out-of-date (though the other polls have never reported those numbers). Two separate polls have reported Clinton with a startling 11% lead in Colorado, so Reuters may be on the wrong track.

	College Votes	% Lead
	Trump      Clinton	21 Sep                 7 Oct
Locked-up States	164            197

Swing States

In the Bag for Clinton:

Michigan		16	Clinton+4	Clinton+11
Pennsylvania		20	Clinton+9	Clinton+9
Virginia		13	Clinton+3	Clinton+7
Wisconsin		10	Clinton+2	Clinton+7
New Hampshire		4	Clinton+9	Clinton+2

Trump Needs to Win:

Colorado	9		Trump+4	Clinton+11
Maine	1	3	Clinton+2	Clinton+3
Arizona	11		Trump+1	Clinton+2
North Carolina	15		Tie	Clinton+2
Ohio	18		Trump+3	Clinton+1
Nevada	6		Trump+3	Tie
Iowa	6		Trump+8	Tie
Florida	29		Clinton+5	Trump+1
Georgia	16		Trump+3	Trump+4

Total                                              275           263

[TightEnd]

The Trump women learned long ago how to protect their privates parts when Trump is around them.

[TightEnd]

the effect on the odds

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[DaveShoelace]

The debate tonight might be the television event of the decade.

Meanwhile Gary Johnson weighs in

[DMorgan]

rofl Barry wins the thread, wpwp