The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

My main impression of these debates is that there isn't enough time to discuss any of the issues in enough detail. It would be much more satisfying to see each of them put through a long tough interview where they could be pinned down and pressed longer on the issues they should be giving proper answers on. I'd be quite happy to give up one of the debates for that.

She only needed to tie (though imo she won). He needed to score heavily, but never landed the hits he really needed. He also needed to offer something to Independents and disaffected Republicans, but didn't really display anything to attract people who were not already voting for him.

[TightEnd]

interesting, and brexit parallels

A new split bwn those benefiting from globalisation & the culturally/econ. 'left behind'. Nate Cohn for NYT

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/upshot/the-new-blue-and-red-educational-split-is-replacing-the-culture-war.html?_r=0

[TightEnd]

The traps Clinton set last night

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/19/13340828/hillary-clinton-debate-trump-won

[MANTIS01]

Clinton handled herself well and her diction is more credible for sure. It's just every time I see her walk on stage I find myself questioning her physicality. That episode where she was held up by aides before collapsing into the car seems indicative of Clinton generally and her whole campaign. But I guess the aides will now carry her across the line...kinda like Derek Redmond's dad in the olympics. And that's the thing, I've considered all the issues and the content of the debates but deep down all I want to see is Clinton run the 400m. I mean it doesn't need to be quick but get yourself down the track love and run 400m because I don't think you can.

Perhaps it's because the intellect of the candidates isn't so great that physical is playing a part in my mind. Or perhaps I just don't care enough but I guess my stupid opinion is why the electorate isn't taken seriously these days. Even so I still wanna see that 400m. I mean Putin is all bare-chested and wrestling bears in the woods which must inspire confidence in his people. Petty as it might be image is always paramount for voters cos we are human beings like.

[RED-DOG]

Clinton in the woods, bare chested, wrasseling a bear?

I missed the debate but I'd stay up until 2am to see that.

[hector62]

I think they should have a 100m race, followed by a live IQ test.

[DropTheHammer]

MintTrav thanks for all these updates and info-it really is appreciated and I find lots of it fascinating. Loved the info about Trump ripping off his donors! Quell Surprise.

[DropTheHammer]

And lol @ Trump claiming it will be rigged. That's what the Brexiteers thought! Do we think he honestly believes this, or is it some attempt at psychology to get more of his lot to actually vote?

[TightEnd]

How the 2016 US Presidential odds looked the day after Obama won in 2012:

5 Clinton
10 Rubio
12 Ryan
16 Biden
16 Bush
100 Trump
500 Sanders

[MintTrav]

Hillary has been stretching her lead, from 4-5 points last week to 6-8 points in the last couple of days. Yesterday, Bloomberg published a poll showing her now 9 points ahead. Even more significantly, for the first time, it showed her ahead with men and with voters without a college degree, two groups that Trump had locked up til now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-19/national-poll

[MintTrav]

Trump is 87% certain to win

On the other hand, Farage was doing the rounds yesterday, telling journalists that Trump and Brexit are the same thing (as Trump himself has been saying a lot lately), and that the polls mean squat because Brexit was -10% on the day, but won by 4%.

This guy sets out very well the reasons why polls are often wrong - http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/301220-you-cant-trust-polls-clintons-winning-but-our-polling-methods-are

He says that the polls are 'bunk'. "The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts."

His forecast is based on Primary results, and he says that his model forecasts the correct outcome for every election from 1912 to 2012, except for 1960. His forecast for 2016? Donald Trump is at least 87% certain to beat Hillary Clinton. You heard it here first.

http://primarymodel.com/

[Rexas]

It worries me tremendously how the media seem to be behaving like Clinton has already won. Surefire way to stick a curve ball in.

[DaveShoelace]

On the other hand, Farage was doing the rounds yesterday, telling journalists that Trump and Brexit are the same thing (as Trump himself has been saying a lot lately), and that the polls mean squat because Brexit was -10% on the day, but won by 4%.

I'm pretty clueless with what makes a good poll but I largely agree with this, America are way more populist than us, if we can vote for Brexit, they certainly still can vote for Trump. I'm a little less confident since 'Grab the pussy-gate' but he seems to have weathered the storm a little. IMO anyone voting for Trump before the debates probably still is, he just hasn't converted any undecideds.

@Mint - what's your take on that? do you think Trump has managed to deflect a bit of 'Grab the pussy-gate' and the other allegations? I think any other candidate we would still be talking about it, but everyone is talking about other Trumpy stuff now.

[MintTrav]

On the other hand, Farage was doing the rounds yesterday, telling journalists that Trump and Brexit are the same thing (as Trump himself has been saying a lot lately), and that the polls mean squat because Brexit was -10% on the day, but won by 4%.

I'm pretty clueless with what makes a good poll but I largely agree with this, America are way more populist than us, if we can vote for Brexit, they certainly still can vote for Trump. I'm a little less confident since 'Grab the pussy-gate' but he seems to have weathered the storm a little. IMO anyone voting for Trump before the debates probably still is, he just hasn't converted any undecideds.

@Mint - what's your take on that? do you think Trump has managed to deflect a bit of 'Grab the pussy-gate' and the other allegations? I think any other candidate we would still be talking about it, but everyone is talking about other Trumpy stuff now.

I think the bit I've highlighted is spot on. He lost some votes from reluctant Republican supporters, but his core support won't be affected.

I couldn't really understand why people supported Trump until I read some comments the other day, where a Trump supporter explained that they don't care about the issues that people raise about him.

They don't care that he is petulant, a boor or a habitual liar. They don't care how rude he is, whether he makes lewd remarks or how childishly he behaves. They don't care whether he bullies his employees or other people, whether he stiffs contractors or pays tax. They don't care whether he might be racist, how he regards or treats women or any of the other isms that have been directed at him. They are not necessarily racist, etc themselves, but they don't care whether he is or not. They don't care whether he was for or against the Iraq War. They don't care much about what happens in the Middle East, nor about resultant refugees.

They do care about the economy, immigration, security, their own taxes and healthcare. They perceive that there are problems in those areas and they believe that Trump will address them.

Where he has lost out is with Independents and moderate Republicans, who could have been persuaded to hold their nose and vote for him, but he never gave them enough reasons to do so.

I think it's a shame that the women thing has drowned out the real issues lately, maybe even secured the election. I agree with Trump's supporters to the extent that how nice or unpleasant a person someone is doesn't affect whether they make good decisions on the economy, security, foreign affairs, etc.

[Doobs]

On the other hand, Farage was doing the rounds yesterday, telling journalists that Trump and Brexit are the same thing (as Trump himself has been saying a lot lately), and that the polls mean squat because Brexit was -10% on the day, but won by 4%.

I'm pretty clueless with what makes a good poll but I largely agree with this, America are way more populist than us, if we can vote for Brexit, they certainly still can vote for Trump. I'm a little less confident since 'Grab the pussy-gate' but he seems to have weathered the storm a little. IMO anyone voting for Trump before the debates probably still is, he just hasn't converted any undecideds.

@Mint - what's your take on that? do you think Trump has managed to deflect a bit of 'Grab the pussy-gate' and the other allegations? I think any other candidate we would still be talking about it, but everyone is talking about other Trumpy stuff now.

I don't think Farage is telling the truth here (and boy has he got form). There were several polls that had Brexit as the winner.  They were trending that way throughout the campaign too.  The only blip was right after Jo Cox's death.  And they were swinging back towards the Brexiteers from there to polling day.  

I am not saying that polls are always accurate, but nor are they often very far out.  Seems absurd to point to a 87% chance if a Trump success.  I wouldn't put anyone off the bet though, as the Hillary support draws heavily from the non voting classes.