The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

The Supreme Court is finally going to hear arguments tomorrow on whether President Trump can block the release of his financial records. There are two cases - the first concerns subpoenas from House Committees, and the second a subpoena from the Manhattan District Attorney.

The House Oversight and Reform Committee is investigating payments to Stormy Daniels and whether Trump over- or under-stated his assets to obtain loans and reduce his taxes. The House Financial Services and Intelligence Committees are looking at several issues and want to see various financial records relating to Trump, his companies and his family. Trump’s lawyers say the committees have no legitimate need for the information.

The Manhattan D A is also investigating payments to Stormy Daniels and wants eight years' business and personal tax records for Trump and The Trump Organisation. Donald’s lawyers say that he is immune from criminal investigation while he is in office and allowing subpoenas against sitting Presidents would leave them open to politically-motivated harassment.

The Justice Department is also involved, supporting the President, but separate to Trump's personal lawyers.

Trump has lost at District Court and Court of Appeal, and this is his last chance to keep his records private. Many believe that the decision will split on political lines, ie a 5-4 win for the President.

The Supreme Court has recently started hearing oral argument by teleconference and you can listen to it live - https://t.co/RR73oeC8eW?amp=1

It starts at 10am ET (3pm here).

[bookiebasher]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/11/opinions/trump-tax-returns-supreme-court-stakes-honig/index.html

If he wins it basically means there is no oversight/legal recourse to anything he does.

You might as well proclaim him King Donald.

He would love that.

I hope this is the beginning of the end for Teflon Don.

[MintTrav]

The Supreme Court submissions were interesting. Everyone was participating remotely, which mainly went well, though there was the obligatory incident of one of the Justices not answering when called on, and being passed over.

The arguments on both sides were well rehearsed, even having a feeling of going through the motions. It was strange from a non-US viewpoint to hear the Justices forming questions that were clearly slanted for or against the side they were questioning, much like what happens in Congress, even including gotcha questions on points of law, which the lawyers weren’t always able to answer. They weren’t all like that, though. To my untrained ear, Kavanaugh seemed to be giving a fair shake to the anti-Trump side.

The Onion told us that Justice Elena Kagan muted her microphone so she could wash dishes while listening to the arguments.

Click to see full-size image.

Split decisions are likely, but not entirely along expected lines. On the face of it, it appears that the Supreme Court is likely to rule against the House Committees getting the records, but in favour of the Manhattan District Attorney. Decisions are expected at the end of June or early July. However, they may send the Manhattan case back to the lower courts for clarifications, which would suit Trump, as the SCOTUS decision would then not be released until well after the Presidential election.

[MintTrav]

The Manhattan District Attorney has a famous name, that some may recognise - Cyrus Vance. The case is titled Trump v Vance. His father, also Cyrus, was Jimmy Carter’s Secretary of State and held senior roles in the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations.

Vance Snr was continually at loggerheads with his supposed colleague, Zbigniew Brzezinski, with Carter unable to resolve the conflict. Vance regarded Brzezinski, who was born in Poland, as excessively belligerent towards Russia. Vance advised the Shah of Iran to accede to some of the population's demands, while Brzezinski simultaneously told him to clamp down and crush the rebellion. The Shah wanted a clear instruction, but Carter couldn’t decide between the opposing views and, in the end, the Shah abandoned the country and scarpered. Vance eventually resigned on principle in the final year, due to Carter coming down on Brzezinski's side and agreeing to the disastrous attempt to rescue the US hostages in Iran.

Click to see full-size image.

Carter was always stuck in the middle between the voices in each ear.

[MintTrav]

23% of Nebraska Democrats Vote For Candidates Who Have Withdrawn

The Nebraska Primary has gone ahead and Joe Biden has emerged victorious. Against all the odds, he has accumulated an impressive 77% of the votes against three other candidates who had already withdrawn.

Full result:
119,135  (77%)  Joe Biden
  20,921  (14%)  Bernie Sanders
    9,534  (  6%)  Elizabeth Warren
    4,321  (  3%)  Tulsi Gabbard

So, despite Joe being the only candidate, almost a quarter of Democrats voted for someone else. But it’s winner-take-all, so he gets all 29 delegates.

Although everyone else has dropped out and endorsed him, Biden is still well short of the delegates required. This gets him to 1,464 of the 1,991 target. There are still people hoping for (and trying to organise) a brokered Convention, but it’s unthinkable that the party wouldn’t stick with him unless there is a full-blown scandal or his health fails. In those cases, he would have to withdraw anyway, even if he had the delegates. 

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

In-person voting was light, with most people voting by post.

[Marky147]

Is it ominous that nearly 1/4 of voters basically spoil their ballot?

The Manhattan District Attorney has a famous name, that some may recognise - Cyrus Vance. The case is titled Trump v Vance. His father, also Cyrus, was Jimmy Carter’s Secretary of State and held senior roles in the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations.

Vance Snr was continually at loggerheads with his supposed colleague, Zbigniew Brzezinski, with Carter unable to resolve the conflict. Vance regarded Brzezinski, who was born in Poland, as excessively belligerent towards Russia. Vance advised the Shah of Iran to accede to some of the population's demands, while Brzezinski simultaneously told him to clamp down and crush the rebellion. The Shah wanted a clear instruction, but Carter couldn’t decide between the opposing views and, in the end, the Shah abandoned the country and scarpered. Vance eventually resigned on principle in the final year, due to Carter coming down on Brzezinski's side and agreeing to the disastrous attempt to rescue the US hostages in Iran.

Carter was always stuck in the middle between the voices in each ear.

Thought I recognised the name, so quick look and he is Mika's father. 

Sometimes watch that when I'm in Vegas, and can't sleep.

[Marky147]

Click to see full-size image.

At least they've managed to get Space Force sorted.

[Marky147]

We had some funky missiles when I was doing EW training at Dryad, but wonder what the callsign will be for 'Super Duper'

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1261371131929325569

That whole thread is gold, and Miss McEnany should be commended for managing to keep a straight face in these conferences. Fair play.

[Karabiner]

We had some funky missiles when I was doing EW training at Dryad, but wonder what the callsign will be for 'Super Duper'

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1261371131929325569

That whole thread is gold, and Miss McEnany should be commended for managing to keep a straight face in these conferences. Fair play.

He's clearly a "trekky" too as the new vaccine is being developed at "warp-speed".

[Marky147]

Hopefully he's right!

Not followed too closely, but he looks to have been double busy on Twitter this week.

[MintTrav]

We had some funky missiles when I was doing EW training at Dryad, but wonder what the callsign will be for 'Super Duper'

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1261371131929325569

That whole thread is gold, and Miss McEnany should be commended for managing to keep a straight face in these conferences. Fair play.

So much good stuff in that thread.

[MintTrav]

Senate Insider Trading

It's been a while since we've had a proper financial scandal in Congress, but we've got one now. The Senate Committees on Health and Foreign Affairs were briefed privately on the coming virus near the end of January. By mid-February, some Senators had sold large amounts of shares and avoided the February crash.

Richard Burr seems unlikely to survive. He sold $1.7m worth of shares in February. His total net worth was declared as $1.7m two years ago, and is believed to be no more than $1.8m or $1.9m now, so he more or less liquidated everything. His position looks untenable. The FBI seized his phone on Wednesday and has accessed his personal iCloud. On Thursday, he resigned as Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, so the members wouldn't be 'distracted', though it would have been difficult for him to continue chairing a Committee that oversees the agency that is investigating him. The Republican party isn't defending him and the other North Carolina Senator has distanced himself. It has been said that the FBI warrants went to the highest level at the Justice Department, which seems plausible if you're going to come down on a prominent Senator. If Bill Barr agreed to a Republican Senator being targeted like this, it's hard to see a way out.

Kelly Loeffler has also been getting a hard time, but seems likely to survive. Loeffler never held any office until January this year, when she was appointed by our favourite Governor, Brian Kemp, to replace one of the sitting Georgia Senators, who had to retire for health reasons. Loeffler is a self-made businesswoman who grew up on a farm and worked her way up, her career taking off when she joined Intercontinental Exchange, which owns many exchanges around the world, including New York, Chicago and LIFFE. She married the CEO two years later which, co-incidentally, was around the time she really started progressing, eventually reaching the level of Senior Vice-President. In early February, she sold most of her shares, worth $3m, and bought $1m worth of shares in Citrix, whose software has been used extensively for teleworking during the crisis. She says that her asset managers sold the shares without her knowledge and she only found out some weeks later. That would be a common way of handling things, but 27 of her 29 shareholdings were sold, which seems a pretty drastic thing to do without telling the person who owns them. It seems odd that she and her husband own any shares, with him being Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. The heat seems to have reduced for her now, though. For one thing, Kelly is the wealthiest member of Congress, with a net worth of $500m (four times the next richest), so $3m is back-of-the-sofa stuff for her.

Others have also had transactions, but everyone seems to believe their versions:
- Dianne Feinstein, who has been a Senator for 27 years (and was Mayor of San Francisco for 10 years) sold $6m worth, but she says her shares are in a blind trust and her husband sold them without her knowledge. She is worth about $60m.
- Senator Jim Inhofe sold $400k of shares in Apple, PayPal and others, which all crashed in the market fall. He is worth $5-$8m and his shares are in blind trusts.
- Greg Gianforte, the richest member of Congress until Loeffler arrived (and still the richest in the House of Representatives), wasn't at the briefings, but has also been accused of insider trading for buying into Sanofi, the main producer of hydroxychloroquine. However, it was only for $15k, through a blind trust, and hydroxychloroquine is a minute part of Sanofi's income, so it's hard to make that one stick.

So most of them are using their wealth as their defence. Essentially, they are so rich that they don't notice a few million here or there. Apart from Feinstein, all the accused are Republicans, but the party is not standing by them, especially Burr, and Fox News isn't defending them. In fact, Tucker Carlson, who can spin anything to make it seem ok, led the attacks. This is an interview Carlson had with Loeffler when the story broke, when she was basically fighting for her political life, though her situation has eased since:

[Marky147]

I remember seeing something about that ages ago, but never thought we'd hear anything more.

Know it's bad when Tucker is steaming into the republicans.

We had some funky missiles when I was doing EW training at Dryad, but wonder what the callsign will be for 'Super Duper'

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1261371131929325569

That whole thread is gold, and Miss McEnany should be commended for managing to keep a straight face in these conferences. Fair play.

So much good stuff in that thread.

Like a series of SNL skits!

[kukushkin88]

Excellent contribution from Pelosi, she only needed to sign off with ‘I try to go easy on the fatties though, they have enough on their plates already’ and it would be an A+.

https://twitter.com/andyinbrum/status/1262661888200015872?s=21

[bookiebasher]

Excellent contribution from Pelosi, she only needed to sign off with ‘I try to go easy on the fatties though, they have enough on their plates already’ and it would be an A+.

https://twitter.com/andyinbrum/status/1262661888200015872?s=21

About time someone gave as good as him. She knows it will rattle him and the smirk before she made her comments said it all.