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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 427825 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #4140 on: September 30, 2020, 02:22:31 AM »

This is awful.
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nirvana
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« Reply #4141 on: September 30, 2020, 02:58:39 AM »

Watching with about a 20 minute delay. Biden coming across as compos mentis so far, no teleprompter,  probably the biggest thing the Republicans would hope they could stick him with is his faculties are well and truly withered. Doesn't seem that way at the moment. In fact, I think his style exaggerates how 'un presidential' Trump's approach looks - we're kind of used to it and it's served him reasonably well but it doesn't seem like the right time in history for his bombastic, bullying style.

Still some funny one liners from Trump I think.
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Marky147
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« Reply #4142 on: September 30, 2020, 03:15:53 AM »

I was expecting him to get shredded, but he was better than I expected.

Donald does himself no favours, especially with someone who has been debating longer than Don has been rumping pornstars.
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« Reply #4143 on: September 30, 2020, 12:03:14 PM »

I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair.  I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price. 

I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer?  I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC).  I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).
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Marky147
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« Reply #4144 on: September 30, 2020, 12:23:36 PM »

I'd backed Trump, but redded out on BF after that last night, lol.
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« Reply #4145 on: September 30, 2020, 03:26:48 PM »

I'd backed Trump, but redded out on BF after that last night, lol.

I can't see me getting a good price on Trump any time soon.  It seems the market has overreacted to Brexit and Trump's last election.  Brexit was something like 8/1 despite a fair few polls showing Brexit ahead in the lead up to the vote.

The USA is a bit weird though, I am reading attacks on Starmer daily and Corbyn would struggle to get a positive approval rating amongst labour voters, but Trump still gets massive approval amongst Republicans.  You'd think some of them would be a bit embarassed every so often?  Guess that might just reflect that the ones who disapprove might just f off and pretend they never had anything to do with the Republicans?


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« Reply #4146 on: September 30, 2020, 03:28:30 PM »

I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair.  I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price. 

I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer?  I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC).  I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).

It really is one of the strangest betting markets I can ever remember. There is a lot of what happened in 2016 and everyone thinking it is the same, whereas Bidens polling lead is bigger, stable and with a lot less undecideds than Hillary In 2016.

Backing Trump at anything less than 2/1, you either have to believe the polls are very wrong (outside the margin of error) or that Trump has very real chance of winning an election in the Supreme Court on some voter fraud ruling.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #4147 on: September 30, 2020, 04:01:08 PM »

this is a very good long read

Decades of tax information that President Trump has tried to hide from the public provides a detailed view of his business career, revealing huge losses, looming financial threats and a large, contested refund from the IRS. https://nyti.ms/30hQAWN
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AndrewT
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« Reply #4148 on: September 30, 2020, 04:39:48 PM »

I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair.  I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price. 

I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer?  I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC).  I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).

It really is one of the strangest betting markets I can ever remember. There is a lot of what happened in 2016 and everyone thinking it is the same, whereas Bidens polling lead is bigger, stable and with a lot less undecideds than Hillary In 2016.

Backing Trump at anything less than 2/1, you either have to believe the polls are very wrong (outside the margin of error) or that Trump has very real chance of winning an election in the Supreme Court on some voter fraud ruling.

It has been proper crazy - the most outlying major betting market I can ever remember. I bet on Biden a few months ago and have been forced to just go in again and again as I thought the price was more and more out of line.

The price on Biden finally moved last night - 1.83 to 1.62. I guess part of the reason for the market being strong on Trump was a thought that Biden would fall apart in the debates. That obviously didn't transpire (even though I thought Biden's first 30 mins or so were very low energy and unimpressive).

As has been stated, some things are different from last time. Biden is up by 7% a month out, compared to Clinton's 3.5% last time. Also there seem to be far fewer undecided voters this time round - Trump mopped up the majority of these last time but there aren't as many this time round in an election where he's further back.

The main complication now is what happens if the election is close - Biden may be ahead but if Trump doesn't concede and it goes to the Supreme Court things get messy.

Betfair rules on this market are 'This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.'

Not sure what 'projected Electoral College votes' are - projected by whom?
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dakky
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« Reply #4149 on: September 30, 2020, 05:23:54 PM »

I'd backed Trump, but redded out on BF after that last night, lol.

Me too; more for a bit of fun than anything but I booked the red market as well 
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Marky147
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« Reply #4150 on: September 30, 2020, 06:34:36 PM »

I'd backed Trump, but redded out on BF after that last night, lol.

Me too; more for a bit of fun than anything but I booked the red market as well 

I was only trying to pay for Xmas, so nothing lifechanging... looks like the nephew and niece might get 50p pieces, instead of £50 notes Cheesy
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« Reply #4151 on: September 30, 2020, 11:15:27 PM »

CNN Chief Political Correspondent Dana Bash presents her analysis of the debate.

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Marky147
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« Reply #4152 on: October 01, 2020, 12:04:36 AM »

Haha, that's about the most concise analysis of it.
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Marky147
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« Reply #4153 on: October 01, 2020, 10:12:53 AM »

 Click to see full-size image.


Made me chuckle.
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Doobs
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« Reply #4154 on: October 01, 2020, 01:25:40 PM »

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Made me chuckle.

v good Marky
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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