The Next President of the United States

[AndrewT]

Big swing back to Trump on Betfair.  Biden now 1.69/1.7 having been less than 1.5 two or three days ago.  I don't see anything much in the polls, but lots of talk of measures that are stopping poorer people voting. 

Florida is still very close too, and voter suppression measures could be more significant in a close race?

The only thing that springs to mind is that stupid Hunter Biden story over the weekend that the Trump campaign were obviously hoping would be this year's 'But her emails!', but that story was quickly shown up to be a very obvious and clumsy piece of Rudy Giuliani black ops so didn't really get much traction.

The only aspect which could possibly have an effect is that the social media companies decided this was the story where they would stop blocking access to it because it was so obviously bullshit, which could energise some portion of the Trump base but that really isn't going to be enough to swing things his way.

[bookiebasher]

Sometimes when I’m going against the tide of money I wonder whether someone knows something I don’t .

In the case of betting on this 2020 election I just can’t get my head round the odds .

Everything points to a Biden win , possibly with a landslide.

Only one more debate for Biden to make a mess up but there are so few undecideds compared to
4 years ago.

One of my mates had £500 on Trump a while back with me at 11-10 and he’s convinced the Donald
will win.

Have his supporters all been brain washed or are they all as thick as their leader ?

Staggered at the betting odds in relation to polls , keep dipping my toes in the market but will
need a wheelchair if that twat gets in .

[TightEnd]

the market move over the weekend is said to be a growing awareness the "wall of Trump voters" who will turn out on the day, and won't be voting in advance, it is said?

[bookiebasher]

the market move over the weekend is said to be a growing awareness the "wall of Trump voters" who will turn out on the day, and won't be voting in advance, it is said?

Let’s hope it’s pissing it down with 100 mile an hour winds.

Voting is going to be massively up from 2016 and that supposedly helps Biden.

The two I really want beat , apart from the idiot , are Graham and McConnell .

Really smarmy sanctimonious pricks.

[bookiebasher]

Trump is miles behind with women , people of colour ( dunno if that’s the right phrase to use ! ) .

Vets are turning against him .

Most of those who couldn’t vote in 2016 will be Biden supporters and the biggest section....

those with an IQ above 10 

I know I misjudged America’s misogyny on Warren but utterly convinced that they have had
enough of 4 years of that clown.

Plus Covid is going to get worse in the next 16 days and the tabloids must be hanging onto
more dirt for maximum impact on Election Day.

Must admit though , he’s made politics much more exciting.

[Longy]

It continues to be the strangest betting market I can recollect. The Hunter Biden story doesn’t seem like a vote changer to me, the Trump campaign need the allegations to come from a reputable source for this to have an effect in my opinion beyond energising his base.

the market move over the weekend is said to be a growing awareness the "wall of Trump voters" who will turn out on the day, and won't be voting in advance, it is said?

Feels a bit like the supposed wall of young voters for Labour in 2019 rumours on Election Day and Boris turning up in his constituency campaigning on the night of the election when actually the polls had it pretty much right. I have noticed a lot of Trump supporters convinced by the lot of people turned up at a Trump rally/ appearance as some kind of validation he is winning.

So much of this coming from how the 2016 result has been misunderstood, a lot of the factors that allowed Trump to win then aren’t the same now. Apart from his electoral college advantage which is possibly bigger this time than it was then but he needs to be within 5 points nationally for that come into play.

[MintTrav]

I'm not sure why there would be softening in betting. There has been a small amount of slippage in Biden's lead, so it's down to 11 points, which is still huge. Just one poll by the Democracy Institute has Trump 1% ahead nationwide. The Express sponsored it and has been banging on about it, and a few right-wing sites have caught on and started quoting it and asking why the media aren't paying it attention. Maybe that's had some effect. 538 excludes Democracy Institute and Trafalgar polls from its averages as they favour Republicans by more than reasonable margins.

The States that are in the mix are virtually all ones that Trump won last time, so he's trying to hold on on numerous fronts at the same time. The campaign made the mistake early on of targeting some States Hillary won, like Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota, and wasted money that could have been used elsewhere on a goose chase. Instead, it's now all about whether he can hold Michigan (unlikely), Wisconsin (unlikely), Pennsylvania (unlikely), Arizona (unlikely), Florida (toss-up) and North Carolina (possible). Even worse, Iowa and Ohio are toss-ups and even Georgia and Texas are wobbly. Assuming he keeps those last four and North Carolina, he has to win Florida, where he is 2% behind, but Republicans generally poll a bit lighter than their votes there and Trump achieved 2% more than his polls nationwide last time, so it's very feasible for him to take it again. On top of that, he then needs to take either Michigan and Wisconsin (which usually come out with the same result) or Arizona and Pennsylvania. The nightmare would be if he somehow won Wisconsin and Arizona but lost Michigan and Penn, resulting in a tie (there are a few other ways a tie could result, but they're even less likely).

For Trump to win, everyone would have to go right for him. Lately, everything in the election has been going wrong.

State	Trump	Trump	Biden	Trump	Biden	Trump	Biden
Texas	4% ahead	38		38		38
Georgia	1% behind	16		16		16
Maine 2	even	1		1		1
Iowa	1% behind	6		6		6
Ohio	1% ahead	18		18		18
North Carolina	3% behind	15		15		15
The Rest		125	233	125	233	125	233
Sub-Total		219	233	219	233	219	233
Florida	2% behind	29		29		29
Michigan	7% behind	16			16		16
Wisconsin	6% behind	10			10	10
Pennsylvania	4% behind		20	20			20
Arizona	4% behind		11	11		11
Total		274	264	279	259	269	269

[MintTrav]

How could you not love him?

Pennsylvania:


Ohio:


Nevada:


Florida:

[MintTrav]

Ben Sasse, Republican Senator, has torn Trump apart on a "private" town hall call with a few thousand Nebraskan Republicans (so it's designed to be leaked). Sasse has been one of the few who has let everyone know his real feelings all along by openly criticising Trump from the start, but he hasn't spoken out when it really mattered. He followed the party line and voted against impeachment and he kept quiet when it seemed like he might have a right-wing challenger a few weeks ago. Now he has secured the Republican nomination, he is positioning himself as a moderate to ensure he fends off the Democrat. It's somewhat helpful to Biden for this to come out now, in that it's a devastating critique of a Republican President by a Republican Senator, but it would have had a lot more impact a year ago.

[MintTrav]

Some hope for Trump? The party holding the White House almost always wins after one term (and almost always loses after two terms).

Click to see full-size image.

[Marky147]

Got some moves, our Donny

Sasse in a close run election next time around?

[RED-DOG]

Some hope for Trump? The party holding the White House almost always wins after one term (and almost always loses after two terms).

Click to see full-size image.

Are they allowed more than two terms?

[MintTrav]

Got some moves, our Donny

Sasse in a close run election next time around?

He should win easily against a Dem in Nebraska in November - his isn't one of the threatened GOP seats. That'll see him good for six years, ie til well after the next Presidential election. His threat then, as now, would be in the Primary - Sasse is an intellectual who has stood out for traditional Republicanism while most others have gone along with Trump, so it depends on how the land lies in 2026.

[Longy]

MT is taking about party not individual presidents.  George Bush snr was a one term president but followed Reagan who was a republican as well,

[Marky147]

Got some moves, our Donny

Sasse in a close run election next time around?

He should win easily against a Dem in Nebraska in November - his isn't one of the threatened GOP seats. That'll see him good for six years, ie til well after the next Presidential election. His threat then, as now, would be in the Primary - Sasse is an intellectual who has stood out for traditional Republicanism while most others have gone along with Trump, so it depends on how the land lies in 2026.

Haven't heard much about him chirping back at the president until now, and never even heard of him until Don was talking about 'Little Ben', the other night

Presume party lines, rather than trump lines were the reason for not voting against impeachment.

So many different votes and branches, especially when you're as dopey as me!