The Next President of the United States

[Sheriff Fatman]

Rudy Giuliani though...

He was such a brilliant figure as mayor of New York in the aftermath of 9/11.

Now he's a lunatic conspiracy theorist who should worry more about how he fell victim to Borat.

[arbboy]

what a rollercoaster ride for the pros on biden.   For full disclosure i never got involved as i didn't beleive the bf market with 300m (an all time record) was wrong.   I know numerous people who have had all time biggest bets ever on this.   I have no idea how they felt in the last 24 hours as it was a proper carnage rollercoaster.   They look like they will get there but i discussed privately with tal (to avoid after time diiscussions before the vote) that i didn't see where the edge was.   I hope they all win but i can't have a lifetime max bet on a foreign poll and a nutter like trump.    He went 1/4 in running for millions.   That isn't my idea of a lifetime max bet.   I would expect to win on the bridle backing a 1/2 shot.   I hope all the pro odds on backers get their cash because they have earnt it. 

[Karabiner]

There must be plenty kicking themselves after deciding to red-out when Trump went big odds-on.

[MintTrav]

Click to see full-size image.

Also Michigan:

[MintTrav]

Joe is trying to paint a picture of being more responsible than Trump in not assuming victory until it's actually decided.

It's a bit odd, then, that his transition website has appeared today. https://buildbackbetter.com/

[Marky147]

Sleepy Joe is ready to goooooooooo

[Marky147]

Click to see full-size image.

[MintTrav]

If you weren't sure who you want to win, here's another good reason to hope it's not Trump.

Click to see full-size image.

Probably greened up at one point short on the machine and invested it all in bleach. Or not, as nobody's ever mentioned it as a posible cure.

Almost half a billion was matched on Betfair, a good chunk of it by folk with far better knowledge than anyone on here. Dipping in and saying the entire market was wrong is a bit...

Many commentators spoke beforehand about how Election Day might finish up looking much better for Trump than the final result. It was always possible that Trump could win Florida (and Georgia and North Carolina) quite early and he was always expected to end the day with the lead in the Rust Belt States, pending most of the mail-ins, though he would probably lose those States in the end. This was one of the standard options of how it might play out. There was even a name for the illusion of a Trump lead that was expected, as it was discussed so much - the ‘red mirage’. I was surprised, therefore, to see some people on social media almost awarding the election to Trump during the night. They clearly didn’t understand what was happening. Democrat disappointment at not putting it away by taking Florida was read as depression over the whole outcome, and the expected Rust Belt lead for Trump was taken as evidence that the election was getting away from Biden. This was a misunderstanding. There was no roller coaster - Biden's margins were lower than expected, so some expected bankers became closer and even marginal in some cases, but he was always favourite in those States, and he had many ways of winning. He just had to bring in three out of the Swing States he was ahead in - Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn, Arizona and Nevada. Trump also needed to win three of them (from behind) as well as holding Florida, Ohio, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina. This last lot would just have been bonuses for Biden, indicating a landslide and settling the overall result early, but he never needed any of them. The general pattern through the States has been much as anticipated, just with lower margins for Biden and no significant breakthroughs. Having seen the prices quoted on here and on Facebook, it's obvious that the market was wrong.

[Longy]

It is obvious the polls have underestimated Trump and there will be a lot of questions why. I think we will find the betting markets were actually not far off, because of this big Blue shift late. The most likely electoral map is now 306-232, and I think Nirvana got Trump plus 80 on election night, that really is not far off. The popular vote is going to expand greatly in the next few days/ weeks and Nate Silver has done quick maths estimating around a 4.5 point lead, which when taking into account Trumps electoral college advantage 1.5 on Biden was about right.

[Doobs]

If you weren't sure who you want to win, here's another good reason to hope it's not Trump.

Click to see full-size image.

Probably greened up at one point short on the machine and invested it all in bleach. Or not, as nobody's ever mentioned it as a posible cure.

Almost half a billion was matched on Betfair, a good chunk of it by folk with far better knowledge than anyone on here. Dipping in and saying the entire market was wrong is a bit...

Many commentators spoke beforehand about how Election Day might finish up looking much better for Trump than the final result. It was always possible that Trump could win Florida (and Georgia and North Carolina) quite early and he was always expected to end the day with the lead in the Rust Belt States, pending most of the mail-ins, though he would probably lose those States in the end. This was one of the standard options of how it might play out. There was even a name for the illusion of a Trump lead that was expected, as it was discussed so much - the ‘red mirage’. I was surprised, therefore, to see some people on social media almost awarding the election to Trump during the night. They clearly didn’t understand what was happening. Democrat disappointment at not putting it away by taking Florida was read as depression over the whole outcome, and the expected Rust Belt lead for Trump was taken as evidence that the election was getting away from Biden. This was a misunderstanding. There was no roller coaster - Biden's margins were lower than expected, so some expected bankers became closer and even marginal in some cases, but he was always favourite in those States, and he had many ways of winning. He just had to bring in three out of the Swing States he was ahead in - Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn, Arizona and Nevada. Trump also needed to win three of them (from behind) as well as holding Florida, Ohio, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina. This last lot would just have been bonuses for Biden, indicating a landslide and settling the overall result early, but he never needed any of them. The general pattern through the States has been much as anticipated, just with lower margins for Biden and no significant breakthroughs. Having seen the prices quoted on here and on Facebook, it's obvious that the market was wrong.

Weren't you saying it was all over a month ago and Trump had only a 10% chance?  It is much easier to see what happened now than yesterday morning, or what was going to happen a month ago.   Even now a couple of these States are so close that the result could have gone either way(the market suggests they still could).   I don't really see how someone making Trump favourite yesterday morning is any worse than someone else saying it was all over a month ago.   

Betting isn't perfect, you aim to make 5% or so and there are many fuck ups on the way to that.  It is way easier finding winners when you haven't put any money down and after the event has almost finished. 

[MintTrav]

If you weren't sure who you want to win, here's another good reason to hope it's not Trump.

Click to see full-size image.

Probably greened up at one point short on the machine and invested it all in bleach. Or not, as nobody's ever mentioned it as a posible cure.

Almost half a billion was matched on Betfair, a good chunk of it by folk with far better knowledge than anyone on here. Dipping in and saying the entire market was wrong is a bit...

Many commentators spoke beforehand about how Election Day might finish up looking much better for Trump than the final result. It was always possible that Trump could win Florida (and Georgia and North Carolina) quite early and he was always expected to end the day with the lead in the Rust Belt States, pending most of the mail-ins, though he would probably lose those States in the end. This was one of the standard options of how it might play out. There was even a name for the illusion of a Trump lead that was expected, as it was discussed so much - the ‘red mirage’. I was surprised, therefore, to see some people on social media almost awarding the election to Trump during the night. They clearly didn’t understand what was happening. Democrat disappointment at not putting it away by taking Florida was read as depression over the whole outcome, and the expected Rust Belt lead for Trump was taken as evidence that the election was getting away from Biden. This was a misunderstanding. There was no roller coaster - Biden's margins were lower than expected, so some expected bankers became closer and even marginal in some cases, but he was always favourite in those States, and he had many ways of winning. He just had to bring in three out of the Swing States he was ahead in - Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn, Arizona and Nevada. Trump also needed to win three of them (from behind) as well as holding Florida, Ohio, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina. This last lot would just have been bonuses for Biden, indicating a landslide and settling the overall result early, but he never needed any of them. The general pattern through the States has been much as anticipated, just with lower margins for Biden and no significant breakthroughs. Having seen the prices quoted on here and on Facebook, it's obvious that the market was wrong.

Weren't you saying it was all over a month ago and Trump had only a 10% chance?  It is much easier to see what happened now than yesterday morning, or what was going to happen a month ago.   Even now a couple of these States are so close that the result could have gone either way(the market suggests they still could).   I don't really see how someone making Trump favourite yesterday morning is any worse than someone else saying it was all over a month ago.   

Betting isn't perfect, you aim to make 5% or so and there are many fuck ups on the way to that.  It is way easier finding winners when you haven't put any money down and after the event has almost finished. 

It was the conventional wisdom a month ago that Trump had little chance, based on the polls. Trump was never favourite at any point yesterday morning, or any other time for several months. Both conclusions were wrong, but one was logical, based on the (incorrect) evidence provided, and one wasn't. Anyhow, I have no interest in betting but I've got myself into a discussion about it. I'd rather discuss the politics.

[MintTrav]

Florida televangelist Paula White is spiritual advisor to the President (on the White House staff).

Click to see full-size image.

Paula was hearing the sound of victory yesterday. The supporting cast is nearly as good.

[Marky147]

Only surrounds himself with stable geniuses, obv.

[Marky147]

How to fairly process votes:

Keep counting in Arizona

Count more slowly in Georgia

Stop counting Pennsylvania and Michigan

Recount Wisconsin

Throw out heavily Biden "vote dumps" in North Carolina

Think that's how Pakman has translated the Trump's Tweet storm today for us not clued up

[Ironside]

[

Think that's how Pakman has translated the Trump's Tweet storm today for us not clued up

he was more fun when he was eating pills and running away from ghosts