Southwell The Fibresand Is Here 2016/2017

[horseplayer]

Clerk of the Course just told ATR that the track should be riding standard after the recent rain otherwise might have been deep/slow fwiw.

[horseplayer]

Lovely write up Horsey. Generally speaking, how far above your tissue would you want a horse priced before you make it a bet?

Thank you, I would want a bit of wiggle room no hard and fast rules for me. A tissue is very useful as a guide but if I put in a Barney Curley horse (ok not now but similar connections) at 10s and it was 100s on Betfair would I then back it? Not for me.

There are I am sure plenty who will just back anything out of line on their tissue. I try and use a bit of "feel" along with the tissue.

Lovely write up Horsey. Generally speaking, how far above your tissue would you want a horse priced before you make it a bet?

Agree with this.  One question.  Why do you price your tissue to 105% and not 100%?

Thanks Arb. Good question! Habit from when i tried to get onto the Rp i think (even though that was 1% or 2% a runner) will price to 100% from here on in.

Thanks for all feedback.

Surprising late punt on East Coast Lady hold up animal who often looks awkward at the start and can miss the break totally.

Fwiw here are the notes on that one.

east coast lady = kodiac slightly below a/e at southwell, horse often very slowly away class dropper trainer very cold 1/60 but has had 9 seconds.

[horseplayer]

No excuses there , they possibly went a touch hard but had a good position 2 out head went to the side and chucked the towel in.

The very old boy General Tufto running on for 3rd was good to see. Be back later tonight or possibly tomorrow with notes from today and in general.

Thanks all

[Steve Swift]

Ok I will ask, what do we mean by "tissue" ?

Steve

[atdc21]

Hi Horsey, good stuff.
Wont you be better off keeping your tissue prices to 105-108% like you were pricing up for a bookie, as they wont be betting to 100%

[horseplayer]

Ok I will ask, what do we mean by "tissue" ?

Steve

Just a price guide Steve. The thing you see in the racing post/ sporting life online think Oddschecker has one as well.

Just helps to start the analysis of a race, if i was a bit less rusty I would not always do one especially for a race like that with not to many unknowns.

[horseplayer]

Hi Horsey, good stuff.
Wont you be better off keeping your tissue prices to 105-108% like you were pricing up for a bookie, as they wont be betting to 100%

Hi atdc thanks.

The on course return was 115% obviously this is outdated maybe 105-110% is better the night before, I am very much open to feedback on that.

Right must go now, thanks all

[arbboy]

Hi Horsey, good stuff.
Wont you be better off keeping your tissue prices to 105-108% like you were pricing up for a bookie, as they wont be betting to 100%

The whole idea of a tissue for a pro punter is to back things with a bigger chance of winning than your tissue says.  You are not a bookmaker.  You shouldn't add a margin to your tissue.  You are trying to beat the bookmaker by backing true 4/1 shots at 5/1+  If you make a horse 5/1 and put a margin into your tissue it becomes a 4/1 or 9/2 shot and when you see 5/1 you think you have an edge when you don't.

To use a similar view of a dice.  The tissue is 5/1 each of six.  If you price your tissue like a bookmaker you will go 4/1 each of 6 and bet to 120%.  If you then see 9/2 or 5/1 about one of your selections you will back it based on your tissue but the true price is 5/1.  A tissue should always be priced to 100% exactly.  It is a probability guide to each selections chances of winning.

[atdc21]

Ah ok Arb, i see from the point of view of betting we want to work from 100%
Years ago when i first started betting i knew man who worked out tissue prices for bookmakers, obvs he worked to their margin, thats what prob confused me.

[arbboy]

Ah ok Arb, i see from the point of view of betting we want to work from 100%
Years ago when i first started betting i knew man who worked out tissue prices for bookmakers, obvs he worked to their margin, thats what prob confused me.

No worries.  As horsey says earlier regarding how close to your tissue do you bet that generally comes to how skilled you are at pricing up things.  The better you are the more confident you can be of pushing smaller edges.  It also comes down to your risk profile as an individual (ie how risk loving you are) and also whether you wish to operate a high margin model or a high volume model.

[The Camel]

Hi Horsey, good stuff.
Wont you be better off keeping your tissue prices to 105-108% like you were pricing up for a bookie, as they wont be betting to 100%

The whole idea of a tissue for a pro punter is to back things with a bigger chance of winning than your tissue says.  You are not a bookmaker.  You shouldn't add a margin to your tissue.  You are trying to beat the bookmaker by backing true 4/1 shots at 5/1+  If you make a horse 5/1 and put a margin into your tissue it becomes a 4/1 or 9/2 shot and when you see 5/1 you think you have an edge when you don't.

To use a similar view of a dice.  The tissue is 5/1 each of six.  If you price your tissue like a bookmaker you will go 4/1 each of 6 and bet to 120%.  If you then see 9/2 or 5/1 about one of your selections you will back it based on your tissue but the true price is 5/1.  A tissue should always be priced to 100% exactly.  It is a probability guide to each selections chances of winning.

In pre Betfair days I used to make my tissue a 90% book.

[arbboy]

Hi Horsey, good stuff.
Wont you be better off keeping your tissue prices to 105-108% like you were pricing up for a bookie, as they wont be betting to 100%

The whole idea of a tissue for a pro punter is to back things with a bigger chance of winning than your tissue says.  You are not a bookmaker.  You shouldn't add a margin to your tissue.  You are trying to beat the bookmaker by backing true 4/1 shots at 5/1+  If you make a horse 5/1 and put a margin into your tissue it becomes a 4/1 or 9/2 shot and when you see 5/1 you think you have an edge when you don't.

To use a similar view of a dice.  The tissue is 5/1 each of six.  If you price your tissue like a bookmaker you will go 4/1 each of 6 and bet to 120%.  If you then see 9/2 or 5/1 about one of your selections you will back it based on your tissue but the true price is 5/1.  A tissue should always be priced to 100% exactly.  It is a probability guide to each selections chances of winning.

In pre Betfair days I used to make my tissue a 90% book.

With a view that if you got your tissue price you had a bet i assume as you had the edge you needed?

[horseplayer]

Southwell Review 10/11/2016

12.25

Mostly negatives I am taking from this race. The two main gambles were Davey Boy and East Coast Lady and both never looked liked getting involved let alone winning.
Davey Boy just looks devoid of ability and the maiden win must now just go down to one of those freak efforts and the only time he has been near the lead. East Coast Lady was a bizarre late gamble, missed the break badly as per Curtis panicked and rushed her up. She then hit all the kickback and looked to resent it and dropped away. Be amazed if she runs here again this winter.

Cascading Stars the selection had no excuses, had a good position having shown good speed early once pressure was applied his head went to the side and he just plodded on once paced to the line. Only way he can win here is if he can get an easy lead in an even weaker race probably a seller/claimer. Won't be for me after that.

Credit to the winner Barista, now 9 wins in a long career he ran poorly only other try here years ago which was the major negative but he won easily in the end. In a field of horses that like to place he showed a good attitude and no doubt will win once or twice more before the turf starts again.


12.55

The second division saw a track regular win easily in Stun Gun. Fourth win here for this likeable animal showed a good attitude throughout. Will now be up to 0-70 class which makes life harder but can never rule out around here.

Swansway made his Southwell debut, breeding all positive and was backed from 7/1 very early the night before to a solid 2/1 fav come the race. Had first-time headgear and raced closer to the speed than before. Never looked like getting to the winner but for a 3-year-old to get close to Stun Gun on debut here is a good effort. The way it was backed suggests it he should win here before the season is over. Added to tracker albeit could be short next time.


1.25

For a maiden auction stakes this looks a fair enough race. The winner was a surprise but it looks believable, the horse with the most form and the James Tate horse in third.

Otomo has a frustrating looking profile but didn't do a lot wrong and looks worth trying at 6 or especially 5 furlongs around here. Has now shown very good pace all starts since debut. Added to tracker for a maiden/handicap around here (chance might even get dropped from 66 for this).

Lulu The Rocket had her third quick run for a handicap mark here and has been beaten slightly less each run. Very slowly away then pushed up halfway in touch before taken to the usually worst part of the track. This showed some promise and depending on the handicap mark may be of interest back here. Trainer does well here without too many runners. Added to tracker.


1.55

Best race on the card by a long way and produced a winner likely to be in all the best sprints here this winter. Showdaisy looks a different filly since the cheekpieces have been applied.

Oriental Relation is a very good all weather sprinter but ran a strange race here. Has not been held up for a long time but was deliberately taken back here and all chance had gone. A mark of 83 is a touch high but a return to front-running will surely come next time. Added to tracker


2.25

No view here it is a nursery.

2.55

Looks a touch weaker than the earlier maiden.

Fleeting Glimpse was quite solid in the market for Andrew Balding. Raced keenly on debut and hood on which suggests she has shown that at home. It didn't calm her down here but the free going style could pay dividends eventually here. Baldings very rarely win on debut so improvement can be expected. added to tracker


3.25

Probably most interesting race on the card.

The winner High Command started fav for a Doncaster maiden on debut and didn't run a yard in hindsight 10 furlongs would have been way too short. Had two more runs for a mark showed promise at Newcastle and then won this easily enough from 69. Looks a thorough stayer don't think the track was of particular benefit just ahead of his mark, looked one paced two out before running on strongly to the line. Has an entry at Kempton and will be short to follow up.

Safrina Marina ran on first look an amazing race here. 6 lengths behind after a furlong the rider at no stage panicked and she made smooth progress until 3 out when she was taken to the far rail (normally a disadvantage but seemed ok yesterday). She is usually held up but not that far out of her ground and she finished full of running. Her trainer Martin Smith has had a 50/1 winner this winning at 33s in recent weeks so maybe the stable is coming right. Her running style is possibly not ideal around here so she is reluctantly left out of the tracker.

Captain Swift is hardly a win machine. However, if he remains on a mark of 62 after this he should be capable of winning around here. Again the hold-up style is not ideal around here but he is definitely well handicapped. added to tracker


3.55

Hands and heels race, main thought is well done Charles Smith a win for a veteran here in Alpha Tauri at 20/1 after the Southwell legend General Tufto ran third in the opener at 66/1. Great to see these old warriors still going.

[horseplayer]

RECORD SO FAR

Starting Bank £2000

Bets

Cascading Stars 1pt win (£ 50) 10/1 SP =  8/1  Finished 5th of 11. LOST

End Bank £ 1950

[horseplayer]

Tracker Horses

Already in tracker

Elusivity

Added from meeting 10/11/2016.

Captain Swift
Fleeting Glimpse
Lulu The Rocket
Oriental Relation
Otomo
Swansway

No entries at present.