$3,000 no limit, ThursdayReally tough one to take. OUT, in level 2.
The table was an absolute dream. I couldn't believe it in a 3k tournament, I guess it was possibly the one incredibly lucky table draw in the whole room. I would say, in the last few years, the best I've ever seen. Matt Affleck was the only exception; apart from that, there were literally 7 guys, just having fun, talking, limping into every pot.
Matt had an absolute dream in the first level. 2 guys just gave him a stack (he managed to move in for 3xpot 88 on 9765J and was called on the river, and moved in about 2x pot with QQ on QQT98 and was called by AJ). One guy remained as the short stack, and the other (incredibly) was replaced by someone very similar.
They didn't seem to be bluffing at all; It was the dream to play against; all 7 just put in chips when they had a hand, and checked when they didn't.
The whole time I was trying to work out how to play against Affleck (three to my right), but most of the time, at 25/50, it was easy just to limp into everything that I could in position. I played two small pots of substance:
1) Dealt
UTG, I made it 300(!) at 25-50 and 3 called. Flop
, check-fold.
2) Two limped to my small blind, I limped
, board was
, I bet 300 into 400, big blind called; I bet 500 into 1000, he called, and bet 1,200 into 2,000. He called, and had
.
I had 12,300 at the start of 50-100. By this point, one of the limpy guys had been moved, and replaced by Nick Binger, to my direct left. Then, this happened.
At 50-100, Binger opens to 300 UTG. Guy to his left folds, and then ALL SIX others, including Affleck, call. Pot is 2,200 coming to me. I have
in the big blind. At this point, I'm very conscious of what could arise- that I three bet, he four bets, and I have the nightmare live poker decision.
I gave some brief thought to not three-betting, but it is just a no. Ultimately it's a table where I have to try and get the chips if they are there to get, and it is very possible that I would get the lot in on something as simple as J32 against JT.
I three bet to 1,800. At this point, I put myself in the rare spot of not knowing for sure what I would do if the decision came. However, knew that I would be able to tank without giving anything away, should the 4-bet come at me. The most likely outcome is a Binger fold and one or two calls from the recs, and then it will be a inevitably big pot, but one in which it will often be easy to make the right decision.
(Sadly, Binger has aces)
He acted it well. I was able to see the clock, and his tank was just under 4 minutes. I regretted that I didn't know how Binger plays, but I had to conclude he is good enough to at least know it's a good spot to 4bet bluff, and not too nitty to have some chance of getting it in with JJ, given how strange the spot was. I think it probably is the case that his tank was deliberate, and implying exactly what he should try to imply- that he was taking in what a strange spot this 8-way pot was, and tanking what to do with a tough decision (whether that tough decision was JJ,AK, or a 4-bet bluff). I was conscious that I wasn't going to draw anything like a definite read from his tank, but it definitely did work for him, as it influenced me a little.
He 4-bet to 3,800 (he has almost exactly 15k). I then went into a long tank myself (I had been aware as I three-bet that it was fine to tank this decision, without making any hand more or less likely).
I came to these decisions:
1) There is at least some kind of chance this is a bluff. He won't think there is much chance at all I am light, but he should be aware of everything about the spot that the four bet puts me in- The fact that it puts me to a decision for everything, made more difficult by the dream, passive table. So tough to put a number on it, but I had to make a guess, and it was that he would bluff 20% of his hands that were a 4bet-fold. I pick up 7,700 if this is the case.
2) It's horrible for him if he has jacks. His long tanks works there; I guesstimate it as 50% that if he does have JJ, he will get them in, and so his tank works as implying that he is working out whether he wants to 4-bet call it off with jacks.
3) The circumstances mean that he may well have to 4bet-call it off with AK.
I move in. He snaps, he has aces. Board is J8432.
I think ultimately it is a cooler of circumstance. It was important to think rationally, but I was of course aware that it was a disgusting spot to have to get in 120 bigs with QQ.
Would appreciate people's thoughts, but my feeling is that a) I have to three-bet, and now the six calls obviously make the pot so inflated that it will put me to a decision for everything if Binger does 4-bet, and
b) The spot is now horrible enough for him with JJ and AK, that I have to get it in.
Tough to take, I feel stunned to have busted from that table so early; the kind of live poker decision with so many elements, that it is a decision I've never come had before.