Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin)

[acegooner]

You are kidding right? You've said some good stuff on this thread but this right here is complete hogwash.

If the margin cost is close to zero where's the incentive for anyone to produce it or install/upkeep the infrastructure to get it from the turbine to your server farm?

The only reason people make wind turbines is to make money. The profits available from green energy are improving hence the reason more people are installing it but if those profits tend towards zero that market disappears really fast.

What if everyone produces their own energy at an extremely low cost?

Your perspective seems that everyone is out there to make lots of money, do you think that trend is continuing among the millenials?

I wish you were right with this I really do but I'm afraid you're in a dream world if you think energy will ever be anywhere even close to free.

I don't dream about this, I just look at the trend and use Moore's and Swanson's law and quickly come to the conclusion that the price of solar and other energy will reach a point where it is virtually free. Just because something seems inconceivable, doesn't mean it isn't going to happen. Of course it's inconceivable, just like in Moore's law the amount of transistors on integrated circuits will continue to double every 2 years, creating an exponential rate of improvement. I don't mind being called "a dreamer" since I am sure when Gordon Moore's law was first conned, people in their 50's who were alien to computers would have just brushed it off and called these people new to computers as "dreamers". Well it's 2018 and 50 years later Moore's law has held up pretty well. It is probably close to reaching it's saturation point now hence why we will never reach 100% aggregate efficiency in converting energy into production.

I will remember this next time my energy bill gets another hike upwards.

[nirvana]

It's true that several countries have currencies which have less trust in them than bitcoin; and it is viable that bitcoin could replace the dollar as their alternative - but that's a pretty niche market.

Niche- denoting or relating to products, services, or interests that appeal to a small, specialized section of the population.

It's not niche, we are talking about millions and millions of people here. Bitcoin is already reaching hundreds of thousands of these people despite being an experiment that started just 9 years ago.

[/quote]

Just on this - with the world pop at $7-8bn - Bitcoin reaching hundreds of thousands of (gamblers and criminals) is the very definition of niche I reckon.

On the cheap energy thing - probs haven't read the last few pages as deeply as I might but where is the benefit to the world and blockchain in low power costs - although it happens often I hate it when a point goes over my head

[EvilPie]

You are kidding right? You've said some good stuff on this thread but this right here is complete hogwash.

If the margin cost is close to zero where's the incentive for anyone to produce it or install/upkeep the infrastructure to get it from the turbine to your server farm?

The only reason people make wind turbines is to make money. The profits available from green energy are improving hence the reason more people are installing it but if those profits tend towards zero that market disappears really fast.

What if everyone produces their own energy at an extremely low cost?

Your perspective seems that everyone is out there to make lots of money, do you think that trend is continuing among the millenials?

I wish you were right with this I really do but I'm afraid you're in a dream world if you think energy will ever be anywhere even close to free.

I don't dream about this, I just look at the trend and use Moore's and Swanson's law and quickly come to the conclusion that the price of solar and other energy will reach a point where it is virtually free. Just because something seems inconceivable, doesn't mean it isn't going to happen. Of course it's inconceivable, just like in Moore's law the amount of transistors on integrated circuits will continue to double every 2 years, creating an exponential rate of improvement. I don't mind being called "a dreamer" since I am sure when Gordon Moore's law was first conned, people in their 50's who were alien to computers would have just brushed it off and called these people new to computers as "dreamers". Well it's 2018 and 50 years later Moore's law has held up pretty well. It is probably close to reaching it's saturation point now hence why we will never reach 100% aggregate efficiency in converting energy into production.

I don't know this for certain but I'm pretty sure I know more about renewable energy than you do. I've probably done a similar amount of research in to renewable energy and 'green' products as you have in to crypto currencies.

You've called people on here in the past for making sweeping statements about cryptos without doing their research and now you're doing exactly the same with renewables. You've looked at a trend and used laws that were made over 50 years ago which apply to a completely different industry and come to a conclusion that we're going to get almost free energy at some point in the future.

I firmly believe we'll get to a state of close to 100% clean energy within my lifetime (I'm funking for another 40 years) but I'm under no illusions that it'll be anywhere close to free. I think it'll cost about the same as it does now, probably more.

I've gone down the 'green' route myself and installed solar panels a battery and an air source heat pump. I did an insane amount of research before deciding whether or not it was financially viable. The conclusion was that it wasn't even close but I did it anyway because it gives me a nice warm feeling. Apparently it's much better now than it used to be but it's still very shit. With subsidies it just about works but take those away and it just does not work.

I love the thought of de-centralised energy. I've got my panels and I also have a pretty Tesla battery that those panels charge up. If everybody in my local area had the same set up and we could connect to a few decent sized wind turbines as well then we'd probably have free energy for the next 20 years. Unfortunately we'd have to spend about £20k each up front (not including the wind turbines) but hey who needs to recoup their capex in Utopia.

Everyone isn't out there to make lots of money no, it's just the same 1% who have been and always will be that we have to worry about.

It's going to take some kind of cataclysmic event to level us all out and make us realise that we should actually think about each other instead of ourselves. Millenials (I hate that term) are just as bad as every generation prior. Why have you bought your cryptos? Is it because you want to encourage the de-centralisation of currencies and help us towards a better future or is it because you want to make a butt load of money? Go on, be honest.....

[EvilPie]

It's true that several countries have currencies which have less trust in them than bitcoin; and it is viable that bitcoin could replace the dollar as their alternative - but that's a pretty niche market.

Niche- denoting or relating to products, services, or interests that appeal to a small, specialized section of the population.

It's not niche, we are talking about millions and millions of people here. Bitcoin is already reaching hundreds of thousands of these people despite being an experiment that started just 9 years ago.

Just on this - with the world pop at $7-8bn - Bitcoin reaching hundreds of thousands of (gamblers and criminals) is the very definition of niche I reckon.

On the cheap energy thing - probs haven't read the last few pages as deeply as I might but where is the benefit to the world and blockchain in low power costs - although it happens often I hate it when a point goes over my head
[/quote]

Mining a single bitcoin uses about the same amount of energy as driving to the moon in your V8 Range Rover

[nirvana]

It's true that several countries have currencies which have less trust in them than bitcoin; and it is viable that bitcoin could replace the dollar as their alternative - but that's a pretty niche market.

Niche- denoting or relating to products, services, or interests that appeal to a small, specialized section of the population.

It's not niche, we are talking about millions and millions of people here. Bitcoin is already reaching hundreds of thousands of these people despite being an experiment that started just 9 years ago.

Just on this - with the world pop at $7-8bn - Bitcoin reaching hundreds of thousands of (gamblers and criminals) is the very definition of niche I reckon.

On the cheap energy thing - probs haven't read the last few pages as deeply as I might but where is the benefit to the world and blockchain in low power costs - although it happens often I hate it when a point goes over my head

Mining a single bitcoin uses about the same amount of energy as driving to the moon in your V8 Range Rover

[/quote]

I get it will make mining bitcoin cheaper but I thought there was something more altruistic and utopian going on. if it's just about the costs of mining bitcoin I probs still don't see the point. Is it

a) It will be really cheap for miners to mine so xxxx (undefined) good will come from this
b) At least one criticism of btc (ie burning loadsa fossil fuels) will go away or
c) Some other thing

I has to know

[lucky_scrote]

I don't know this for certain but I'm pretty sure I know more about renewable energy than you do. I've probably done a similar amount of research in to renewable energy and 'green' products as you have in to crypto currencies.

You've called people on here in the past for making sweeping statements about cryptos without doing their research and now you're doing exactly the same with renewables. You've looked at a trend and used laws that were made over 50 years ago which apply to a completely different industry and come to a conclusion that we're going to get almost free energy at some point in the future.

I firmly believe we'll get to a state of close to 100% clean energy within my lifetime (I'm funking for another 40 years) but I'm under no illusions that it'll be anywhere close to free. I think it'll cost about the same as it does now, probably more.

I've gone down the 'green' route myself and installed solar panels a battery and an air source heat pump. I did an insane amount of research before deciding whether or not it was financially viable. The conclusion was that it wasn't even close but I did it anyway because it gives me a nice warm feeling. Apparently it's much better now than it used to be but it's still very shit. With subsidies it just about works but take those away and it just does not work.

I love the thought of de-centralised energy. I've got my panels and I also have a pretty Tesla battery that those panels charge up. If everybody in my local area had the same set up and we could connect to a few decent sized wind turbines as well then we'd probably have free energy for the next 20 years. Unfortunately we'd have to spend about £20k each up front (not including the wind turbines) but hey who needs to recoup their capex in Utopia.

Everyone isn't out there to make lots of money no, it's just the same 1% who have been and always will be that we have to worry about.

It's going to take some kind of cataclysmic event to level us all out and make us realise that we should actually think about each other instead of ourselves. Millenials (I hate that term) are just as bad as every generation prior. Why have you bought your cryptos? Is it because you want to encourage the de-centralisation of currencies and help us towards a better future or is it because you want to make a butt load of money? Go on, be honest.....

That's great that you have researched so much, it would have been great if you had given us some in depth thoughts about why prices of green energy will probably be the same or more expensive in the future.

BTW, I think it's great you've shared something that you have done in regards to green energy.

It's all gone off topic, probably my fault. I will stick my hand up and say that I don't know much about green energy. In fact I don't know much about anything, I am just taking what facts and theories are available to me and applying them to some future possibilities. With that, I have just been shot down which is what I expected, but anybody who makes bold statements or predictions is to expect such a thing.

Regarding your question I bought my bitcoin at the start of 2017 because I was extremely curious about the technology. The hype was pretty low at that point although there was beginning to be a little gossip in the poker industry. In the beginning I found it very exciting and was trying to increase my btc holdings by trading and buying into other projects, but as time went on my perspective changed. I mostly just hold BTC now. I hold BTC because it is the safest form of asset in the world ainec, I keep enough money in the bank to pay the rent and some bills. In the not too distant future I will be able to pay both of those with my btc anyway and I expect by then it will become very easy to have a digital wallet that trades between the pairs (and many other cryptos) very quickly. The fact that my btc will grow in value against the dollar is incidental but inevitable. BTC will continue to rise and fall, rise and fall, but the trend in the long term will always be on the up. I will not be at all surprised when btc has another insane bull run, and another one after that...and another.

[lucky_scrote]

I get it will make mining bitcoin cheaper but I thought there was something more altruistic and utopian going on. if it's just about the costs of mining bitcoin I probs still don't see the point. Is it

a) It will be really cheap for miners to mine so xxxx (undefined) good will come from this
b) At least one criticism of btc (ie burning loadsa fossil fuels) will go away or
c) Some other thing

I has to know

I don't actually know Apologies, it's completely my fault. I don't actually think the mining of a bitcoin costing a lot of energy is at all a problem, so the relation between that and talking about green energy is not what I was intending. It's my fault for being off topic.

[nirvana]

I get it will make mining bitcoin cheaper but I thought there was something more altruistic and utopian going on. if it's just about the costs of mining bitcoin I probs still don't see the point. Is it

a) It will be really cheap for miners to mine so xxxx (undefined) good will come from this
b) At least one criticism of btc (ie burning loadsa fossil fuels) will go away or
c) Some other thing

I has to know

I don't actually know Apologies, it's completely my fault. I don't actually think the mining of a bitcoin costing a lot of energy is at all a problem, so the relation between that and talking about green energy is not what I was intending. It's my fault for being off topic.

Haha, OK, thanks for putting me out of my misery :-)

[Marky147]

I've not got a penny invested, nor am I ever likely to, but I find your posts to be most informative, and appreciate the insight very much, Dan.

This and the politics thread, are two of my favourites on Blonde. If you'd told me that would be the case a few years ago, I'd have been rolling on the floor laughing.

[SuperJez]

It is possible that bitcoin one day becomes worth nothing but the same goes for the pound euro and dollar. It is possible that the economy is one day in freefall and the value of these currencies drops dramatically. It's happened before. I think the reason that a lot of people don't think this is possible is because it CAN'T fail. I mean, if it fails there is anarchy. Banks are constantly being bailed out and there were rumours last year that Deutsch bank needed a bailout last year. They lost half of their market value. If in the hypothetical situation a bank so large fails then it's hypothetically possible that there will be a domino effect.

Interestingly enough here we are a year on and Deutsche Bank is looking in extremely ropy shape.  The share price is flirting with all time lows, already worse than at the depths of the GFC.  Could there be another state bailout?  Would be extremely unpopular and costly for Merkel.

https://global.handelsblatt.com/finance/deutsche-banks-latest-stock-tumble-isnt-just-italy-929434

[acegooner]

It is possible that bitcoin one day becomes worth nothing but the same goes for the pound euro and dollar. It is possible that the economy is one day in freefall and the value of these currencies drops dramatically. It's happened before. I think the reason that a lot of people don't think this is possible is because it CAN'T fail. I mean, if it fails there is anarchy. Banks are constantly being bailed out and there were rumours last year that Deutsch bank needed a bailout last year. They lost half of their market value. If in the hypothetical situation a bank so large fails then it's hypothetically possible that there will be a domino effect.

Interestingly enough here we are a year on and Deutsche Bank is looking in extremely ropy shape.  The share price is flirting with all time lows, already worse than at the depths of the GFC.  Could there be another state bailout?  Would be extremely unpopular and costly for Merkel.

https://global.handelsblatt.com/finance/deutsche-banks-latest-stock-tumble-isnt-just-italy-929434

Deutsche Bank isn't really a retail bank like Lloyds or RBS, they focus on wealth management, private and business banking and asset management. They are more like Lehman Bros, and if they did collapse because the other banks are not leveraged in the same way as in 2008/09 I cannot see any contagion occurring where markets/economies go into free fall. It would be a disaster for Germany though, especially as Frankfurt is vying for business that London will relinquish post Brexit. 

Bitcoin, is infinitely more likely to fall to zero or close than any established economies currency.

[Longines]

I think a stronger argument for open source is that if you have 100 engineers working for the best AI company in the world vs a project that is open to everyone in the world to create AI, the open source project will be better. In the former, you have a system where a small group or even one person decides what is best, in the latter quite simply the people choose what is best. Just like with the bitcoin network, if someone creates something better then they will simply choose that.

In that case, why do 99% of the world's devices run software from Microsoft, Google and Apple rather than Linux? The latter is completely open source and free, been around for decades and has thousands of developers choosing what is best.

[Longines]

PS I totally agree that blockchain is going to be as transformative as the WWW, just don't think cryptos will be.

[lucky_scrote]

I've not got a penny invested, nor am I ever likely to, but I find your posts to be most informative, and appreciate the insight very much, Dan.

This and the politics thread, are two of my favourites on Blonde. If you'd told me that would be the case a few years ago, I'd have been rolling on the floor laughing.

Thanks, but when I look over some of my first posts I cringe . It's a learning process for us all!

In that case, why do 99% of the world's devices run software from Microsoft, Google and Apple rather than Linux? The latter is completely open source and free, been around for decades and has thousands of developers choosing what is best.

I'm gonna take a stab at this (do I need to disclaim everything I'm not certain of now?). Microsoft, Google and Apple are built for dumb users. Dumb users are most people because computers are difficult and confusing. People that create complex software where it is absolutely imperative that everything is open to scrutiny such as the air industry, NASA, self driving cars etc will be using linux. BTW cash machines still use windows XL.

PS I totally agree that blockchain is going to be as transformative as the WWW, just don't think cryptos will be.

*Puffs cheeks* I'm gonna do my best to explain why this isn't the case another time. A blockchain on it's own doesn't mean much, it's just a ledger and isn't immutable. I have said it time and time again but immutability is the greatest asset to bitcoin.

[Jon MW]

In that case, why do 99% of the world's devices run software from Microsoft, Google and Apple rather than Linux? The latter is completely open source and free, been around for decades and has thousands of developers choosing what is best.

I'm gonna take a stab at this (do I need to disclaim everything I'm not certain of now?). Microsoft, Google and Apple are built for dumb users. Dumb users are most people because computers are difficult and confusing. People that create complex software where it is absolutely imperative that everything is open to scrutiny such as the air industry, NASA, self driving cars etc will be using linux. BTW cash machines still use windows XL.

...

I would suggest it's probably more to do with the idea that when you have a technical problem with a technical solution it's not the quantity of minds working on it that matters - it's the quality of them.

That's why wikipedia can rely on it's content to come from it's army of volunteers; but why it pays people to deal with the structure and underlying algorithms.

Open Office is a good example of what you get when you rely on open sourcing - it's perfectly functional; but it's never going to be the best.