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Author Topic: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin)  (Read 302052 times)
acegooner
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« Reply #870 on: February 03, 2018, 10:12:57 AM »

This is a gambling website and crypto is fun to gamble on. I wouldn't go onto the T4T thread and start telling them not to bet sports:)

We seem to have gone from "there are no fundamentals, this stuff is impossible to value" to "this stuff is ridiculously overvalued". If a whole bunch of people are currently paying $8500 for a bitcoin then that's what it's worth.   

Whether we are getting massive market manipulation from spoofy, bitfinex, tether however is very interesting and worthy of discussion.

The argument that I find most persuasive for BTC is that we are heading towards a cashless society and if your bank account gets shut down for any reason (weren't HSBC closing pro gamblers accounts a while ago?) or you want to make any kind of anonymous transaction BTC or something like it might come in very useful.

Acegooner genuinely interested to know your thoughts about whether it's better to be in cash or gold when stock markets are falling. Trading God that I am I sold my crypto trackers for a mighty £100 profit and have now got a few spare grand in my SIPP doing nothing. Lots of people saying it's good to be holding cash ATM though.



And you have hit the nail right on the head. It is what people are prepared to pay for it, but it doesn't make it good value.

With regards to stock market diversification. I hold 8% of my portfolio currently in cash, 10% in bonds and 10% in gold through a physical ETF. The rest is in equities. As I mentioned earlier, gold is a good hedge against equities. That is to say when the stock markets go into a bear market, invariably gold tends to go the other way.

The problem with holding cash as opposed to Gold, is that in real terms it loses value. That is because interest rates on deposits at present are much lower than the rate of inflation. Gold is seen as a good hedge against inflation (at least it has been in the past).

Thanks for the reply. SGLN still the cheapest physical gold ETF at 0.25%? I did have some a few years ago but got bored with it and sold at a loss. More proof of my trading Godliness.

Yeah I hold SGLN.
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SuperJez
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« Reply #871 on: February 03, 2018, 10:21:44 AM »

Quote from: acegooner
none of you can accept what some highly successful investment guru's have said about crypto's. That in my opinion is nothing short of sheer arrogance.

Warren Buffett famously hates gold of course

http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Warren-Buffett-brka-gold-investing-investing/10/3/2012/id/44617

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-best-advice-and-why-he-doesnt-own-gold-1503115174.

Everyone has agenda's with bitcoin.  It is telling to me that out of everyone that talks on the subject who's recognised around the globe all the pro bitcoin types are people that changed the world like Bill Gates, Richard Branson.  All the anti bitcoin types seem to be proponents of central banking or stand to lose something if bitcoins succeed.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2018, 10:31:48 AM by SuperJez » Logged
acegooner
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« Reply #872 on: February 03, 2018, 10:52:46 AM »

Quote from: acegooner
none of you can accept what some highly successful investment guru's have said about crypto's. That in my opinion is nothing short of sheer arrogance.

Warren Buffett famously hates gold of course

http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Warren-Buffett-brka-gold-investing-investing/10/3/2012/id/44617

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-best-advice-and-why-he-doesnt-own-gold-1503115174.

Everyone has agenda's with bitcoin.  It is telling to me that out of everyone that talks on the subject who's recognised around the globe all the pro bitcoin types are people that changed the world like Bill Gates, Richard Branson.  All the anti bitcoin types seem to be proponents of central banking or stand to lose something if bitcoins succeed.

Buffet advocates 30% cash in the present market, Gold is nowhere near as volatile as BTC and if you look at the long term performance of gold versus cash and inflation, it has easily outperformed over the last 10 years, and that is despite a 30% retracement from the peak. The price is up 7x since Gordon Brown decided to cash his chips in around 15 years ago. Bill Gross on the other hand wholeheartedly advocates having gold within a structured portfolio.

Asset allocation is something that varies from one person to the next, it depends on so many factors.
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Whollyflush
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« Reply #873 on: February 03, 2018, 11:20:50 AM »

Acegooner you are absolutely insufferable at this point
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acegooner
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« Reply #874 on: February 03, 2018, 11:40:42 AM »

Acegooner you are absolutely insufferable at this point

For being contrarian? I refer to my previous quote.......
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Doobs
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« Reply #875 on: February 03, 2018, 12:22:32 PM »

Quote from: acegooner
none of you can accept what some highly successful investment guru's have said about crypto's. That in my opinion is nothing short of sheer arrogance.

Warren Buffett famously hates gold of course

http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Warren-Buffett-brka-gold-investing-investing/10/3/2012/id/44617

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-best-advice-and-why-he-doesnt-own-gold-1503115174.

Everyone has agenda's with bitcoin.  It is telling to me that out of everyone that talks on the subject who's recognised around the globe all the pro bitcoin types are people that changed the world like Bill Gates, Richard Branson.  All the anti bitcoin types seem to be proponents of central banking or stand to lose something if bitcoins succeed.

Buffet advocates 30% cash in the present market, Gold is nowhere near as volatile as BTC and if you look at the long term performance of gold versus cash and inflation, it has easily outperformed over the last 10 years, and that is despite a 30% retracement from the peak. The price is up 7x since Gordon Brown decided to cash his chips in around 15 years ago. Bill Gross on the other hand wholeheartedly advocates having gold within a structured portfolio.

Asset allocation is something that varies from one person to the next, it depends on so many factors.


Why would you want to buy an asset that has very little intrinsic value that has outperformed so much recently?  Having said that, there is a bias in your choice of investment period, so it renders any argument relating to it redundant.  For instance, I could say Gold is still value as it peaked at $850 in 1980 and is now only $1333 all thos years later, hence massively underperforming inflation and cash.

I think cash is a way better asset, simply because it is more stable.

FWIW 1333/275 is less than 5x.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999%E2%80%932002  .   The UK eventually sold about 395 tons of gold over 17 auctions from July 1999 to March 2002, at an average price of about US$275 per ounce

Too many terrible maths calculations in this thread.

And for SuperJez, very few anti-bitcoin types have any real agenda, the attacks on them are simply made up to undermine people who genuinely think it has not much/no intrinsic value at all.  It was pretty much the same in the tech boom many years ago, every negative poster was discredited as a de-ramper or a technology philistine of some sort.  Everything changes, everything stays the same.

If bitcoin, or some cryptocurremcy either becomes a cheaper to transfer money abroad etc or forces banks to make it cheaper to transfer money abroad etc  then surely I win?  I can also see how I could lose if it means lots of people avoid paying taxes etc?  But overall, I have no real skin in the game.

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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #876 on: February 03, 2018, 12:30:20 PM »

Gooner we get it mate you're a successful guy and you know about investing.

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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #877 on: February 03, 2018, 01:30:34 PM »

I wonder how many people that understand the tech of cryptocurrency and bitcoin and have no real agenda have a negative outlook on the future of cryptocurrencies? We have people who are in important positions of the finance world who know a lot about how the current economy and banking system works, and we have a lot of people who have been successful with investments and predictions about markets for their entire lives. It seems collectively the ones that fall into this category that don't have a good understanding of cryptocurrencies, are the only ones that have a negative outlook on cryptocurrencies.

I think it's important to be constructive because there are so many problems and concerns with crypto, I am not delusional to this fact. If the end game for bitcoin or another cryptocurrency to replace the fiat system, we would need to overcome so many problems that it is borderline laughable to even bring up the subject. It would most definitely require a revolution. A revolution is a struggle to the death between the future and the past.
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Marky147
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« Reply #878 on: February 03, 2018, 02:32:06 PM »

It's impossible to have a debate with you
 


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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #879 on: February 03, 2018, 04:00:08 PM »

Everything is dumb because of the name cryptocurrency. No "crypto" in its current form will replace the fiat banking system and personally I think its a pretty dumb idea. I like bitcoin as a decentralised store of value, with the addition of being able to transact from places not connected to the traditional banking system. I think the idea of buying coffee with bitcoin is one of the stupidest things around and I think the larger group of cryptocurrencies is incredibly dumb, highly speculative and simply unnecessary. However, technological innovation is exciting, the decentralisation behind blockchains is really interesting and even the ICOs have some innovation, spreading the capital requirements of a startup across multiple people.

However, most of these projects are not decentralised. Most of the projects will not survive in the long run. I hold a significant number of projects I feel have a long term value of zero, or close to zero so I can sympathize with Acegooner, but his bias's are pretty obvious and it ruins this topic, and has continued to do so. His arguments largely come from generic statements and if I hear Buffet mentioned again I might burst into tears. He's regularly stated he thinks its a bubble for the last several years (article linked from 2014), but he seems to think bitcoin is a payment system, and the mainstream media are too lazy to seperate the assets. It seems silly to me to group Bitcoin and some of the shitty recent icos in the same "cryptocurrency" category. People involved in crypto certainly don't.


https://www.coindesk.com/legg-masons-bill-miller-buffett-wrong-bitcoin/


Everyone needs to zoom out a little bit and get some dam perspective.

We hit lows not seen since late November.

The market is unregulated and therefore we have to assume manipulated, at least to some degree. (see Korean officials insider trading the ban to things like Spoofy)


Here is the best piece of work I have found on Cryptoassets and it is largely the long term view I subscribe to, which funnily enough is probably closer to Acegooner then he would realise. I only really believe in Bitcoin for the long term so I completely understand the cryptocurrency bubble perspective but I would highly recommend any investor to put a small piece of their portfolio into Bitcoin. Perhaps you could argue that the risk to return ratio at the current price isn't so great, but as the world becomes to accept Bitcoin as its own asset class, which I believe the CME/CBOE futures as well as current price indicates, not holding Bitcoin increases volatility of your portfolio dramatically. Scaling in steadily, perhaps with 33% of your position invested now after the recent drop in price, with a plan to pick up the next pieces over the next 2-5 years, depending on when the next bear market appears for Bitcoin. This is particularly important due to the early stages of the marketplace and the number of naive investors within the market that are chasing such returns. Further diversification may be required, but 99% of other cryptocurrencies are extremely correlated, and I can understand an investor not wanting to play a game of chicken with altcoins. I suspect when that bubble pops properly, which may not occur this year, many coins will go to 0. This isn't to say bitcoin isn't also correlated, but long term I believe it will separate itself from the majority.

"In contrast, the potential value of a winning monetary store of value protocol can be
measured in relation to the total value of gold bullion and foreign reserves, suggesting a
potential value in the USD 4.7 – 14.6 trillion range. If Bitcoin were to become that monetary
store of value (and it currently appears to be the strongest contender by some margin), it
could be worth USD 260,000 – 800,000 per BTC, i.e., 20 – 60x its current value. If one
places a higher than ~5% chance of Bitcoin succeeding in this way, it is a rational and
attractive investment for a long-term investor before considering other potential upsides
stemming from payments and unit of account utility"

Quote from a long term investment thesis written by John Pfeffer, not sure if he is well known but its the best analysis I have seen.
https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf

Finally 150 words by kadhim.shubber a writer for the Financial Times

 Click to see full-size image.


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typhoon13
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« Reply #880 on: February 03, 2018, 07:29:48 PM »


Cryptos.....will it won't it,will it won't it, will it won't it

Store of value
Investment
Scam
Long or Short
Regulation
Manipulation
And any other thing anyone wants to argue about

Its unique, its new, its got no history to compare

Everyone can harp on all they like BUT nobody knows till it actually happens, boom or bust

Thats what makes the market, the usual difference of opinions, buyers versus sellers
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #881 on: February 04, 2018, 07:52:36 AM »

great post Adz thank you

I know people who think BTC is a plain scam/ponzi scheme/get-rich-quick-trick and I could put a shotgun to their head and they would not change their minds, I also know a couple of people who are 90%+ net worth in BTC and if I offered to buy the whole stock at 15%+ I don't think they would sell me any.  The global financial market, which I do not really understand all that well, is somewhat old fashioned - the bones of it have been the same for centuries, i know it innovates as time progress like anything, but never has anything like BITCOIN happened to it before, the young pup has burst into the directors board with all the 40yr career guys and is just fucking things up, its fresh, it's exciting, it's totally unique and whether it explodes to the point where i'm telling my grandkids "you won't believe I bought one of those BTC things for £2500!" or if it blows up and leaves an almighty mess behind it.... I have no real idea and somewhat lost for an opinion I can stick behind, what i do feel very confident about is that BTC is gonna leave a big mark on the global financial market, a market stifled in regulation and tradition - and wether i make £1m from BITCOIN or end up selling them for £55 a go, I think it's fascinating and I'm delighted i got lucky enough to have some small involvement in it.

If I had to be pressed for an opinion, I would mirror Adam's thoughts that BTC is gonna survive in some way (be it in a dominant manner or if it continues to just live at the shadows) most of the nonsense coins will gg and I think over the next 20 years governments are going to incorporate blockchain technology into their fiscal strategy.

Important to remember too, and I think Acegooner touched a lot on this, as monumental a splash as BTC has made last 14 months... it's still absolutely tiny the grand scheme of these global financial instruments.
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acegooner
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« Reply #882 on: February 05, 2018, 07:36:15 AM »

Quote from: acegooner
none of you can accept what some highly successful investment guru's have said about crypto's. That in my opinion is nothing short of sheer arrogance.

Warren Buffett famously hates gold of course

http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Warren-Buffett-brka-gold-investing-investing/10/3/2012/id/44617

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-best-advice-and-why-he-doesnt-own-gold-1503115174.

Everyone has agenda's with bitcoin.  It is telling to me that out of everyone that talks on the subject who's recognised around the globe all the pro bitcoin types are people that changed the world like Bill Gates, Richard Branson.  All the anti bitcoin types seem to be proponents of central banking or stand to lose something if bitcoins succeed.

Buffet advocates 30% cash in the present market, Gold is nowhere near as volatile as BTC and if you look at the long term performance of gold versus cash and inflation, it has easily outperformed over the last 10 years, and that is despite a 30% retracement from the peak. The price is up 7x since Gordon Brown decided to cash his chips in around 15 years ago. Bill Gross on the other hand wholeheartedly advocates having gold within a structured portfolio.

Asset allocation is something that varies from one person to the next, it depends on so many factors.


Why would you want to buy an asset that has very little intrinsic value that has outperformed so much recently?  Having said that, there is a bias in your choice of investment period, so it renders any argument relating to it redundant.  For instance, I could say Gold is still value as it peaked at $850 in 1980 and is now only $1333 all thos years later, hence massively underperforming inflation and cash.

I think cash is a way better asset, simply because it is more stable.

FWIW 1333/275 is less than 5x.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sale_of_UK_gold_reserves,_1999%E2%80%932002  .   The UK eventually sold about 395 tons of gold over 17 auctions from July 1999 to March 2002, at an average price of about US$275 per ounce

Too many terrible maths calculations in this thread.

And for SuperJez, very few anti-bitcoin types have any real agenda, the attacks on them are simply made up to undermine people who genuinely think it has not much/no intrinsic value at all.  It was pretty much the same in the tech boom many years ago, every negative poster was discredited as a de-ramper or a technology philistine of some sort.  Everything changes, everything stays the same.

If bitcoin, or some cryptocurremcy either becomes a cheaper to transfer money abroad etc or forces banks to make it cheaper to transfer money abroad etc  then surely I win?  I can also see how I could lose if it means lots of people avoid paying taxes etc?  But overall, I have no real skin in the game.



You are taking the maths too seriously with regards to Gordons gaff. Not only that in 1980 the average price of gold was nowhere near $850, it was around $600. Even then it increased nearly 20x over the previous decade. So you are taking a near-term peak at a time when not only the UK but the world went through a period of high inflation and monetary stress.

So I revert to my comment about gold being a good hedge against inflation and diversifier in a balanced portfolio, because it is. Look at any well known multi-asset fund (eg Troy Trojan with £4bn under management), and they will have a significant exposure to gold.

Cash whilst it may be more stable is losing real value every year that interest/deposit rates lag behind the rate of inflation. That isn't to say it's a bad idea to hold a small proportion of cash when the markets are as high as they are right now, it gives the opportunity to buy some quality stocks/funds when the market pulls back.
 


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tikay
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« Reply #883 on: February 05, 2018, 08:53:37 AM »



Lloyds Bank bans Bitcoin purchases via Credit Card.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42940728
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acegooner
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« Reply #884 on: February 05, 2018, 09:31:59 AM »



Lloyds Bank bans Bitcoin purchases via Credit Card.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42940728

You know why Lloyds are doing this Tikay. I heard that they are scared of people buying scam coins and putting in section 75 claims, which are designed to protect the consumer. Several US banks have taken similar measures.
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