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Author Topic: Strictly Come Dancing 2017 thread  (Read 2046 times)
Tal
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« Reply #30 on: November 11, 2017, 08:59:27 PM »

Good lad, Davood.

Legogogo!
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« Reply #31 on: November 11, 2017, 09:23:32 PM »

Good lad, Davood.

Legogogo!

The lad done well.  I did try and back him again whilst he was dancing, but was too slow.  At last he is shorter than the first price I took.  33s long gone too.

Alex very good again.

Mollie doesn't seem to be taking it well.  I think she is still pretty likely to be bottom two again. 
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Tal
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« Reply #32 on: November 11, 2017, 10:00:00 PM »

Good lad, Davood.

Legogogo!

The lad done well.  I did try and back him again whilst he was dancing, but was too slow.  At last he is shorter than the first price I took.  33s long gone too.

Alex very good again.

Mollie doesn't seem to be taking it well.  I think she is still pretty likely to be bottom two again. 

Yeah. Shame for her, but she's not improved as much as the others.
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« Reply #33 on: November 13, 2017, 05:21:53 AM »

Good lad, Davood.

Legogogo!

Nice write up Tal. What do you think of the 11/1 top 3 1/5? 8 runners but I'm sure we could discount a few of those. Slightly better price than bf.
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« Reply #34 on: November 13, 2017, 08:41:08 AM »

Good lad, Davood.

Legogogo!

Nice write up Tal. What do you think of the 11/1 top 3 1/5? 8 runners but I'm sure we could discount a few of those. Slightly better price than bf.

I'd like to oppose Debbie and Alexandra, but I am not sure most of the rest are popular enough.  If those two make it and the bottom three are write offs, you are betting 7/5, 7/5, 11/5 that 3rd place.  Given what happened to Anton, neither can be a lock, but those pricrs don't scream value.  I think 7/5 Joe must be better than 11/5 Davood as he has just been more popular throughout.   
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« Reply #35 on: November 13, 2017, 04:55:44 PM »

Good lad, Davood.

Legogogo!

Nice write up Tal. What do you think of the 11/1 top 3 1/5? 8 runners but I'm sure we could discount a few of those. Slightly better price than bf.

I'd like to oppose Debbie and Alexandra, but I am not sure most of the rest are popular enough.  If those two make it and the bottom three are write offs, you are betting 7/5, 7/5, 11/5 that 3rd place.  Given what happened to Anton, neither can be a lock, but those pricrs don't scream value.  I think 7/5 Joe must be better than 11/5 Davood as he has just been more popular throughout.   

Thanks Doobs
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Tal
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« Reply #36 on: November 14, 2017, 09:05:08 PM »

Alex and Gorka will Quickstep to The Gold Diggers’ Song (We’re In The Money) from ‘42nd Street’

Debbie and Giovanni perform the Samba to Spice Girls Medley (Wannabe / Who Do You Think You Are)

Gemma and Aljaz dance the American Smooth to Downtown by Petula Clark

Mollie and AJ will perform the Charleston to Wings by Little Mix

Susan and Kevin Paso Doble to Scott & Fran’s Paso Doble from ‘Strictly Ballroom’

Davood and Nadiya will also Paso Doble to Live And Let Die by Paul McCartney and Wings

Joe and Katya dance the Salsa to Ride On Time by Black Box

Jonnie and Oti will Tango to Sweet Dreams by Eurythmics


I'll say more on the significance of the Blackpool Tower Ballroom later in the week, when time permits.

Fair to say some have lucked out with the music (Alex, Jonnie) and some have not (Mollie, Gemma). Lord only knows what the producers were smoking when they decided on Little Mix.

Debbie's got an odd draw, too. It could work, with the girl power angle, but neither of those songs is a samba (where Spice Up Your Life is, queerly).

Only two traditional, strict tempo songs, which is disappointing.

Kevin said he'd been hoping to do this dance for years and has finally been allowed the chance by the Strictly Suits. Frankly, I am smiling already at the prospect of that.

Early prediction without seeing any training video: Jonnie bests Mollie in a dance off, by majority vote.
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« Reply #37 on: November 14, 2017, 10:31:48 PM »

Any value in Davood to be top man at 2/1?

Basically needs to beat Joe who is 4/5.
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Tal
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« Reply #38 on: November 15, 2017, 06:55:42 AM »

Any value in Davood to be top man at 2/1?

Basically needs to beat Joe who is 4/5.

Of the two, I prefer his price, but Joe has been popular, I think. The 2/1 top man aligns with the 10/1 to win with 3 places 1/5. Probably not massively out of line; these are the two best outsiders.
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Tal
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« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2017, 08:50:58 AM »

Susan Calman and Jonnie Peacock confirmed for the tour. Any others?
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Tal
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« Reply #40 on: November 18, 2017, 10:13:07 AM »

Seasoned Strictlyites will already be familiar with the Blackpool Tower Ballroom. It used to be where the final was held.

There are two significant differences.

The first is the size of the floor. It's huge. Much bigger than the Elsteee studio they're used to. Amateur dancers take much smaller steps than professionals. Next time the pros do their dance, notice how well they cover the floor. All the celebs will struggle to get around the floor, so the couples will be getting backing dancers and props, so that they don't look dwarfed by the expanse of the ballroom floor. In short, it masks the inadeqacies of the amateurs, so when you hear "you looked like a professional" groin the cooing judges, feel free to shout a disapproving vulgarity at the screen.

The second thing is the springiness of the floor. This is the ultimate test of technique. If you have your foot in the wrong place, in ballroom or latin, you will suffer markedly. The spring finds you out. You will see people not travelling in ballroom and readjusting their feet when planted in latin and losing hip action. It's simply impossible to cover things up and I expect the public to have a better idea of who's good...if they're watching the dancing.

Top: Alexandra has had the nut draw on music and dance. She's very likely to be in the top two or three.

Surprise package: Watch out for Gemma, whose frame is much, much better than when she started. Her training footage showed lovely heel turns and impeccable footwork. She needs to relax but I think she might surprise a few tonight.

Bottom: Jonnie has bottom issues of another kind. His sticks out. He can't help it, but he has sprinter's bum and it'll be a problem in the tango tonight. I am not expecting good things.

Possible joiner: Joe doesn't look good in training. I'm hoping his salsa will be better than that. I expect him to have good footwork, but this is hardly the dance you want on a week where everything is very exposed.

Predictions

- Debbie will disappoint with a low 30s score.
- Davood's Paso (which is too quick) be overshadowed by the extreme campness of Susan's, though he will score higher
- Mollie will get enough public votes to avoid the dance off. She can swivel and the judges will be kinder.
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Tal
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« Reply #41 on: November 18, 2017, 11:48:06 PM »

Anyone else back Gemma to get the highest score tonight?

I got 7/1, though suspect others might have done better.

So close.
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« Reply #42 on: November 19, 2017, 11:53:21 AM »

Anyone else back Gemma to get the highest score tonight?

I got 7/1, though suspect others might have done better.

So close.

I thought she was very good.  I was quite suprised Alexandra didn't get 40.  I was pretty sure when watching, I thought she was pretty good.  Davood also looked very goodf again.  Joe looked all over the place to me.

Have you noticed how the bookies are now suspending the betting from the Saturday show until Sunday.  Betfair have suspended for a long time.  Bookies get the opportunity to bet on something when people can't arb easily, and we all have a level playing field, and have chosen to duck it.   Pretty much shows that these days they are more reliant on the betfair market than the likes of us.  It is probably best to suspend between 10 and 12 on a Saturday night, but there is no excuse to not be betting righrt now.
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Tal
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« Reply #43 on: November 19, 2017, 12:25:10 PM »

Anyone else back Gemma to get the highest score tonight?

I got 7/1, though suspect others might have done better.

So close.

I thought she was very good.  I was quite suprised Alexandra didn't get 40.  I was pretty sure when watching, I thought she was pretty good.  Davood also looked very goodf again.  Joe looked all over the place to me.

Have you noticed how the bookies are now suspending the betting from the Saturday show until Sunday.  Betfair have suspended for a long time.  Bookies get the opportunity to bet on something when people can't arb easily, and we all have a level playing field, and have chosen to duck it.   Pretty much shows that these days they are more reliant on the betfair market than the likes of us.  It is probably best to suspend between 10 and 12 on a Saturday night, but there is no excuse to not be betting righrt now.

Completely agree on the bookies, although granted I avoid that part of oddschecker like the plague on Sundays.

I wish there were the markets there used to be a few years ago with other bookies (highest score, some individual score markets, bottom score). We could have had some fun with that this year.

Alexandra should have got 40 really. It's a world of difference, though, getting a correctly timed, appropriate song in ballroom dress and with everything in your favour, to getting to salsa to a 90s house tune in tracky bottoms or having to paso to a song that's too quick or doing a samba to two spice girls songs that aren't sambas, or a tango to a song with a beat so pronounced an amateur is always going to stomp a little.

What irks me more than anything about that is she's the best dancer in the competition and doesn't need any help. The tears were back last night, though. It's not endearing, even if genuine. It does seem certain now that she makes the final. But it's far from certain she wins: the ability to choose what you do gives the advantage to the best choreographers and coaches. Gorka hasn't impressed me much, though he's done little wrong. Nadiya has been aggressive, Giovanni has more experience and Katya is a known excellent, imaginative choreographer. Then there's Aljaž, who's been there and done it. And the public of course.

Davood and Gemma have absolutely outstanding fundamentals. They're being taught to dance, which means they can apply themselves in any situation. It was noticeable how far Gemma travelled. She's tall, but she stepped out and drove off on the first beat of the bar (well, slightly off it, as you do in foxtrot). Jonnie in comparison couldn't do that because his frame and posture won't allow it.

The gulf is pretty clear now. Joe gets a mulligan this week, assuming he survives. He won't have to worry about salsa again.
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