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Author Topic: The world cup  (Read 55345 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #330 on: July 08, 2018, 02:28:15 PM »


Looks like they’ve had 4 shots on target in the last ~5 hours they’ve played. They’ll certainly need to make them count from now.

Is it coming home though

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Ant040689
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« Reply #331 on: July 08, 2018, 02:33:00 PM »

It would be lovely for Sterling to score in both games and to take the World cup down, perhaps a winner in either. There would be a certain poetry to that, however unlikely.
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #332 on: July 08, 2018, 02:45:57 PM »

It would be lovely for Sterling to score in both games and to take the World cup down, perhaps a winner in either. There would be a certain poetry to that, however unlikely.

Some of the muppets I have to suffer in my local, they give me the impression that if Sterling was to miss an easy chance in the final and we then lost (for example), they would almost be pleased as it further adds to their Sterling agenda. There is one dickhead in particular who really doesn't have a clue at how important Raheem is to this set up, and is quite happily adding up the games since Sterling last scored for England.

Alongside Pickford, he was comfortably our best player yesterday. The video Archer linked explains his role in the team well. You'd have to be a real football simpleton to think Rashford (or whoever) should be starting ahead of Sterling.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #333 on: July 08, 2018, 03:31:01 PM »


Looks like they’ve had 4 shots on target in the last ~5 hours they’ve played. They’ll certainly need to make them count from now.

Is it coming home though


I’d say they are probably as overrated by the market now as they have been at any stage, so I’ll go with no. Just an amazing stat for a team that is winning and scoring some goals though.
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« Reply #334 on: July 08, 2018, 04:34:01 PM »

Fans having a bit more fun, bless em.


https://metro.co.uk/2018/07/07/england-fans-trample-london-ambulance-celebrations-turn-wild-7691618/
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Doobs
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« Reply #335 on: July 08, 2018, 04:54:07 PM »


Looks like they’ve had 4 shots on target in the last ~5 hours they’ve played. They’ll certainly need to make them count from now.

Is it coming home though


I’d say they are probably as overrated by the market now as they have been at any stage, so I’ll go with no. Just an amazing stat for a team that is winning and scoring some goals though.

So amazing it isn't right.   Looks like 6 to me, but 5 hours includes the game where we played the seconds and maybe didn't try as hard as we could, and excludes the game we won 6-1 and the first game where we had 8.  Sure 5 hours is just a coincidence and wasn't just chosen to make a point.   

Just short of 3/1 with betfair looks about right for a team that is a significant favourite for the semi, and will likely be a similar dog in the final.   It might be a little short, but isn't wildly out.  I am not going to rush to take the 9/4 with Victor. It isn't like he'd lay me anyway.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #336 on: July 08, 2018, 05:08:11 PM »


Looks like they’ve had 4 shots on target in the last ~5 hours they’ve played. They’ll certainly need to make them count from now.

Is it coming home though


I’d say they are probably as overrated by the market now as they have been at any stage, so I’ll go with no. Just an amazing stat for a team that is winning and scoring some goals though.

So amazing it isn't right.   Looks like 6 to me, but 5 hours includes the game where we played the seconds and maybe didn't try as hard as we could, and excludes the game we won 6-1 and the first game where we had 8.  Sure 5 hours is just a coincidence and wasn't just chosen to make a point.   

Just short of 3/1 with betfair looks about right for a team that is a significant favourite for the semi, and will likely be a similar dog in the final.   It might be a little short, but isn't wildly out.  I am not going to rush to take the 9/4 with Victor. It isn't like he'd lay me anyway.


2 against Sweden, 2 against Colombia and the 2 against Belgium were in the first 30 mins, so outside the stipulated timeframe. I think 4 is right and it’s like 4 hours 53 with one extra time and the all the injury time.
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Doobs
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« Reply #337 on: July 08, 2018, 05:36:40 PM »


Looks like they’ve had 4 shots on target in the last ~5 hours they’ve played. They’ll certainly need to make them count from now.

Is it coming home though


I’d say they are probably as overrated by the market now as they have been at any stage, so I’ll go with no. Just an amazing stat for a team that is winning and scoring some goals though.

So amazing it isn't right.   Looks like 6 to me, but 5 hours includes the game where we played the seconds and maybe didn't try as hard as we could, and excludes the game we won 6-1 and the first game where we had 8.  Sure 5 hours is just a coincidence and wasn't just chosen to make a point.   

Just short of 3/1 with betfair looks about right for a team that is a significant favourite for the semi, and will likely be a similar dog in the final.   It might be a little short, but isn't wildly out.  I am not going to rush to take the 9/4 with Victor. It isn't like he'd lay me anyway.


2 against Sweden, 2 against Colombia and the 2 against Belgium were in the first 30 mins, so outside the stipulated timeframe. I think 4 is right and it’s like 4 hours 53 with one extra time and the all the injury time.

It is an abuse of stats, as the duration has been especially chosen to favour a specious argument.  In the circumstances, the only thing amazing about it is that you have continue to argue about it after somebody has pointed it how flawed this kind of reasoning is.  So in the whole comp they likely had 20 odd shots on target, which doesn't feel amazingly low at all. 


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« Reply #338 on: July 08, 2018, 05:57:20 PM »

Shamelessly nicked from Twitter:

Why do England have three lions on their shirt? I've been to England and they don't have any lions there.

They should have three arseholes on their shirt, there's plenty of them there.
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« Reply #339 on: July 08, 2018, 06:03:30 PM »


Looks like they’ve had 4 shots on target in the last ~5 hours they’ve played. They’ll certainly need to make them count from now.

Is it coming home though


I’d say they are probably as overrated by the market now as they have been at any stage, so I’ll go with no. Just an amazing stat for a team that is winning and scoring some goals though.

So amazing it isn't right.   Looks like 6 to me, but 5 hours includes the game where we played the seconds and maybe didn't try as hard as we could, and excludes the game we won 6-1 and the first game where we had 8.  Sure 5 hours is just a coincidence and wasn't just chosen to make a point.   

Just short of 3/1 with betfair looks about right for a team that is a significant favourite for the semi, and will likely be a similar dog in the final.   It might be a little short, but isn't wildly out.  I am not going to rush to take the 9/4 with Victor. It isn't like he'd lay me anyway.


2 against Sweden, 2 against Colombia and the 2 against Belgium were in the first 30 mins, so outside the stipulated timeframe. I think 4 is right and it’s like 4 hours 53 with one extra time and the all the injury time.

It is an abuse of stats, as the duration has been especially chosen to favour a specious argument.  In the circumstances, the only thing amazing about it is that you have continue to argue about it after somebody has pointed it how flawed this kind of reasoning is.  So in the whole comp they likely had 20 odd shots on target, which doesn't feel amazingly low at all. 


That seems like a crazy overreaction. I’m certainly not arguing though, it just seemed like a reasonable and potentially helpful thing to do to explain what I meant, the most recent ~5 hours seemed relevant. I agree it misrepresents the situation to some extent by going back to exactly the fifth last attempt on target.  My apologies if it pissed you off.
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« Reply #340 on: July 08, 2018, 08:45:34 PM »

I just watched the game again because I couldn't focus on it fully yesterday.

Wanted to say that Sterling was probably our best player yesterday and see a few others have got there before me. Would have loved to see him get a goal


I think we have all let out numerous groans when sterling has not taken advantage of great situations thus far, but in betting parlance, variance will take over very soon and he will click.

I will sure back him for anytime scorer next game, he is almost playing the number position and getting in all the best positions.

Kane seems to be burdened by the captains role and tracking back too often for my liking and raheem seems to be our last man most of the time.
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« Reply #341 on: July 09, 2018, 09:17:26 AM »



Jeff Kimber and 2 others liked


 Simon‏ @clashboy23 · Jul 7 


Sterling.
Pulled there defence apart, made space. Had a great game.
This is the reason Ex pro Southgate is in charge of the team and not Del from accounts who thinks he has a good knowledge of football because he watches 2 games on a Sunday and is 3rd in his dream team league.

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #342 on: July 09, 2018, 09:51:31 AM »



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 Simon‏ @clashboy23 · Jul 7 


Sterling.
Pulled there defence apart, made space. Had a great game.
This is the reason Ex pro Southgate is in charge of the team and not Del from accounts who thinks he has a good knowledge of football because he watches 2 games on a Sunday and is 3rd in his dream team league.



Morning, love this :-).
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Doobs
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« Reply #343 on: July 09, 2018, 10:26:40 AM »


Looks like they’ve had 4 shots on target in the last ~5 hours they’ve played. They’ll certainly need to make them count from now.

Is it coming home though


I’d say they are probably as overrated by the market now as they have been at any stage, so I’ll go with no. Just an amazing stat for a team that is winning and scoring some goals though.

So amazing it isn't right.   Looks like 6 to me, but 5 hours includes the game where we played the seconds and maybe didn't try as hard as we could, and excludes the game we won 6-1 and the first game where we had 8.  Sure 5 hours is just a coincidence and wasn't just chosen to make a point.    

Just short of 3/1 with betfair looks about right for a team that is a significant favourite for the semi, and will likely be a similar dog in the final.   It might be a little short, but isn't wildly out.  I am not going to rush to take the 9/4 with Victor. It isn't like he'd lay me anyway.


2 against Sweden, 2 against Colombia and the 2 against Belgium were in the first 30 mins, so outside the stipulated timeframe. I think 4 is right and it’s like 4 hours 53 with one extra time and the all the injury time.

It is an abuse of stats, as the duration has been especially chosen to favour a specious argument.  In the circumstances, the only thing amazing about it is that you have continue to argue about it after somebody has pointed it how flawed this kind of reasoning is.  So in the whole comp they likely had 20 odd shots on target, which doesn't feel amazingly low at all.  


That seems like a crazy overreaction. I’m certainly not arguing though, it just seemed like a reasonable and potentially helpful thing to do to explain what I meant, the most recent ~5 hours seemed relevant. I agree it misrepresents the situation to some extent by going back to exactly the fifth last attempt on target.  My apologies if it pissed you off.

My job uses stats, so I guess the selective use of stats is somthing that stands out more to me than others.  I don't know who started spreading this stat, but its original purpose seems unlikely to have been to poduce something helpful, it looks way more likely to have been put together by someone wanting to mislead.
 
As I had a bit of spare time I ran the basic stats on the whole World Cup tournament.  I used that period as the matches were all serious (Maybe barring England Belgium), and are sufficiently current to be meaningful.  They weren't specifically chosen to put any team in a good or bad light.

Here are the basis attacking stats for the World Cup.  I am not claiming every stat, and it isn't every one people use in football models, this isn't Star Lizard, but it should give a basic picture of how attacking each team left in the World Cup.  They were chosen simply because they were easily accesible using google.  I am sure xG must be somewhere on the internet, I just didn't find it quickly enough.

Goals scored
Belgium 14
England 11
France 9
Croatia 9

Total Shots
Belgium 85
Croatia 77
England 68
France 55

Shots on target
Belgium 33
England 21
France 18
Croatia 18

Corners
Belgium 30
England 30
Croatia 26
France 15

Possession
Croatia 55.6
England 55.4
France 53.6
Belgium 52.8

The possesion stats are all very close and just based on an average of the possesion for each game.  I haven't adjusted for extra time or added up the minutes.  Hence it is entirely possible that these numbers are even closer, or that England are top.

Overall, England aren't having fewer shots and shots on target than anyone else, they are pretty average.  They look about the 2nd best team overall on these stats to me.  I think Belgium probably lead on stats, and France are surprising bad given they won 4-3 against Brazil.   That confirms my visual perception in that Belgium have looked the most impressive of the teams left to me.  Given I have done some legwork, I guess I'll probably back them against France.

If you just want an interesting stat, France have had 6 shots on target in the knockout phase, and scored 6 goals.  If you believed the law of averages was signifciant...

Just as a disclaimer, I haven't checked all this, so there could be mistakes.

FWIT The law of averages is bollocks too.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2018, 10:54:26 AM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #344 on: July 09, 2018, 11:06:02 AM »

Thanks Doobs, it’ll be a while until I get a chance to read it all properly but I appreciate your efforts and was going to suggest that we might discuss it further. The original stat such as it is, was all my own work :-), I went a little further and added weighting for time in front/time scores were level. I knew there was room for improvement.

I would say , I’m sure, that whilst I’m not in your league, I do have a well above average understanding of stats/probability. I worked as an Engineer in flood defence for a number of years, working very closely with the stats obsessed parts of that industry.
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