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Author Topic: The world cup  (Read 55241 times)
celtic
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« Reply #75 on: June 22, 2018, 11:06:54 AM »

Commentator in the French game made a great point as the game entered the 76th minute.

He'd been looking at all the results so far and worked out that 17% of goals so far had come in the last 15 mins of games.

Pretty interesting and glad he shared

Amazing stat. Can't believe I missed that!
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« Reply #76 on: June 22, 2018, 12:19:14 PM »

Commentator in the French game made a great point as the game entered the 76th minute.

He'd been looking at all the results so far and worked out that 17% of goals so far had come in the last 15 mins of games.

Pretty interesting and glad he shared

 
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« Reply #77 on: June 22, 2018, 01:16:59 PM »

Nigeria v Iceland. My daughter said it will be like watching chess.

It took me a while....
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« Reply #78 on: June 22, 2018, 03:09:10 PM »

Coming round to VAR watching how it's been implemented in this world cup versus the farcical introduction in the UK.

Decisions are quick, it's obvious what's going on and the ref going off to have a look works OK. In the end, still down to the quality of the ref on the pitch which seems about right

Impressed by the ref in the Brazil game reversing his pen decision
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« Reply #79 on: June 22, 2018, 10:23:13 PM »

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #80 on: June 23, 2018, 03:38:41 AM »

Interesting that five of the top six in the betting at the start of the World Cup could end up on the same side of the draw. The opposite side to England if we get out of the group in second place.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #81 on: June 23, 2018, 02:37:41 PM »

Great chart, thanks for posting. There have to be angles we can exploit here. England to win the group looks good with the high likelihood Belgium rest their good players looking for the favourable side of the draw. 5/2 is good, now to find someone with a clean and functioning PP account. There are clear scenarios, that will have played out by the time of the game, where throwing the game will make sense.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2018, 02:39:47 PM by kukushkin88 » Logged
dino1980
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« Reply #82 on: June 23, 2018, 03:34:41 PM »

Why wouldn’t England do the same though? No guarantee we beat Panama, but if we do then unless we beat Panama by six clear goals then England will need to beat Belgium to win the group.

It’s also highly unlikely either manager instructs their team to throw the game, in my opinion, even if second is the more favourable route. Perhaps the better angle is to back Mexico (they were 40/1 when I did so last night). If they win their group their route would be Switzerland, England/Group H winner, Spain/Croatia ( also could be Portugal or Uruguay) depending on who wins Group B/runner-up Group A.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #83 on: June 23, 2018, 03:43:06 PM »

Why wouldn’t England do the same though? No guarantee we beat Panama, but if we do then unless we beat Panama by six clear goals then England will need to beat Belgium to win the group.

It’s also highly unlikely either manager instructs their team to throw the game, in my opinion, even if second is the more favourable route. Perhaps the better angle is to back Mexico (they were 40/1 when I did so last night). If they win their group their route would be Switzerland, England/Group H winner, Spain/Croatia ( also could be Portugal or Uruguay) depending on who wins Group B/runner-up Group A.

It’s only that we get 5/2 rather than 7/10. We should always take the bigger price looking to exploit an angle like this. I also think it’s fair to say Belgium have more to protect by resting players. Kane imo, remains the only England player where there is a critical drop off if he is hurt/suspended.
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« Reply #84 on: June 23, 2018, 05:00:13 PM »

That soft, whispery 'look how calm and logical I am' voice of Martin O'Neill. He sounds like a social worker. 
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #85 on: June 23, 2018, 05:42:13 PM »

Why wouldn’t England do the same though? No guarantee we beat Panama, but if we do then unless we beat Panama by six clear goals then England will need to beat Belgium to win the group.

It’s also highly unlikely either manager instructs their team to throw the game, in my opinion, even if second is the more favourable route. Perhaps the better angle is to back Mexico (they were 40/1 when I did so last night). If they win their group their route would be Switzerland, England/Group H winner, Spain/Croatia ( also could be Portugal or Uruguay) depending on who wins Group B/runner-up Group A.

It’s only that we get 5/2 rather than 7/10. We should always take the bigger price looking to exploit an angle like this. I also think it’s fair to say Belgium have more to protect by resting players. Kane imo, remains the only England player where there is a critical drop off if he is hurt/suspended.

For clarity, the ‘always take the bigger price’ applies to the ‘team might manipulate a result for a better path to the final’ angle, not to the Mexico were value at 40/1 with the draw looking like it’ll open up for them (even better spot now :-) This is probably pretty obvious I guess but no harm in clarifying.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2018, 05:50:46 PM by kukushkin88 » Logged
HutchGF
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« Reply #86 on: June 23, 2018, 05:43:53 PM »

Look handy these Mexicans.

Going to have a little bit of the 40/1 with the draw opening up as highlighted earlier.
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« Reply #87 on: June 24, 2018, 08:52:25 AM »

Germany's goal though...

Wow!

Has there ever been a better goal scored at a more dramatic moment?

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« Reply #88 on: June 24, 2018, 10:30:28 AM »

Germany's goal though...

Wow!

Has there ever been a better goal scored at a more dramatic moment?

Reminiscent of Beckham vs Greece. Steely brilliance just like the goal yesterday

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« Reply #89 on: June 24, 2018, 04:07:39 PM »

Possible route if we lose against Belgium:
R16: Japan/Senegal
QF: Mexico
SF: Portugal/Croatia

Possible route of England WIN the group:
R16: Japan/Senegal/Poland/Colombia
QF: Brazil/Germany
SF: France/Spain

how do you play it? if Belgium might rotate a lot to think the same way, how does it play out?
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