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Author Topic: The long overdue (no staking) tennis betting and discussion thread  (Read 100398 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #525 on: August 15, 2022, 08:30:54 PM »

current form everyone injury free who would be in your Davis cup and Billie Jean King cup teams?

Assuming you have to take Skupski and Salisbury with Evans Norrie and Draper for the men but do you play the double specialists together?

In the Women there are no real standouts in the doubles and would you play Emma in the singles? And would Watson get in the squad if she made herself available


I wouldn't take Watson, she just seems out of form and doesn't seem confident.  Think Raducanu and Dart seem obvious, and Boulter played really well in it the one before her injury, so would put her in if Raducanu injured. Watson plays a few doubles matches, so maybe there is a place for her there with Dart? 

Think Evans, Norrie and Drapar are obvious for men with Peniston reserve.  Don't follow doubles enough, but we seem to have loads of solid options in men's doubles.


Dan, Cameron, Andy and Joe are in between Draper and Skupski for the 5th spot


Think Murray is way more likely than Draper to sell tickets in Scotland, and more likely to ensure a partisan crowd, so maybe I am cool with it. 

You'd start with Evans and Norrie and two doubles specialists rather than drafting Murray in the doubles?   Skupski is 4 in the World, so it would be mad to not play him?    Given Evans recent form, you'd want to put him in before Murray too?   Suppose that there are going to be lots of games if we do well, so Murray offers a good switch in either singles or doubles.  You'd be less confident in Draper playing doubles.

Think I'd still pick Draper, as he is the future, but think there are many reasons why they have gone with Murray.

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« Reply #526 on: August 25, 2022, 08:18:24 PM »

not a great opening round for Emma in her defence Cornet
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« Reply #527 on: August 26, 2022, 09:18:22 AM »

not a great opening round for Emma in her defence Cornet

Then it isn't so bad until the last 16, assuming Osaka isn't the force of old?  Think she wouldn't be too unhappy.

Kyle Edmund has run bad, a couple of easier games would have made a lot of difference to his ranking.  Harriet Dart ran bad too.
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« Reply #528 on: August 29, 2022, 11:08:39 PM »

LIVE RANKINGS

4 GB men in the top 50

Emma R 79
Harriot D 80

Norrie needs to make last 8 to climb Novak, which is where he is seeded

wish i could stay up to watch draper tonight i think it could be a good match
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« Reply #529 on: August 29, 2022, 11:10:00 PM »

not a great opening round for Emma in her defence Cornet

Then it isn't so bad until the last 16, assuming Osaka isn't the force of old?  Think she wouldn't be too unhappy.

Kyle Edmund has run bad, a couple of easier games would have made a lot of difference to his ranking.  Harriet Dart ran bad too.

Dart just won, having looked like she was going out after a couple of games in Set 3.  

Raducanu has to win vs Cornet now, or she is in danger of losing her GB number one spot.  She isn't a big favourite either, think it was like 4/5 or 8/11 yesterday when I looked, given it is provisional 79 vs provisional 36.  Sure it will be painted as a big shock if she loses.  Think she must need to get last 16 to get close to top 50 and needs to do way better to be seeded in Australia.  Despite this, pretty sure I'd take evens she'll be seeded for this next year.
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« Reply #530 on: August 31, 2022, 11:52:07 AM »

not a great opening round for Emma in her defence Cornet

Then it isn't so bad until the last 16, assuming Osaka isn't the force of old?  Think she wouldn't be too unhappy.

Kyle Edmund has run bad, a couple of easier games would have made a lot of difference to his ranking.  Harriet Dart ran bad too.

Dart just won, having looked like she was going out after a couple of games in Set 3.  

Raducanu has to win vs Cornet now, or she is in danger of losing her GB number one spot.  She isn't a big favourite either, think it was like 4/5 or 8/11 yesterday when I looked, given it is provisional 79 vs provisional 36.  Sure it will be painted as a big shock if she loses.  Think she must need to get last 16 to get close to top 50 and needs to do way better to be seeded in Australia.  Despite this, pretty sure I'd take evens she'll be seeded for this next year.

Actually woke up and watched Raducanu from 2-4 down.  She had a few plasters on and was really struggling with blisters again. Cornet was a bit up and down, but hit some glorious drop shots.  It was pretty close, but barring some terrible double faults, Cornet looked better throughout.  Raducanu is getting some of her game back and am sure she'll be fine next year. 
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« Reply #531 on: August 31, 2022, 12:29:05 PM »

yeah i went to sleep with match she was showing some good signs missed the ending but atleast now she can get a proper tennis education having to go through qualifying etc
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« Reply #532 on: August 31, 2022, 02:58:34 PM »

yeah i went to sleep with match she was showing some good signs missed the ending but atleast now she can get a proper tennis education having to go through qualifying etc

So we probably saw the whole match between us?   She'll be automatic for grand slams on this ranking and might be better playing a few 125s to get confidence rather than 1000s anyway?
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« Reply #533 on: August 31, 2022, 03:29:31 PM »

yeah i went to sleep with match she was showing some good signs missed the ending but atleast now she can get a proper tennis education having to go through qualifying etc

So we probably saw the whole match between us?   She'll be automatic for grand slams on this ranking and might be better playing a few 125s to get confidence rather than 1000s anyway?

yeah thats what i am thinking a few wins and getting experience rather than playing top 50 players week in week out and not being able to play more than 1 or 2 matches
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« Reply #534 on: September 01, 2022, 06:56:48 AM »

Had to get up early, so missed last night's matches, but great result by Draper overnight beating Felix Auger-Aliassime.  My betting record on him is pretty terrible, no money on him again when he has won despite going on about him here for ages.   Seem to have done the opposite on Raducanu despite her bad 12 months.

Also Serena beating Kontaveit was pretty surprising, and makes Raducanu's recent win against her look better.
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« Reply #535 on: September 03, 2022, 06:39:41 PM »

Norrie in the final of the 250 in San Diego tonight, a win will get him on the verge of top 20. Is he good enough to break into top 10 next year?

could he make the top 5 next year? 20 points behind Novak

can draper make top 20 next year?

Who will be GB woman number 1 end of next year?

these questions and more can be answered with your first purchase of a DeLorean time machine
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« Reply #536 on: September 04, 2022, 09:03:55 AM »

Norrie in the final of the 250 in San Diego tonight, a win will get him on the verge of top 20. Is he good enough to break into top 10 next year?

could he make the top 5 next year? 20 points behind Novak

can draper make top 20 next year?

Who will be GB woman number 1 end of next year?

these questions and more can be answered with your first purchase of a DeLorean time machine

I think Raducanu is clearly better than Dart, so would say Raducanu is long odds on.

Draper is going to be top 32 soon enough just playing at his current level.  This happens because he is going to be playing higher in the coming months than he was 12 months ago.  Think I'd go for top 20 more likely than not.

Think Norrie could make top 5, but is clearly a worse player than Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev and Alcaraz.  I don't think Djokovic will be banned from the US next year, and assume he gets in Australia too.  Think you can probably add Ruud to the list that is better than Norrie, and Sinner is probably going to improve past him.  I think Tsitipas and Zverev are a bit flakey, so could fall below him.  Think Norrie has to run really good in a slam to get there (like Final at least).  Nadal could struggle with injury again, or Djokovic could come back worse/remain banned.  I think top 5 is less likely than not.

So in order of likelihood.

Raducanu top UK.
Draper top 20.
Norrie top 5.
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« Reply #537 on: September 04, 2022, 11:41:31 AM »

Take away Nadal and Djorkovic, Norrie is at 27 of Everyone down to Busta at 14. Does look like the changing of the guard
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« Reply #538 on: September 05, 2022, 12:24:20 PM »

Norrie is aged 27, and if you take away Nadal and Djorkovic, everyone down to Busta at 14 is younger than him. Does look like the changing of the guard

FYP as it took me a while to understand.

Quite fancy old man Cilic at 4/1+ vs Alcaraz.  It is just a price thing, as I am still a big Alcaraz fan.

I thought Nadal was going to disappear a couple of years ago, think it is safe to say that he has defied expectations.  Also, a bit early to write off Djokovic, as there is little sign he can't still compete at the highest level once the vaccine mandates go.

 
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« Reply #539 on: September 05, 2022, 12:35:49 PM »

Norrie is aged 27, and if you take away Nadal and Djorkovic, everyone down to Busta at 14 is younger than him. Does look like the changing of the guard

FYP as it took me a while to understand

 

i rewrote it about a dozen time to try and get the point across and still failed lol
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