Ryder Cup thread

[BigAdz]

I'm gonna lose a pot of cash, as I thought the yanks would crush, but I will be happy to be wrong.

Its been great.

In terms of singles betting betting, I fancy Simpson to beat Rose,  hope that Poulter wins the cup by beating Dustbin, and think its a max on Hatton to beat Reed who seems so bad he must be totally shot mentally.

[Karabiner]

I've been considering whether to have a yankee on the last four matches being ties.

[Marky147]

I've been considering whether to have a yankee on the last four matches being ties.

Superb argument, I'm in.

[BigAdz]

I've been considering whether to have a yankee on the last four matches being ties.

On the basis that it might be over and they just walk in, or because you think they are especially even matches?

Cant recall if they give up normally, but pretty sure they have kept going in the past. If not its a great idea.

[Doobs]

I've been considering whether to have a yankee on the last four matches being ties.

On the basis that it might be over and they just walk in, or because you think they are especially even matches?

Cant recall if they give up normally, but pretty sure they have kept going in the past. If not its a great idea.

We've done it before, maybe on thread?  There are definitely more ties at the end, but the bookies were getting wise to it a few years ago.  Not many bookies have priced the matches up right now, but looking at the prices, I guess the older traders have moved on.

[BigAdz]

I've been considering whether to have a yankee on the last four matches being ties.

On the basis that it might be over and they just walk in, or because you think they are especially even matches?

Cant recall if they give up normally, but pretty sure they have kept going in the past. If not its a great idea.

We've done it before, maybe on thread?  There are definitely more ties at the end, but the bookies were getting wise to it a few years ago.  Not many bookies have priced the matches up right now, but looking at the prices, I guess the older traders have moved on.

I see 356 don't have the time priced.

Void if a draw?

[BigAdz]

Not finding anyone that will let me do combos?

Any joy anyone?

[Karabiner]

Ladyboys

[Woodsey]

Ladyboys

Is that what your spell checker corrects laddies to?  what you been up to Ralph?  

[Bazzaboy]

I've been considering whether to have a yankee on the last four matches being ties.

On the basis that it might be over and they just walk in, or because you think they are especially even matches?

Cant recall if they give up normally, but pretty sure they have kept going in the past. If not its a great idea.

We've done it before, maybe on thread?  There are definitely more ties at the end, but the bookies were getting wise to it a few years ago.  Not many bookies have priced the matches up right now, but looking at the prices, I guess the older traders have moved on.

Is the data not skewed by an increased number of draws in the early years when they effectively called it a half and walked off? Nowadays they always play it out. It was a huge angle years ago but I’m not sure it exists nowadays.

[Newportlad]

My picks for the singles are.

MOLINARI vs Mickelson @ 1.53   Mickelson has no game at all atm

HATTON vs Reed @ 2.1  Really like this one as Reed couldnt hit it straight from the tee yesterday.

SPIETH vs Olesen @ 1.62

FLEETWOOD vs Finau @ 1.85 

THOMAS vs McIlroy @ 2.15

I'm 7/8 over the first two days for picks   , but unfortunately thought USA would win overall.

[doubleup]

looking at the recent years where the win margin was big there aren't many draws in the last 4

2016: 17 - 11 no draws

2014: 16.5 - 11.5 no draws

2008: 16.5 - 11.5 no draws

2006: 18.5 - 9.5  no draws

2004: 18.5 - 9.5 no draws

2002 might have been the year that some players walked in?  It was 15.5 - 12.5 with 3 draws from the last 4.  McGinley clinched the cup, with a draw on the 18th, with two matches behind him, which must have been either ties or one up at that time (unless they had fallen behind and were still on the 16th), so even if they did walk in there was quite a lot of "draw equity" in the matches anyway.

[Karabiner]

Looking at the singles match-ups on paper, it wouldn't be a great surprise if the US won six of the top eight matches.

I think there might still be a little life in this contest yet.

[doubleup]

yes -bet everyday are 9-1 US betfair are 10-1 which seems a bit long.

[Doobs]

looking at the recent years where the win margin was big there aren't many draws in the last 4

2016: 17 - 11 no draws

2014: 16.5 - 11.5 no draws

2008: 16.5 - 11.5 no draws

2006: 18.5 - 9.5  no draws

2004: 18.5 - 9.5 no draws

2002 might have been the year that some players walked in?  It was 15.5 - 12.5 with 3 draws from the last 4.  McGinley clinched the cup, with a draw on the 18th, with two matches behind him, which must have been either ties or one up at that time (unless they had fallen behind and were still on the 16th), so even if they did walk in there was quite a lot of "draw equity" in the matches anyway.

I keep having these moments where things I thought were failry recent were really 20 years ago, so 2002 is probably right.  In my defense, there have only been 9 tournaments since then, so it wasn't that many tournaments ago!   I suspect the previous discussion was on the betfair forum and not here.  I thought there was one more recent than that, but I am now pretty sure I was thinking of this one.  https://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/tiger-woods-concession-what-2012-ryder-cup-revealed-about-man-and-event.  Ironically it cost draw bettors money.

I think the conclusion is it is pretty marginal unless you can do multiples; and everybody seems to refuse multiples; so if there ever was an edge it has gone.   

Obviously there will be 2 or 3 draws in the last 4 now.