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Author Topic: What is Nate missing?  (Read 4124 times)
TightEnd
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« on: July 03, 2019, 12:24:23 PM »

Nate Silver, the pre-eminent US pollster of 538 posts as follows:

"As far as I can tell there are 10 major causes of death in a poker tournament. In this context, I don't necessarily mean the very last hand you play to bust out, but the hand that most contributes to your demise. I'm sure there are some edge cases. But am I missing any big ones?"
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« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2019, 04:04:47 PM »

AA v KK on 1st hand/orbit/level on a AKx flop (if the money didnt go aipf)
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« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2019, 04:21:35 PM »

Nate Silver, the pre-eminent US pollster of 538 posts as follows:

"As far as I can tell there are 10 major causes of death in a poker tournament. In this context, I don't necessarily mean the very last hand you play to bust out, but the hand that most contributes to your demise. I'm sure there are some edge cases. But am I missing any big ones?"


Discover that one of the spades in your nut flush is a club.

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« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2019, 05:21:27 PM »

Some of the causes of being wet

a) taking a shower or bath
b) getting caught in the rain
c) having someone unload a water pistol over you
d) swimming
e) falling in a river or pond
f) losing control of your bladder
g) spilling your drink over yourself




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« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2019, 06:21:35 PM »

Some of the causes of being wet

a) taking a shower or bath
b) getting caught in the rain
c) having someone unload a water pistol over you
d) swimming
e) falling in a river or pond
f) losing control of your bladder
g) spilling your drink over yourself






I don't get it Dave.
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« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2019, 07:20:56 PM »

Some of the causes of being wet

a) taking a shower or bath
b) getting caught in the rain
c) having someone unload a water pistol over you
d) swimming
e) falling in a river or pond
f) losing control of your bladder
g) spilling your drink over yourself






I don't get it Dave.


Just a list of obvious ways to become wet to go along with the list of obvious ways to lose chips.
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« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2019, 07:38:21 PM »

Some of the causes of being wet

a) taking a shower or bath
b) getting caught in the rain
c) having someone unload a water pistol over you
d) swimming
e) falling in a river or pond
f) losing control of your bladder
g) spilling your drink over yourself






I don't get it Dave.


Just a list of obvious ways to become wet to go along with the list of obvious ways to lose chips.


Yes but there are obviously hundreds of ways to get wet, I can't think of many more ways of going bust than those listed.
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« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2019, 07:49:25 PM »

I enjoyed your examples though.
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« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2019, 07:51:08 PM »

Seems to be missing two:

11) Make a terrible mistake (misread, miscalculation or poor assessment) and base your decision on it

12) As above, but you lie about it and pretend it's 1-10.

Not speaking from personal experience or anything, Guv...
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« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2019, 07:54:49 PM »

Seems to be missing two:

11) Make a terrible mistake (misread, miscalculation or poor assessment) and base your decision on it

12) As above, but you lie about it and pretend it's 1-10.

Not speaking from personal experience or anything, Guv...


Yes. My nut flush example would come under your #11
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« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2019, 07:56:07 PM »

I didn't get the chance to do a twelve because I'd already tabled it with a flourish.
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Tal
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« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2019, 08:03:13 PM »

Seems to be missing two:

11) Make a terrible mistake (misread, miscalculation or poor assessment) and base your decision on it

12) As above, but you lie about it and pretend it's 1-10.

Not speaking from personal experience or anything, Guv...


Yes. My nut flush example would come under your #11

Exactly. Mr Silver seems to think you only get out when playing well. I'm sad to report there are other ways.
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« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2019, 08:15:36 PM »

Seems to be missing two:

11) Make a terrible mistake (misread, miscalculation or poor assessment) and base your decision on it

12) As above, but you lie about it and pretend it's 1-10.

Not speaking from personal experience or anything, Guv...


Yes. My nut flush example would come under your #11

Exactly. Mr Silver seems to think you only get out when playing well. I'm sad to report there are other ways.

Similar to that I'd say a few of those things could have something along the lines of, "or the perception of" added.
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« Reply #13 on: July 04, 2019, 12:33:48 PM »

Nate Silver, the pre-eminent US pollster of 538 posts as follows:

"As far as I can tell there are 10 major causes of death in a poker tournament. In this context, I don't necessarily mean the very last hand you play to bust out, but the hand that most contributes to your demise. I'm sure there are some edge cases. But am I missing any big ones?"


Discover that one of the spades in your nut flush is a club.

I know, I was that soldier.

From excitement to embarrassment when your AA is actually A4. I saw that happen to someone next door on the SPT and they said oops, it's not the first time I've done that.
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« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2019, 12:59:34 PM »

Nate Silver, the pre-eminent US pollster of 538 posts as follows:

"As far as I can tell there are 10 major causes of death in a poker tournament. In this context, I don't necessarily mean the very last hand you play to bust out, but the hand that most contributes to your demise. I'm sure there are some edge cases. But am I missing any big ones?"


Discover that one of the spades in your nut flush is a club.

I know, I was that soldier.

From excitement to embarrassment when your AA is actually A4. I saw that happen to someone next door on the SPT and they said oops, it's not the first time I've done that.

Called off most of my stack with a straight 8 high.  I should have folded when he hit the flush on the river anyway!
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