Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

I've had a cheeky £5 on Perez on this market:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/leader-after-1st-lap

I expect Sergio to get past Valtteri down the Kemmel straight as I already said. As for the two Mercedes, in theory, they will be penalised more than anyone else with the new start procedure for this race. Chances are that the new start procedure will change nothing. However, I don't believe the bookies offering 28/1 have considered the possibility of both Mercedes drivers being very slow off the line. It's a bit of a punt, but it's a good price too.

[DungBeetle]

That's a massive leak, Peter. I know the elders will laugh at me commenting on this, as I'm far from an expert, but you should be having more on a 33/1 that should be 10/1 than a 4/1 shot that should be 3/1. It's the difference in the percentage chance of it happening between what you think it is and what the bookies think it is that should dictate the bet size.

It's a big step from Ice Cream betting to adjust the way you bet to fit that model and if you're serious about your ROI, this should be a big boost for it.

This is one of the first things I was told when I got into sports betting. However, while I do understand the logic, I disagree intensely.

I think it's important to weigh up not only the value in the bet, but also the probability too.

The best way I can explain myself is through an example. Let's look at the race win market tomorrow for the Belgian GP. Roberto Merhi and Will Stevens are both 7500/1 to win the race. However, if you ran the race 7500 times - they would more than likely win two of them, albeit under exceptionally crazy circumstances. Does this mean we should bet big on Manor every GP? No, certainly not, surely?

Interestingly, I can now cash out my controversial "Going For Goals" spread bet for £25 

This is how it should work Peter.  You will make smallish chunks each week unless there is a market shock (ie someone gets a pasting).  I think you'll win by the way but not sure I like the risk profile!

I just need to hope there aren't many teams who score six and over this season. Fingers crossed, I'm feeling comfortable right now, but it would only take a few bad weeks to all go wrong.

Surely the risk profile depends on my financial situation, and in the nicest way possible, you don't know that 

Your financial situation isn't relevant.  The stake can account for that.  It's potential win verses potential one week loss.

[TightEnd]

I've had a cheeky £5 on Perez on this market:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/leader-after-1st-lap

I expect Sergio to get past Valtteri down the Kemmel straight as I already said. As for the two Mercedes, in theory, they will be penalised more than anyone else with the new start procedure for this race. Chances are that the new start procedure will change nothing. However, I don't believe the bookies offering 28/1 have considered the possibility of both Mercedes drivers being very slow off the line. It's a bit of a punt, but it's a good price too.

the williams has a merc engine, qualified third and will get overtaken on the first straight without DRS?

[Ledders]

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed.  

I hate the whole palp thing, it's ludicrous. If I had more time, I would genuinely take this to the courts - it's grossly unfair in my opinion. If they make the mistake, they should pay.

Ha, knew it too good to be true. Scandalous that bookies can do that in this day and age (any age?).

Thankfully their website is so terrible (it took me multiple attempts to create an account) the bet never got placed and I've swiftly saved a pony. Thanks

Edit: They did accept the bet and then promptly cancelled it I see now in an email. Genuine mistake then? I'm a bit green when it comes to this.

[Shrimper1]

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed.  

I hate the whole palp thing, it's ludicrous. If I had more time, I would genuinely take this to the courts - it's grossly unfair in my opinion. If they make the mistake, they should pay.

Ha, knew it too good to be true. Scandalous that bookies can do that in this day and age (any age?).

Thankfully their website is so terrible (it took me multiple attempts to create an account) the bet never got placed and I've swiftly saved a pony. Thanks

I really don't understand and find it laughable that people think bookies should honour obvious palpable errors. What if there is a software glitch and a price of 10,000,000-1 was published online for chelsea to beat west brom. Do we think  any bets should be honoured and the company should pay out a few billion? If a builder issues us a quote and leaves a few zeros off, do we think that he should do the job for a tenner rather than ten grand? If we go to a restaurant and the  waiter punches In £1.20 rather than £120 into the card machine initially do we think that it is our right to just pay the £1.20 as it was his mistake?

People really need to get real.

[DungBeetle]

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed.  

I hate the whole palp thing, it's ludicrous. If I had more time, I would genuinely take this to the courts - it's grossly unfair in my opinion. If they make the mistake, they should pay.

Ha, knew it too good to be true. Scandalous that bookies can do that in this day and age (any age?).

Thankfully their website is so terrible (it took me multiple attempts to create an account) the bet never got placed and I've swiftly saved a pony. Thanks

I really don't understand and find it laughable that people think bookies should honour obvious palpable errors. What if there is a software glitch and a price of 10,000,000-1 was published online for chelsea to beat west brom. Do we think  any bets should be honoured and the company should pay out a few billion? If a builder issues us a quote and leaves a few zeros off, do we think that he should do the job for a tenner rather than ten grand? If we go to a restaurant and the  waiter punches In £1.20 rather than £120 into the card machine initially do we think that it is our right to just pay the £1.20 as it was his mistake?

People really need to get real.

Palp rule is fine.  People generally get angry when the bookie uses it to excuse their own error of judgement.  If a bookie makes a genuine fat finger and reverses favourites doubt too many people begrudge the void.

[arbboy]

pissing down at newcastle dogs. rpgtv ch 212.  All mid/wides since the rain came an hour ago.  Worth keeping an eye on.

[Tal]

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed.  

I hate the whole palp thing, it's ludicrous. If I had more time, I would genuinely take this to the courts - it's grossly unfair in my opinion. If they make the mistake, they should pay.

Ha, knew it too good to be true. Scandalous that bookies can do that in this day and age (any age?).

Thankfully their website is so terrible (it took me multiple attempts to create an account) the bet never got placed and I've swiftly saved a pony. Thanks

I really don't understand and find it laughable that people think bookies should honour obvious palpable errors. What if there is a software glitch and a price of 10,000,000-1 was published online for chelsea to beat west brom. Do we think  any bets should be honoured and the company should pay out a few billion? If a builder issues us a quote and leaves a few zeros off, do we think that he should do the job for a tenner rather than ten grand? If we go to a restaurant and the  waiter punches In £1.20 rather than £120 into the card machine initially do we think that it is our right to just pay the £1.20 as it was his mistake?

People really need to get real.

Palp rule is fine.  People generally get angry when the bookie uses it to excuse their own error of judgement.  If a bookie makes a genuine fat finger and reverses favourites doubt too many people begrudge the void.

There's also the case where something important happens (an injury, a mechanical failure, the voting data is leaked, whatever) and one bookie is slow to react. In that situation, you want the bookie to honour the bet, but sometimes they don't. 

The principle of palpable error is absolutely fine, but the breadth of the interpretation of it is silly.

[DMorgan]

Rightio, as predicted, lots of value about:

Points Finish - Marcus Ericsson @ 6/1 with Get Victor. Sauber don't have the quickest car - but on a track like Spa, and with Thunderstorms predicted for 2PM tomorrow, Sauber have a shot of points if there is chaos ahead. If today's GP2 and GP3 races are anything to go by, there will be! Either way, 6/1 is too high at Spa for any semi-competitive car, suggest £10.

McLaren Total Finishers - 0 @ 3/1 with BeeWin. The Belgian GP is a car breaker, and with McLaren's issues, it'd be surprising if they get any car to the end of the race. Surprised to see this at 3/1.

Podium Finish - Sergio Perez @ 40/1 with BoilSports (palp?) or 6/1 with SkyeBet/Bill Hills or BeeWin. I expect this to happen tomorrow. Force India have the quickest car in sector one, are lacking in sector two, and are average in sector three. Sector one is where most of the overtaking is done though. I predict that Sergio will get past Valtteri on the opening lap, and I seriously doubt that anyone will be able to get past the super quick Force India down the straights, even with DRS. It's exceptionally hard to pass in sector two where the Force India is lacking. Suggest £20.

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 11/2 with PatrickPower. This bet is on the assumption you didn't get on when I previously suggested it. He starts 11th, but easily has the car underneath him to finish in the top six. Suggest £10.

Needs some advice on this one:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/safety-car

I'd say there is a 70% chance of a safety car, is 4/6 good enough?

FYI, I am now able to cash out my Force India season points bet for £1020. Not going to though  

Fred can have £10 of mine on no mclaren finishers at 3/1

[Nico29]

That perez first lap leader bet peter mentioned@28s can be backed at 50s on bf under the description 'any other driver'.

[TightEnd]

That perez first lap leader bet peter mentioned@28s can be backed at 50s on bf under the description 'any other driver'.

ta

Matched bets
Back (Bet For)   Odds   Stake   Profit
Any Other Driver50 £5.00  £245.00
Ref: 54361303088 Matched: 23:02 22-Aug-15

my question still applies

how does a Force I overtake a williams it qualified behind, without DRS on the first lap?

Lets hope for some chaos to give the bet a shot anyway

[mulhuzz]

Think he said FI were quickest in Sector 1 Tighty? Leggggo Chaos!

[McGlashan]

The Strictly Come Dancing line-up started to get interesting, as the BBC announced someone who might actually be able to dance: boxer Anthony Agogo

Click to see full-size image.

Subway latched onto Anthony's star potential at the 2012 Olympics as he's a very likable young guy with great diction.

Hopefully dancing isn't too strenuous on his achilles heal, which, funnily enough, is his achilles heal.

[Peter-27]

That's a massive leak, Peter. I know the elders will laugh at me commenting on this, as I'm far from an expert, but you should be having more on a 33/1 that should be 10/1 than a 4/1 shot that should be 3/1. It's the difference in the percentage chance of it happening between what you think it is and what the bookies think it is that should dictate the bet size.

It's a big step from Ice Cream betting to adjust the way you bet to fit that model and if you're serious about your ROI, this should be a big boost for it.

This is one of the first things I was told when I got into sports betting. However, while I do understand the logic, I disagree intensely.

I think it's important to weigh up not only the value in the bet, but also the probability too.

The best way I can explain myself is through an example. Let's look at the race win market tomorrow for the Belgian GP. Roberto Merhi and Will Stevens are both 7500/1 to win the race. However, if you ran the race 7500 times - they would more than likely win two of them, albeit under exceptionally crazy circumstances. Does this mean we should bet big on Manor every GP? No, certainly not, surely?

Interestingly, I can now cash out my controversial "Going For Goals" spread bet for £25 

This is how it should work Peter.  You will make smallish chunks each week unless there is a market shock (ie someone gets a pasting).  I think you'll win by the way but not sure I like the risk profile!

I just need to hope there aren't many teams who score six and over this season. Fingers crossed, I'm feeling comfortable right now, but it would only take a few bad weeks to all go wrong.

Surely the risk profile depends on my financial situation, and in the nicest way possible, you don't know that 

Your financial situation isn't relevant.  The stake can account for that.  It's potential win verses potential one week loss.

I think it's in line with my other bets if you divide by 38. Just a matter of opinion I guess 

I've had a cheeky £5 on Perez on this market:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/leader-after-1st-lap

I expect Sergio to get past Valtteri down the Kemmel straight as I already said. As for the two Mercedes, in theory, they will be penalised more than anyone else with the new start procedure for this race. Chances are that the new start procedure will change nothing. However, I don't believe the bookies offering 28/1 have considered the possibility of both Mercedes drivers being very slow off the line. It's a bit of a punt, but it's a good price too.

the williams has a merc engine, qualified third and will get overtaken on the first straight without DRS?

Quite simply, yes. If Perez gets a clean run out of Eau Rouge, he'll get by on the Kemmel straight. This is because Force India have such an advantage in the first sector, 0.4 seconds to Williams in fact, which they do claw back in sector two - but then there's no where to pass, not easily anyway.

It's going to be a fascinating battle with the cars all having different strengths and weaknesses.

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed. 

I hate the whole palp thing, it's ludicrous. If I had more time, I would genuinely take this to the courts - it's grossly unfair in my opinion. If they make the mistake, they should pay.

Ha, knew it too good to be true. Scandalous that bookies can do that in this day and age (any age?).

Thankfully their website is so terrible (it took me multiple attempts to create an account) the bet never got placed and I've swiftly saved a pony. Thanks

I really don't understand and find it laughable that people think bookies should honour obvious palpable errors. What if there is a software glitch and a price of 10,000,000-1 was published online for chelsea to beat west brom. Do we think  any bets should be honoured and the company should pay out a few billion? If a builder issues us a quote and leaves a few zeros off, do we think that he should do the job for a tenner rather than ten grand? If we go to a restaurant and the  waiter punches In £1.20 rather than £120 into the card machine initially do we think that it is our right to just pay the £1.20 as it was his mistake?

People really need to get real.

Well maybe they should check their prices before they go online? As far as I'm aware the bookies currently have the power to palp any bet they like really, is there anyone policing it at all?

That perez first lap leader bet peter mentioned@28s can be backed at 50s on bf under the description 'any other driver'.

Ahh, good spot! Missed it myself 

[Rod]

The best way I can explain myself is through an example. Let's look at the race win market tomorrow for the Belgian GP. Roberto Merhi and Will Stevens are both 7500/1 to win the race. However, if you ran the race 7500 times - they would more than likely win two of them, albeit under exceptionally crazy circumstances. Does this mean we should bet big on Manor every GP? No, certainly not, surely?

Firstly let me say my knowledge of sports betting is non-existent but how is this right?

If they would win the race twice if you ran it 7500 times then surely a small bet on them every race (maybe just like 10p) would be correct? There is still an edge there?

Am I misunderstanding?