Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I think the 6/1 about Dundee away to Aberdeen tomorrow is worthy of a bet. Dundee were going off shorter against them last year and are a much improved side this year with improved squad depth. Aberdeen brought in a couple of players but generally similar to last year.

Dundee have started well this season, 7 points out of 12, but have left a good 3-4 points on the pitch such is the way the games have been going. They'll be an improving side with all the changes from last season.

Really thought they'd be a significant bit shorter for this. Seen them a couple of times already and could be undervalued at this stage.

Recommend £20 if agreement is found.

22 Aug 2015 - Aberdeen v Dundee - Match Betting
Tip It

Dundee @ 6/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
140.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001392/F

[TightEnd]

Just a quick couple for the Ebor (3.45 york). I am in a rush but picked young progressive jorses that should stay.

Suggest 20 e/w on Fields of Athenrey at 10/1 and Fun Mac at 12/1.  Put them on with hills mobile to get the extra bonus if the first horse is 2nd and 5 places.  Don't take much shorter in price.

Both are close to bf win and place so get extra place for free.

Cheers

couldn't do these on mobile, so five places 1,2,3,4 no 2nd place free bet

22 Aug 2015 - 3:45 York - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Fields Of Athenry @ 10/1  EW @ 1/4 1-5

Stake : £40.00 (£20.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
290.00

22 Aug 2015 - 3:45 York - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Fun Mac @ 12/1  EW @ 1/4 1-5

Stake : £40.00 (£20.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
340.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001394/F
Total Stake : £40.00

[MattyHollis]

Watford spread price finally chugging northwards.  Up 1.5 points since yesterday.  That's quite a big move for a premier league season quote without any match results so Spin must have seen some big buyers.

Would be good to get something out of the Southampton game tomorrow though as it's Man City away after that so could be heading into international break with only 2 points on the board if they get beaten.

Yeah interesting adjustments. Good though. Huge game with my Watford buy and Saints sell, home win please!

[Tal]

Andy Carroll has a fresh injury. This time, he rolled his ankle putting on his shoes.

Click to see full-size image.

Some of my stories are jokes. This one actually isn't.

Diego Forlan the movie? Form an orderly queue...



England's batting drew inevitable criticism from the commentators. Here is Sir G of B demonstrating some of the finer points of the England style:

Click to see full-size image.

The Strictly Come Dancing line-up started to get interesting, as the BBC announced someone who might actually be able to dance: boxer Anthony Agogo

Click to see full-size image.

We can assume there are more of those to follow. I really hope so, anyway. Not even I fancy watching twelve weeks of Jeremy Vine slomping around the place. Peter Andre says he wants to dance with Ola Jordan. I smell an ITV3 TV show...

[Peter-27]

can't bet with either betway or sky, never have on the thread, sorry

anywhere else?

Ricciardo podium is 5/1 in a host of places

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

FP3 just finished, hold off on this. Weekend has been fascinating so far, situation changing each session. I'm going to do an hour of analysis and will post suggestions just after 12

Peter, Williams must be sandbagging, right? Shouldn't they be much faster than this?

Williams are the team confusing the picture at the moment for sure. If they were sandbagging by their normal amount, they would be 3rd & 4th in quali trim. Seems unlikely, it could just be a case of other teams (like Force India and Red Bull) being quick here.

Suggestions are below (be wary about previous bets placed, this suggestions are assuming no bets have been placed so far):

Top Six Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 12/5 with the exchange. Mad price given the pace shown by Force India in FP3. Suggest £20.

Group D (KVY/PER/SAI/VER): Sergio Perez @ 11/4 with 365 and Hills. Will be close between Kvyat & Perez. 11/4 is too high. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/group-d

Qualifying Top Three Finish: Nico Hulkenberg @ 33/1 with Bwin. On Nico's quickest lap in FP3, he lost 0.4 seconds to Sergio in sector one. If he had match Sergio's sector one time, he would have finished 3rd. Suggest £10.

Once again, very Force India centric - but that's where the value is right now.

[Tal]

Peter, are you more confident that the prices on the first two bets are wrong than the third? If so, that's fine, but we should otherwise be considering having at least as much on the 33/1 shot.

[TightEnd]

Unmatched bets

At In-Play
Cancel
Keep
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Nico Hulkenberg 3.25 £9.00 £20.25
    Ref: 54309906690 Matched: 12:46 22-Aug-15
    Partially Matched bet

Matched bets
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Nico Hulkenberg 3.25 £11.00 £24.75
    Ref: 54309906690 Matched: 12:46 22-Aug-15
    Partially Matchedbet


i was surprised to see 1/2 kvyat 11/4 Perez

if you really think its close between the two we should have a much bigger bet than £20, yes?

22 Aug 2015 - Belgian F1 Grand Prix - Group Betting - Race - Group 4

Sergio Perez @ 11/4

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
75

[Tal]

Yep. Would you say 11/8 the pair? If so, why not have £50 on it?

[Peter-27]

Peter, are you more confident that the prices on the first two bets are wrong than the third? If so, that's fine, but we should otherwise be considering having at least as much on the 33/1 shot.

The 33/1 is more wrong as a price, but it is also more unlikely so I would not personally suggest any more than the £10 suggested. I believe you have to use a combination of the likelihood and value when betting, not just value. That is just my opinion though.

Unmatched bets

At In-Play
Cancel
Keep
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Nico Hulkenberg 3.25 £9.00 £20.25
    Ref: 54309906690 Matched: 12:46 22-Aug-15
    Partially Matched bet

Matched bets
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Nico Hulkenberg 3.25 £11.00 £24.75
    Ref: 54309906690 Matched: 12:46 22-Aug-15
    Partially Matchedbet


i was surprised to see 1/2 kvyat 11/4 Perez

if you really think its close between the two we should have a much bigger bet than £20, yes?

22 Aug 2015 - Belgian F1 Grand Prix - Group Betting - Race - Group 4

Sergio Perez @ 11/4

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
75

Given the variables (potential rain on Sunday, new start procedure, gear ratios, track temperature variation), I wouldn't be comfortable suggesting more than £20 - but it should be very close between the two of them.

[Tal]

That's a massive leak, Peter. I know the elders will laugh at me commenting on this, as I'm far from an expert, but you should be having more on a 33/1 that should be 10/1 than a 4/1 shot that should be 3/1. It's the difference in the percentage chance of it happening between what you think it is and what the bookies think it is that should dictate the bet size.

It's a big step from Ice Cream betting to adjust the way you bet to fit that model and if you're serious about your ROI, this should be a big boost for it.

[Peter-27]

Would suggest £10 in-play on Bottas Top Three Quali Finish at anything 4/1 or over.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/qualifying-top-3-finish

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/athletics/mens-world-championships/mens-100m/winner

Betway any good for getting on?

Gatlin at evens is a huge price after the heats.  Bolt all over the shop.  Priced on rep surely.  Recommend £200 at evens.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/athletics/mens-world-championships/mens-100m/winner

Betway any good for getting on?

Gatlin at evens is a huge price after the heats.  Bolt all over the shop.  Priced on rep surely.  Recommend £200 at evens.

haven't got betway.

not reliable, no?

[Tal]

http://www.oddschecker.com/athletics/mens-world-championships/mens-100m/winner

Betway any good for getting on?

Gatlin at evens is a huge price after the heats.  Bolt all over the shop.  Priced on rep surely.  Recommend £200 at evens.

Gatlin ran 9.83 with a +2.2 wind in his favour and Bolt walked 9.97 without it. You sure they're that far apart?

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/athletics/mens-world-championships/mens-100m/winner

Betway any good for getting on?

Gatlin at evens is a huge price after the heats.  Bolt all over the shop.  Priced on rep surely.  Recommend £200 at evens.

Gatlin ran 9.83 with a +2.2 wind in his favour and Bolt walked 9.97 without it. You sure they're that far apart?

He was also doing hand stands for the last 50m and looked in sub 9.65 form to me.  Technically perfect in that heat.  Was drawn 8 as well.  If anyone wants to lay me evens pm me.  Don't mind differences of opinion.  I obviously can't get on at betway.

The other yank Bromell looks a real talent as well for the future.  Awesome technique all the way to the line from him in a quick time again drawn badly in 8.