Tips for Tikay

[FUN4FRASER]

Think it's their other prices.  I would lay their prices on Sunderland, Villa and probably Newcastle as well.  Think that is pushing out the promoted team odds?

Mmmm ....still a badly balanced book wiith over reactions on the losing teams

[DungBeetle]

Every time Wolves concede a goal it's one of their two keepers fault.  Rotate garbage with garbage.

[maccol]

For those who are on the "Hottest Month" bet, temperatures today are forecast to reach at least 85f (29c) in parts of England, though I seen to recall we had something like 35c (?) early in July.

should be a good sweat

This needs more love.   

[FUN4FRASER]

That said think it has dropped by more in a week than just one observation of low scoring so indicative that you made a good trade.

Dung

Know youre a Wafford fan and bought them on the spread etc but Sky have stepped out of line and gone 7-4 for relegation

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

obv a mistake by Sky but they need punishing .It will be interesting to see if anybody can get on before they move the price

lasted 20 mins  11-8 now....13-8 still at sporting bet if anybody can get on...that price will go too

[DungBeetle]

These value chats are good Fraser but we already know they're staying up and you can't feast on the value pie

[Peter-27]

Rightio, as predicted, lots of value about:

Points Finish - Marcus Ericsson @ 6/1 with Get Victor. Sauber don't have the quickest car - but on a track like Spa, and with Thunderstorms predicted for 2PM tomorrow, Sauber have a shot of points if there is chaos ahead. If today's GP2 and GP3 races are anything to go by, there will be! Either way, 6/1 is too high at Spa for any semi-competitive car, suggest £10.

McLaren Total Finishers - 0 @ 3/1 with BeeWin. The Belgian GP is a car breaker, and with McLaren's issues, it'd be surprising if they get any car to the end of the race. Surprised to see this at 3/1.

Podium Finish - Sergio Perez @ 40/1 with BoilSports (palp?) or 6/1 with SkyeBet/Bill Hills or BeeWin. I expect this to happen tomorrow. Force India have the quickest car in sector one, are lacking in sector two, and are average in sector three. Sector one is where most of the overtaking is done though. I predict that Sergio will get past Valtteri on the opening lap, and I seriously doubt that anyone will be able to get past the super quick Force India down the straights, even with DRS. It's exceptionally hard to pass in sector two where the Force India is lacking. Suggest £20.

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 11/2 with PatrickPower. This bet is on the assumption you didn't get on when I previously suggested it. He starts 11th, but easily has the car underneath him to finish in the top six. Suggest £10.

Needs some advice on this one:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/safety-car

I'd say there is a 70% chance of a safety car, is 4/6 good enough?

FYI, I am now able to cash out my Force India season points bet for £1020. Not going to though  

[FUN4FRASER]

These value chats are good Fraser but we already know they're staying up and you can't feast on the value pie

Ha...you'd wax lyrical about Watford even if they played with 8 men every week  

[Peter-27]

That's a massive leak, Peter. I know the elders will laugh at me commenting on this, as I'm far from an expert, but you should be having more on a 33/1 that should be 10/1 than a 4/1 shot that should be 3/1. It's the difference in the percentage chance of it happening between what you think it is and what the bookies think it is that should dictate the bet size.

It's a big step from Ice Cream betting to adjust the way you bet to fit that model and if you're serious about your ROI, this should be a big boost for it.

This is one of the first things I was told when I got into sports betting. However, while I do understand the logic, I disagree intensely.

I think it's important to weigh up not only the value in the bet, but also the probability too.

The best way I can explain myself is through an example. Let's look at the race win market tomorrow for the Belgian GP. Roberto Merhi and Will Stevens are both 7500/1 to win the race. However, if you ran the race 7500 times - they would more than likely win two of them, albeit under exceptionally crazy circumstances. Does this mean we should bet big on Manor every GP? No, certainly not, surely?

Interestingly, I can now cash out my controversial "Going For Goals" spread bet for £25 

This is how it should work Peter.  You will make smallish chunks each week unless there is a market shock (ie someone gets a pasting).  I think you'll win by the way but not sure I like the risk profile!

I just need to hope there aren't many teams who score six and over this season. Fingers crossed, I'm feeling comfortable right now, but it would only take a few bad weeks to all go wrong.

Surely the risk profile depends on my financial situation, and in the nicest way possible, you don't know that 

[TightEnd]

Rightio, as predicted, lots of value about:

Points Finish - Marcus Ericsson @ 6/1 with Get Victor. Sauber don't have the quickest car - but on a track like Spa, and with Thunderstorms predicted for 2PM tomorrow, Sauber have a shot of points if there is chaos ahead. If today's GP2 and GP3 races are anything to go by, there will be! Either way, 6/1 is too high at Spa for any semi-competitive car, suggest £10.

McLaren Total Finishers - 0 @ 3/1 with BeeWin. The Belgian GP is a car breaker, and with McLaren's issues, it'd be surprising if they get any car to the end of the race. Surprised to see this at 3/1.

Podium Finish - Sergio Perez @ 40/1 with BoilSports (palp?) or 6/1 with SkyeBet/Bill Hills or BeeWin. I expect this to happen tomorrow. Force India have the quickest car in sector one, are lacking in sector two, and are average in sector three. Sector one is where most of the overtaking is done though. I predict that Sergio will get past Valtteri on the opening lap, and I seriously doubt that anyone will be able to get past the super quick Force India down the straights, even with DRS. It's exceptionally hard to pass in sector two where the Force India is lacking. Suggest £20.

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 11/2 with PatrickPower. This bet is on the assumption you didn't get on when I previously suggested it. He starts 11th, but easily has the car underneath him to finish in the top six. Suggest £10.

Needs some advice on this one:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/safety-car

I'd say there is a 70% chance of a safety car, is 4/6 good enough?

FYI, I am now able to cash out my Force India season points bet for £1020. Not going to though 

Man.

paddypower, a boylesports palp and bwin.

the trifecta!

[TightEnd]

anyway for what we can get on

£10 ericcson pointage bet victor 6/1

£20 Perez to podiate at 6/1

both are on

i can't do the rest. accounts closed/never open

[Ledders]

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

[Doobs]

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed. 

[Peter-27]

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed. 

I hate the whole palp thing, it's ludicrous. If I had more time, I would genuinely take this to the courts - it's grossly unfair in my opinion. If they make the mistake, they should pay.

[Tal]

That's a massive leak, Peter. I know the elders will laugh at me commenting on this, as I'm far from an expert, but you should be having more on a 33/1 that should be 10/1 than a 4/1 shot that should be 3/1. It's the difference in the percentage chance of it happening between what you think it is and what the bookies think it is that should dictate the bet size.

It's a big step from Ice Cream betting to adjust the way you bet to fit that model and if you're serious about your ROI, this should be a big boost for it.

This is one of the first things I was told when I got into sports betting. However, while I do understand the logic, I disagree intensely.

I think it's important to weigh up not only the value in the bet, but also the probability too.

The best way I can explain myself is through an example. Let's look at the race win market tomorrow for the Belgian GP. Roberto Merhi and Will Stevens are both 7500/1 to win the race. However, if you ran the race 7500 times - they would more than likely win two of them, albeit under exceptionally crazy circumstances. Does this mean we should bet big on Manor every GP? No, certainly not, surely?

Interestingly, I can now cash out my controversial "Going For Goals" spread bet for £25 

This is how it should work Peter.  You will make smallish chunks each week unless there is a market shock (ie someone gets a pasting).  I think you'll win by the way but not sure I like the risk profile!

I just need to hope there aren't many teams who score six and over this season. Fingers crossed, I'm feeling comfortable right now, but it would only take a few bad weeks to all go wrong.

Surely the risk profile depends on my financial situation, and in the nicest way possible, you don't know that 

You're being obtuse now, Peter. Betting IS probability. The best answer to disliking the swings of backing long shots is not to back fewer but to back more. If that is where you find the biggest errors from the bookies in assessing the likelihood of things happening, that is where you should be having the most bets.

Keep the tips coming and people will keep following you. It's good for us all to learn from this thread, though, and adjusting your bets and the sizes will make your tips even better. The maths thread is a goldmine for this stuff (Doobs wins).

[Tal]

I'm confused at the differential, is there any reason why I shouldn't have a good chunk on this Sergio Perez 40/1? Just opened a brand new boylesports account and first bet has been accepted. I assume it won't make it past tomorrow afternoon if he binks.

It is a clear palp.  Bet it and you get free rolled and your account closed. 

I hate the whole palp thing, it's ludicrous. If I had more time, I would genuinely take this to the courts - it's grossly unfair in my opinion. If they make the mistake, they should pay.

Now here we agree.