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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 13512223 times)
bergeroo
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Posts: 2193
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123270 on:
November 05, 2016, 10:39:12 PM »
I messed up the above stat, he has had a tiebreaker about 50% of the time and he has won more than 50% of those.
Anyhow I've bet. I'm happy to hear you think that it is a bad bet. Just as a guess what would you say the correct price of 7-6 Isner first set tomorrow Arb or anyone?
Where do you get that he is 6/4 shot to beat Murray in a breaker? I'd say it is closer than that.
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arbboy
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Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123271 on:
November 05, 2016, 10:43:01 PM »
Quote from: bergeroo on November 05, 2016, 10:39:12 PM
I messed up the above stat, he has had a tiebreaker about 50% of the time and he has won more than 50% of those.
Anyhow I've bet. I'm happy to hear you think that it is a bad bet. Just as a guess what would you say the correct price of 7-6 Isner first set tomorrow Arb or anyone?
Where do you get that he is 6/4 shot to beat Murray in a breaker? I'd say it is closer than that.
6/4 is my price. I only deal with my prices as 99% of other prices outside of betfair are mythical for real money. You can have as much as you want on it. PM me if you want a bet.
ps - i haven't had too much wine and i am totally sober before anyone says 'lolstella'!
«
Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 10:50:13 PM by arbboy
»
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arbboy
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123272 on:
November 05, 2016, 10:53:11 PM »
Quote from: bergeroo on November 05, 2016, 10:39:12 PM
I messed up the above stat, he has had a tiebreaker about 50% of the time and he has won more than 50% of those.
Anyhow I've bet. I'm happy to hear you think that it is a bad bet. Just as a guess what would you say the correct price of 7-6 Isner first set tomorrow Arb or anyone?
Where do you get that he is 6/4 shot to beat Murray in a breaker? I'd say it is closer than that.
I never said it was a bad bet i said as long as you think getting to a breaker is a 2/1 shot then you have a good bet. 11/4 best price a breaker is available. 4/9 no breaker is the bet i would imagine with 365 if you can get it.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-paris/john-isner-v-andy-murray/set-1-tie-break
Just to show how bad firms are at pricing these things generally the arbers who have the mythical accounts to get on will love this one.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-paris/john-isner-v-andy-murray/tie-break-in-match
«
Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 11:06:32 PM by arbboy
»
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exstream
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Posts: 2511
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123273 on:
November 05, 2016, 11:14:19 PM »
why would you be happy to hear arb thinks something is a bad bet
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Doobs
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Posts: 16580
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123274 on:
November 05, 2016, 11:33:55 PM »
Heffernan masterclass in the Breeders Cup turf on Highland Reel. Hadn't got a penny on, but a joy to watch.
Was 8 clear with half a mile to go.
https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/795031070651478016
Heffernan: "I was on a horse that handled the fast conditions well. He's straightforward, he's very sound and he stays hard."
«
Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 11:41:55 PM by Doobs
»
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Marky147
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123275 on:
November 05, 2016, 11:48:46 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on November 05, 2016, 11:33:55 PM
Heffernan masterclass in the Breeders Cup turf on Highland Reel. Hadn't got a penny on, but a joy to watch.
Was 8 clear with half a mile to go.
https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/795031070651478016
Heffernan: "I was on a horse that handled the fast conditions well. He's straightforward, he's very sound and he stays hard."
Yeah, superbly judged race.
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Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Doobs
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Posts: 16580
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123276 on:
November 05, 2016, 11:53:03 PM »
Not sure why you'd want to lay more than Betfair on Tepin in the mile at 23.40, but Hills seem to want to. The betfair price looks too big to me, so no idea why you'd want to go bigger.
I mean I really like Limato, but he is running over the wrong trip and Tepin is a bit of a beast. Makes no sense. Guess there is little chance of Tighty or Tikay popping by, but £50 Tepin with Hills at 4/1 seems a good idea.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
T_Mar
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Posts: 1446
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123277 on:
November 06, 2016, 12:08:51 AM »
Quote from: Doobs on November 05, 2016, 11:53:03 PM
Not sure why you'd want to lay more than Betfair on Tepin in the mile at 23.40, but Hills seem to want to. The betfair price looks too big to me, so no idea why you'd want to go bigger.
I mean I really like Limato, but he is running over the wrong trip and Tepin is a bit of a beast. Makes no sense. Guess there is little chance of Tighty or Tikay popping by, but £50 Tepin with Hills at 4/1 seems a good idea.
Alice Springs for me in this
Any thoughts in the Classic? Looks like good EW if we can get 1/4 odds the place
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Doobs
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123278 on:
November 06, 2016, 12:22:58 AM »
Quote from: T_Mar on November 06, 2016, 12:08:51 AM
Quote from: Doobs on November 05, 2016, 11:53:03 PM
Not sure why you'd want to lay more than Betfair on Tepin in the mile at 23.40, but Hills seem to want to. The betfair price looks too big to me, so no idea why you'd want to go bigger.
I mean I really like Limato, but he is running over the wrong trip and Tepin is a bit of a beast. Makes no sense. Guess there is little chance of Tighty or Tikay popping by, but £50 Tepin with Hills at 4/1 seems a good idea.
Alice Springs for me in this
Any thoughts in the Classic? Looks like good EW if we can get 1/4 odds the place
Probably a bit slow as the Tepin 4/1 has gone, but an each way double on that and Arrogate just can't be bad. Got to be up early in the morning
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
T_Mar
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Posts: 1446
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123279 on:
November 06, 2016, 12:30:40 AM »
Quote from: Doobs on November 06, 2016, 12:22:58 AM
Quote from: T_Mar on November 06, 2016, 12:08:51 AM
Quote from: Doobs on November 05, 2016, 11:53:03 PM
Not sure why you'd want to lay more than Betfair on Tepin in the mile at 23.40, but Hills seem to want to. The betfair price looks too big to me, so no idea why you'd want to go bigger.
I mean I really like Limato, but he is running over the wrong trip and Tepin is a bit of a beast. Makes no sense. Guess there is little chance of Tighty or Tikay popping by, but £50 Tepin with Hills at 4/1 seems a good idea.
Alice Springs for me in this
Any thoughts in the Classic? Looks like good EW if we can get 1/4 odds the place
Probably a bit slow as the Tepin 4/1 has gone, but an each way double on that and Arrogate just can't be bad. Got to be up early in the morning
Like the EW double idea - Arragate looks perfect for that ... I'm sticking with Alice Springs though 😉
GL
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Weetabix
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Posts: 212
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123280 on:
November 06, 2016, 12:41:39 AM »
Flintshire backers must be banging their head against a wall. Ironicus for me but this is a real tough one.
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arbboy
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Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123281 on:
November 06, 2016, 12:42:45 AM »
Quote from: bergeroo on November 05, 2016, 10:39:12 PM
I messed up the above stat, he has had a tiebreaker about 50% of the time and he has won more than 50% of those.
Anyhow I've bet. I'm happy to hear you think that it is a bad bet. Just as a guess what would you say the correct price of 7-6 Isner first set tomorrow Arb or anyone?
Where do you get that he is 6/4 shot to beat Murray in a breaker? I'd say it is closer than that.
Why do you say the breaker is closer than 6/4 but don't PM me with a bet amount you want to place? I don't get it. You tell other people to back something but you are not happy to put your own money down with me. Why is that? It doesn't have to be a big amount whatever is comfortable with yourself rollwise. It makes you look silly to say you make it much closer than 6/4, i offer you whatever you want at 6/4 and you don't back it for a copper coin. Why wouldn't you want to bet the 6/4 given your statement?
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arbboy
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Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123282 on:
November 06, 2016, 12:46:22 AM »
Some yank hick wagon in the studio put up that winner at 14/1 (bf sp 30/1!!!!!! available for bundles at 50/1 earlier). You got to love the yanks. VUL doobs. Cheers for the steer on tenpin.
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T_Mar
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Posts: 1446
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123283 on:
November 06, 2016, 12:48:40 AM »
UL doobs ... Alice Springs v poor ☹️
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bergeroo
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Posts: 2193
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #123284 on:
November 06, 2016, 12:49:05 AM »
Quote from: exstream on November 05, 2016, 11:14:19 PM
why would you be happy to hear arb thinks something is a bad bet
I think Arb knows a lot about tennis and betting. If I look stupid and he corrects me or disagrees with me then I've either learnt something or have some food for thought to ponder for future bets/handicapping etc.
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