Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

The November handicap is pretty difficult.  Lots of horses on the wrong ground/distance and the 5 places disappearing.

Struggle to look past the favourite (5/1 and 5 places would be nice! think 5/1 and the offer is ok) and maybe Neil's in Tighty's column.  Of all the wrong ground/distance horses, Qassem is very intersting.  It is a soft ground horse out of, what should be, a soft ground sire, and has been running in France.  Do you think it came over for the ground and Fabre got the distance completely wrong?  Seems unlikely?  But just about my favourite jockey/trainer combo.  I couldn't resist having a nibble on betfair at 20.  I am not sure I'd bother with the each way on such a horse though.

Can you just give me some guidance here please doobs.

The Favourite - best I can get at 5 places is 9/2, or 4 places @ 5/1. Which should I take?

The Road to Riches tip, same again, can only get 16/1 5 places, or 20/1 4 places.

Qassem - I can get around 20/1 on Betfair Exchange.

 

I have put 25 e/w at 5/1 4 places on Cape Cova.  Suggest taking 20/1 4 places on Neil's.  Maybe 25 e/w.

Put £20 win only on Qassem on the exchange at best you can.  Assuming 20ish is still there.  Don't go below 19.

Edit.  Pls confirm cape cova.  Price was going so had to snap take it.

[tikay]

The November handicap is pretty difficult.  Lots of horses on the wrong ground/distance and the 5 places disappearing.

Struggle to look past the favourite (5/1 and 5 places would be nice! think 5/1 and the offer is ok) and maybe Neil's in Tighty's column.  Of all the wrong ground/distance horses, Qassem is very intersting.  It is a soft ground horse out of, what should be, a soft ground sire, and has been running in France.  Do you think it came over for the ground and Fabre got the distance completely wrong?  Seems unlikely?  But just about my favourite jockey/trainer combo.  I couldn't resist having a nibble on betfair at 20.  I am not sure I'd bother with the each way on such a horse though.

Can you just give me some guidance here please doobs.

The Favourite - best I can get at 5 places is 9/2, or 4 places @ 5/1. Which should I take?

The Road to Riches tip, same again, can only get 16/1 5 places, or 20/1 4 places.

Qassem - I can get around 20/1 on Betfair Exchange.

 

I have put 25 e/w at 5/1 4 places on Cape Cova.  Suggest taking 20/1 4 places on Neil's.  Maybe 25 e/w.

Put £20 win only on Qassem on the exchange at best you can.  Assuming 20ish is still there.  Don't go below 19.

Edit.  Pls confirm cape cova. Price was going so had to snap take it.

CONFIRMED, thanks. Do I owe you anything for the last 2 weeks? I've been away & lost touch a bit.

Will try to sort the other 2 now.

Thanks.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Qassem.

£20 win @ 22 (21/1) Betfair Exchange.

BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Welcome back tikay.  Wasn't so great myself midweek.

The 2.25 looks another good spot for those who can get quarter first 3.

Absolutely So should go on the ground and there is a short priced favourite.  We get 9/8 the place which is slight odds on with bf.

Suggest 25 e/w Absolutely So with me.  Few more races to look at and Breeders cup tonight.  Might be back.

Fireworks/strictly/breeders cup.  Nobody in the whole world is having more fun tonight!

[tikay]

Dashing Star, £25 EW @ 20/1, Wm Hill Mobile.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Welcome back tikay.  Wasn't so great myself midweek.

The 2.25 looks another good spot for those who can get quarter first 3.

Absolutely So should go on the ground and there is a short priced favourite.  We get 9/8 the place which is slight odds on with bf.

Suggest 25 e/w Absolutely So with me.  Few more races to look at and Breeders cup tonight.  Might be back.

Fireworks/strictly/breeders cup/UKOPS.  Nobody in the whole world is having more fun tonight!

FYP

BOOKED, thank you.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

For those of you that use Wm Hill, their site has been unavailable for much of this week, & remains intermittently fragile.

I got this message from them this morning;


Earlier this week, our website and mobile products have, from time to time, been unavailable. We have been affected by a DDOS attack that a third party decided to carry out. It has been causing service disruption, but our technical teams have been working hard to resolve the issue.

 We're back up and running now, although there might be a few short interruptions over the next few days as we continue to mitigate the attack.

 We appreciate your patience while we work diligently to resolve any outstanding issues.

Kind regards,
The William Hill Team



These DDOS attacks are becoming more & more frequent, & harder to defend against. It's hard to see what motive there is, other than cyber vandalism, but most organisations get them from time to time, & they are a perfect pain to mitigate & defend against.

On the plus side, the other big online firms have all had a great week, taking up the slack.

[Doobs]

One last one.  Dinkun Diamond 12/1 with hills on the 1.50 at doncaster.  Suggest 25 e/w.

Has been running well recently.  Top jockey.  Should be round about the places.  Right on bf, so place terms are good.  Also get the offer with Hills.  Assume hills is working.

Don't think you owe me anything before today Tikay.

[tikay]

One last one.  Dinkun Diamond 12/1 with hills on the 1.50 at doncaster.  Suggest 25 e/w.

Has been running well recently.  Top jockey.  Should be round about the places.  Right on bf, so place terms are good.  Also get the offer with Hills.  Assume hills is working.

Don't think you owe me anything before today Tikay.

We are on, exactly as suggested.

BET PLACED

[Tal]

Think there might be a spot this week in Strictly.

The shape of the field is similar to the last few years: we have a poor but popular contestant, then a group of fairly similar standard people far above. The dance off format of the bottom two when votes and judges' scores are combined does throw up funny results sometimes.

Ed is terrible but gets votes. Daisy isn't popular but she looks absolutely fantastic in training. Laura is sketchy with the public but looks OK. Greg is probably the second weakest dancer but looks absolutely fine in training and has a comfortable dance for him this week in a Viennese Waltz.

Claudia is popular but her training footage shows her having a real balance problem in the Paso. The reason for that isn't her core (obviously) but because she's not betting her weight right. The appels (where you stamp your foot) are terrible and she's admitted on It Takes Two that she is worried about falling over when she does them. That is a very bad sign. She is also practicing in trainers, which is a concern, as, when you're struggling with your balance, you surely need to practice in the sort of shoes you'll be wearing on the night.

One of two things will happen if I am right. Either the judges will point out she's struggled (which she will admit on tv, as she has all week, so it won't provoke votes of sympathy or rage) or they'll fawn over her like they have in recent weeks (and the public won't like it, when they think someone has obviously been overmarked).

I can see a Pixie Lott style exit this weekend. Ed is saved by the public. Then we are left with two better people facing off. If true - and there will come a point soon where Ed doesn't escape the dance off - we need to imagine what that will look like. You are likely getting someone who is unpopular with the public but is scored well with the judges on the night. They will be odds on in a dance off to go through. Simon Webbe was perfect for that two years ago.

I think that's Daisy this year. Her Paso last week in the dance off was the best dance of the weekend. A good 36, no question. She's improved in both dance offs she's had. Again, that's a strong sign she can giant kill. This week, she is dancing a Viennese Waltz to Daisy Bell by Harry Dacre. That's a nice, simple song for those dance and she has wonderful footwork, long strides and the dance looks made for her.

Laura is a clear second favourite to go and offers no value at all.

I can see Claudia struggling tonight. Shes doing a Paso to a modern, bouncy pop song (a historically bad move).

On footage, Claudia loses to Daisy heads up. She probably gets saved against Greg. She beats Ed, obviously. Laura is a flip.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

Claudia Fragapane is 25/1 generally to be the next elimination. The reality is she's scored generously each week and the voting public have been kind to her, too. But there has to be a price and I'd happily set the chances of her going this weekend at higher than 4%.

It's not a price to go nuts with, but there's a perfectly fair £10 bet there to be had.

Incidentally, our long term bet on Daisy to win can't win unless the public take to her. If she does well tonight, maybe the tide can turn..? We can but hope.

[Doobs]

Welcome back tikay.  Wasn't so great myself midweek.

The 2.25 looks another good spot for those who can get quarter first 3.

Absolutely So should go on the ground and there is a short priced favourite.  We get 9/8 the place which is slight odds on with bf.

Suggest 25 e/w Absolutely So with me.  Few more races to look at and Breeders cup tonight.  Might be back.

Fireworks/strictly/breeders cup/UKOPS.  Nobody in the whole world is having more fun tonight!

FYP

BOOKED, thank you.

BET PLACED

This one has gone a bit wrong.  There were 9 when we bet (from 11) earlier, but 2 more have pulled out, so we only get 2 places.   Hopefully the other 2 races hold on to 16 runners.  Pretty bad when thet lose 4 from 11 on ground that is exactly as predicted.    

Can still win obv, just the bet isn't that great anymore.  

Edit the November handicap is down to 16 already.  Sigh.  Pls hold.  Luckily we backed one win only.

[Doobs]

One last one.  Dinkun Diamond 12/1 with hills on the 1.50 at doncaster.  Suggest 25 e/w.

Has been running well recently.  Top jockey.  Should be round about the places.  Right on bf, so place terms are good.  Also get the offer with Hills.  Assume hills is working.

Don't think you owe me anything before today Tikay.

We are on, exactly as suggested.

BET PLACED

I think he won the race on the near side, but they were a few lengths back on the far side. 

[superwomble]

Thanks for the cricket bet!

For those who were bullish on AFC Wimbledon. They are above 2/1 for the FA Cup vs Bury who have lost seven in a row. Thoughts? Full strength team from the Dons? Good price?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/bury-v-afc-wimbledon/winner

Like.

They are perfect for an away Cup tie. Bury had that early-season run of wins but even then just looked like relegation fodder having a good spell.

I hope you're right but I wonder if team news might be important. Ardley has seemed to be careful with his words in the last day or two about who will be playing due to the CrapATrade rubbish coming up. Poleon and Charles are definitely out and both are big misses. I know Bury have a lot of injuries though and are in very poor form so I'm hoping any team we do put out is good enough.

Barnett starts upfront instead of Elliott. Not good news for us.

[Doobs]

Welcome back tikay.  Wasn't so great myself midweek.

The 2.25 looks another good spot for those who can get quarter first 3.

Absolutely So should go on the ground and there is a short priced favourite.  We get 9/8 the place which is slight odds on with bf.

Suggest 25 e/w Absolutely So with me.  Few more races to look at and Breeders cup tonight.  Might be back.

Fireworks/strictly/breeders cup/UKOPS.  Nobody in the whole world is having more fun tonight!

FYP

BOOKED, thank you.

BET PLACED

This one has gone a bit wrong.  There were 9 when we bet (from 11) earlier, but 2 more have pulled out, so we only get 2 places.   Hopefully the other 2 races hold on to 16 runners.  Pretty bad when thet lose 4 from 11 on ground that is exactly as predicted.    

Can still win obv, just the bet isn't that great anymore.  

Edit the November handicap is down to 16 already.  Sigh.  Pls hold.  Luckily we backed one win only.

Absolutely So started at about 5/2 and then ran no race.  So we either had a bad bet or a good one, however you look at these things.

Cape Cova now 7/2 across the board in the November Handicap with 16 still in.  That is either a good or bad sign depending how you read what happened in the last rac.

[Doobs]

15 runners in the 3.35.